{"id":30466,"date":"2026-03-17T01:08:37","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T01:08:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-dolari-istikrar-kazanirken-euro-11500-seviyesine-yakin-yukseliyor-fed-ve-ecb-kararlari-bekleniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T01:08:37","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T01:08:37","slug":"abd-dolari-istikrar-kazanirken-euro-11500-seviyesine-yakin-yukseliyor-fed-ve-ecb-kararlari-bekleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-dolari-istikrar-kazanirken-euro-11500-seviyesine-yakin-yukseliyor-fed-ve-ecb-kararlari-bekleniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD Dolar\u0131 istikrar kazan\u0131rken Euro 1,1500 seviyesine yak\u0131n y\u00fckseliyor; Fed ve ECB kararlar\u0131 bekleniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (USD) son y\u00fckseli\u015finin ard\u0131ndan soluklanmas\u0131yla Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi ve pariteyi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen yedi ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinden yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. EUR\/USD 1,1497 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,70 artt\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi ise Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 10 ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 100,54 sonras\u0131nda 99,85 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.\n\nABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli limanlara y\u00f6nelmesi) Dolar\u2019a olan talebi desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu durum, EUR\/USD\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Piyasalar bu hafta ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; iki bankan\u0131n da faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi bekleniyor.\n\n<h3>Merkez Bankas\u0131 Mesajlar\u0131 Ve Petrol Kaynakl\u0131 Enflasyon<\/h3>\nPiyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda Christine Lagarde ve Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n verece\u011fi y\u00f6nlendirme (faiz ve ekonomi i\u00e7in ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck mesajlar) var. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksamalara ba\u011fl\u0131 y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesinde piyasalar ECB\u2019nin 2026\u2019ya kadar faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyordu; ancak \u015fimdi Temmuz\u2019a kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi tamamen fiyatlara yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda (piyasa bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 neredeyse kesin g\u00f6r\u00fcyor).\n\nABD taraf\u0131nda ise piyasalar bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nce en az iki faiz indirimi beklerken, \u015fimdi yaln\u0131zca bir indirim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Dot Plot\u2019u (Fed \u00fcyelerinin faiz tahminlerini g\u00f6steren nokta grafi\u011fi) ve Summary of Economic Projections\u2019\u0131, yani Ekonomik Tahminler \u00d6zeti\u2019ni (b\u00fcy\u00fcme, i\u015fsizlik, enflasyon ve faiz beklentileri) izleyerek para politikas\u0131n\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131na dair sinyal arayacak.\n\nTeknik a\u00e7\u0131dan EUR\/USD, 27 Ocak\u2019ta 1,2082\u2019de zirve yapt\u0131ktan sonra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Parite 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) 1,1740 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n 1,1690 alt\u0131nda bulunuyor. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: 0-100 aras\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ekle a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 24\u2019ten yakla\u015f\u0131k 34\u2019e toparland\u0131. MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama\/Iraksama: trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) negatif b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131. Diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 1,1600 ve 1,1700 civar\u0131nda; destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn durabilece\u011fi seviye) 1,1411 ard\u0131ndan 1,1350\u2019de.\n\n<h3>Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 Ve \u0130\u015flem Etkileri<\/h3>\nFed ile ECB aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (faiz ve s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k y\u00f6n\u00fcnde farkl\u0131la\u015fma) belirgin bi\u00e7imde geni\u015fledi. Kal\u0131c\u0131 ABD \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7), son olarak y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1\u2019e gelerek Fed\u2019i s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu korumaya itti; hen\u00fcz faiz indirimi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi. Bu tablo, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki \u201cen az bir indirim\u201d beklentisiyle ters y\u00f6nde.\n\nEuro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisi ise y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc daha fazla ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) yaln\u0131zca %0,1 ile zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP enflasyonu (Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) %2,6\u2019ya gerileyip d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, ECB daha net bir gev\u015feme e\u011filimi (faiz indirimine yatk\u0131n duru\u015f) sinyali veriyor; piyasalar Haziran\u2019a kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %75 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k Euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri kur, faiz, emtia gibi bir dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 kontratlar) bu ortam, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimle bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda i\u015flem fikrini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. 1,1000 civar\u0131ndaki eski destek seviyesine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren fiyat\u0131) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satmak prim geliri (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) \u00fcretebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu seviye art\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 konumunda. Bu strateji, EUR\/USD yatay kal\u0131rsa ya da d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.\n\nMerkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda sert hareket riski nedeniyle, sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc senaryoya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (maksimum zarar \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r) pozisyon almak i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir yoldur. \u00d6rne\u011fin 1,0500 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ve \u00fc\u00e7 ay vadeli put almak, paritedeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. Vade (expiry: opsiyonun son ge\u00e7erlilik tarihi) se\u00e7imi, hareket i\u00e7in zaman tan\u0131rken riski de kontrol alt\u0131nda tutar.\n\nOynakl\u0131k (volatility: fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi) H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik gerilimler nedeniyle ba\u015fl\u0131ca etken olmaya devam ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, yakla\u015fan ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI: T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) gibi kritik veriler etraf\u0131nda straddle veya strangle kullanabilir. Straddle (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call ve put almak) ve strangle (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call ve put almak) y\u00f6n konusunda taraf tutmadan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketine oynar; belirsizlik artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasada kritik hafta: Dolar soluklan\u0131nca EUR\/USD %0,7 y\u00fckseldi; ancak \u0130ran gerilimi ve petrol enflasyonu risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Fed-ECB mesajlar\u0131, dot plot ve teknik seviyeler y\u00f6n\u00fc belirleyecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30466","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30466","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30466"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30466\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30466"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30466"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30466"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}