{"id":30487,"date":"2026-03-17T06:11:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T06:11:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rba-faiz-karari-oncesinde-aud-usd-asyada-daha-once-125-yukseldikten-sonra-07060a-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T06:11:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T06:11:40","slug":"rba-faiz-karari-oncesinde-aud-usd-asyada-daha-once-125-yukseldikten-sonra-07060a-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rba-faiz-karari-oncesinde-aud-usd-asyada-daha-once-125-yukseldikten-sonra-07060a-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA Faiz Karar\u0131 \u00d6ncesinde AUD\/USD, Asya\u2019da Daha \u00d6nce %1,25 Y\u00fckseldikten Sonra 0,7060\u2019a Geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD, \u00f6nceki seansta %1,25\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckseldikten sonra geriledi ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde 0,7060 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Avustralya Dolar\u0131, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) riskleri nedeniyle g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde faizi 25 baz puan (faizde 0,25 puan) art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmesiyle destek bulabilir.\n\nRBA\u2019n\u0131n, politika faizini (Official Cash Rate: bankalar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma maliyetini belirleyen ana faiz) %3,85\u2019ten %4,10\u2019a \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu ad\u0131m, G10 (geli\u015fmi\u015f 10 \u00fclke) merkez bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7inde faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na yeniden ba\u015flayan ilk banka olmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak. Piyasalar, bir sonraki ad\u0131mlara dair sinyal almak i\u00e7in Ba\u015fkan Michele Bullock\u2019un bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 izleyecek. Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Andrew Hauser ise \u0130ran\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara (arz \u015foku: \u00fcretim\/ta\u015f\u0131ma kesintisi kaynakl\u0131 sert fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) yol a\u00e7arak enflasyonu art\u0131rabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.\n\n

Rba Decision And Market Focus<\/h3>\nReuters anketine g\u00f6re ekonomistler faizin Mart\u2019ta %4,10\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde ise %4,35\u2019e olas\u0131 bir ad\u0131m gelmesini bekliyor. Westpac, arka arkaya faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k art\u0131\u015f) tahminine ge\u00e7ti. Bu beklenti, Avustralya tahvil getirilerini (tahvil faizi) ve para birimini destekleyebilir.\n\nABD Dolar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerilimin azalmas\u0131yla zay\u0131flad\u0131. Ancak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi beklentileri zay\u0131flad\u0131. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, enflasyon endi\u015felerini canl\u0131 tutuyor.\n\n

Policy Divergence And Trading Implications<\/h3>\nABD\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,5 seviyesinde kal\u0131c\u0131 seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine beklenenden daha ge\u00e7 ba\u015flamas\u0131 olas\u0131. Bu \u201cpolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d (iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi) AUD\/USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor ve parite 0,6650 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar temas\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirleyici.\n\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00fcndeme gelen jeopolitik riskler yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve WTI ham petrol (ABD referans petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) fiyat\u0131n\u0131 son haftalarda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolara ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu yeni enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131, merkez bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n sert dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu belirsizlik \u00f6nemli bir risk ve ayn\u0131 zamanda f\u0131rsat.\n\nBu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n AUD\/USD\u2019de \u201coynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n alma\u201dy\u0131 (fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket bekleyip buna g\u00f6re pozisyon alma) de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 3 ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %9,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndaki %7,2 dip seviyesine g\u00f6re art\u0131\u015f, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketi beklendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Uzun straddle gibi stratejiler (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak) her iki y\u00f6nde sert hareketlerden yararlanabilir.\n\nAyr\u0131ca Fed\u2019in RBA\u2019ya g\u00f6re daha \u015fahin (faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 savunan) duru\u015funu korumas\u0131yla paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 0,6500 seviyesine olas\u0131 hareket i\u00e7in AUD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almay\u0131 veya put spread (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p satarak maliyeti dengeleme) kurmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yans\u0131t\u0131rken i\u015flem maliyetini ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 hedefler.\n

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Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

G\u00f6zler RBA\u2019da: AUD\/USD 0,7060\u2019ta soluklan\u0131yor. 25 bp faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi Aussie\u2019yi desteklerken, Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi ve petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon riskleri paritede bask\u0131, oynakl\u0131k f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30487"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30487\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}