{"id":30489,"date":"2026-03-17T07:03:44","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T07:03:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/dolarin-guclenmesiyle-eur-usd-11500-seviyesinin-altina-gerilerken-piyasalar-yaklasan-merkez-bankasi-toplantilarina-odaklandi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T07:03:44","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T07:03:44","slug":"dolarin-guclenmesiyle-eur-usd-11500-seviyesinin-altina-gerilerken-piyasalar-yaklasan-merkez-bankasi-toplantilarina-odaklandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dolarin-guclenmesiyle-eur-usd-11500-seviyesinin-altina-gerilerken-piyasalar-yaklasan-merkez-bankasi-toplantilarina-odaklandi\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle EUR\/USD 1,1500 seviyesinin alt\u0131na gerilerken, piyasalar yakla\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131na odakland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD paritesi Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde gerileyerek, 1,1415\u20131,1410 b\u00f6lgesinden toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1,1500 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131na indi. Parite, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faiz karar\u0131 ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde haberlere kar\u015f\u0131 hassas kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\n\nABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talep g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; piyasalar Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini azaltt\u0131. Bu durum, \u201cGreenback\u201d olarak da an\u0131lan Dolar\u0131 May\u0131s 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n tuttu. \u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sert y\u00fckselirken, dikkat enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) risklerine ve iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n verece\u011fi mesajlara \u00e7evrildi.\n\n<h3>Merkez Bankas\u0131 Toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00d6ncesi Euro\/Dolar G\u00fcndemi<\/h3>\nEuro, enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ithal yak\u0131ta ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi (ekonominin geni\u015flemesini) yava\u015flatabilece\u011fi endi\u015feleriyle bask\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hisse senetleri olumlu seyrini korudu; ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan gemi ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na \u00fclkelerin destek vermesi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tercih edilen varl\u0131k) aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131.\n\nEuro, AB\u2019de 20 \u00fclke taraf\u0131ndan kullan\u0131l\u0131yor ve 2022\u2019de k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerinin %31\u2019ini olu\u015fturdu; g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama i\u015flem hacmi 2,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi. EUR\/USD, t\u00fcm d\u00f6viz (FX) i\u015flemlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unu olu\u015fturuyor; ard\u0131ndan EUR\/JPY (%4), EUR\/GBP (%3) ve EUR\/AUD (%2) geliyor.\n\nFrankfurt merkezli ECB y\u0131lda sekiz kez toplant\u0131 yapar ve hedefi enflasyonu %2\u2019de tutmakt\u0131r; kararlar, Ba\u015fkan Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n da yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir konsey taraf\u0131ndan al\u0131n\u0131r. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6rt ekonomisi\u2014Almanya, Fransa, \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya\u2014b\u00f6lge ekonomisinin %75\u2019ini olu\u015fturur.\n\nEUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1500 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bunu, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve Euro\u2019daki kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k y\u00f6nlendiriyor. Piyasa, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerini geciktirece\u011fine daha fazla fiyat bi\u00e7erken, \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 enerji krizi Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisini zay\u0131flatmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, bu haftaki merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde parite \u00fczerinde belirgin bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.\n\nDolar\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, son verilerle destekleniyor. \u201c\u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu\u201d (fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi, dalgal\u0131 g\u0131da ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rakan fiyat g\u00f6stergesi) hedefin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam etti; Ocak 2026 verisinde y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyrek nihai GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) verisi, ABD\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (bir \u00e7eyrek performans\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131la \u00e7evrilmi\u015f hali) %2,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi; bu, Avrupa\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle belirgin \u015fekilde z\u0131t.\n\n<h3>Opsiyon Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ve \u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131kan \u0130\u015flem Senaryolar\u0131<\/h3>\nEuro B\u00f6lgesi daha zor bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. 2026 \u015eubat d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP; \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu art\u0131\u015fta, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalan Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131 etkili. Ayn\u0131 anda ekonomi dura\u011fan; Almanya\u2019n\u0131n imalat PMI verisi (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralma, \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme sinyali) ge\u00e7en ay 44,2\u2019ye geriledi ve \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 ay daralma b\u00f6lgesinde kald\u0131. Bu \u201cstagflasyon\u201d (durgunluk + y\u00fcksek enflasyon) ortam\u0131, ECB\u2019yi yakla\u015fan karar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok zor bir konuma itiyor.\n\nT\u00fcrev (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu tablo, k\u0131sa vadede daha sert fiyat hareketlerine haz\u0131rl\u0131k anlam\u0131na geliyor. EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda 1 ayl\u0131k \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (piyasan\u0131n opsiyon fiyat\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklenen dalgalanma) %8,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011findeki %6,5 ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Bu, piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir harekete haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u201cStraddle\/strangle\u201d (y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon pozisyonu kurulan stratejiler) almak, a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sonras\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmadan (sert y\u00f6n hareketi) y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin faydalanmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131n temel (makro\/veri odakl\u0131) hik\u00e2ye, paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskinin devam\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Temmuz\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,1410 civar\u0131ndaki diplerin yeniden test edilmesi olas\u0131. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekleyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u201cput opsiyonu\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden faydalanan opsiyon) almay\u0131 veya \u201cbear put spread\u201d (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyet i\u00e7in iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 putla kurulan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f stratejisi) uygulamay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00d6denen \u201cprim\u201d (opsiyonun maliyeti) en fazla zarard\u0131r; bu hafta y\u00fcksek etkili g\u00fcndem riski varken bu yakla\u015f\u0131m daha temkinlidir.\n\nJeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de izlenmeli. Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi, Euro aleyhine pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riski, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 anl\u0131k piyasa fiyat\u0131ndan uzak olan) call opsiyonlar\u0131yla (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalanan opsiyon) korunabilir. Bu, merkez bankas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedik \u015fekilde dolar i\u00e7in g\u00fcvercin (faiz indirimi\/gev\u015feme e\u011filimi), euro i\u00e7in \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\/s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f) alg\u0131lanmas\u0131 halinde ya\u015fanabilecek sert toparlanmaya kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kritik hafta: EUR\/USD 1,1500 alt\u0131nda zorlan\u0131yor. Fed indirimi \u00f6telenirken dolar g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; petrol kaynakl\u0131 stagflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 euroyu s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; 1,1410 dip testi masada. ECB\/Fed mesajlar\u0131 y\u00f6n belirleyecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30489","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30489"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30489\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30489"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30489"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30489"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}