{"id":30465,"date":"2026-03-17T01:07:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T01:07:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/enflasyon-endiseleri-surerken-fed-ve-japonya-merkez-bankasi-kararlari-oncesinde-yenin-guclenmesiyle-usd-jpy-15920ye-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T01:07:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T01:07:40","slug":"enflasyon-endiseleri-surerken-fed-ve-japonya-merkez-bankasi-kararlari-oncesinde-yenin-guclenmesiyle-usd-jpy-15920ye-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/enflasyon-endiseleri-surerken-fed-ve-japonya-merkez-bankasi-kararlari-oncesinde-yenin-guclenmesiyle-usd-jpy-15920ye-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Enflasyon endi\u015feleri s\u00fcrerken Fed ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle USD\/JPY 159,20\u2019ye geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 159,20 civar\u0131na geriledi ve %0,33 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Piyasalar \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ve per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 beklerken yen haftaya hafif g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek ba\u015flad\u0131.\n\nFed\u2019in faizi 3,50%\u20133,75% aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda olas\u0131 sevkiyat aksamas\u0131 riski enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131. CME FedWatch verileri (vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen \u201cfaiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d g\u00f6stergesi), ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nce faiz indirimi beklenmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\n\n

Dolar Endeksi Geri \u00c7ekildi<\/h3>\nABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 100,54 ile dokuz ay\u0131 a\u015fan zirveyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 100\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na indi. DXY, dolar\u0131 alt\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6stergedir.\n\nBoJ\u2019un politika faizini 0,75%\u2019te b\u0131rakmas\u0131, ancak enflasyon kal\u0131c\u0131 kal\u0131rsa ileride yeniden faiz art\u0131rma se\u00e7ene\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ba\u015fkan Kazuo Ueda\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme risklerine dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.\n\nJaponya, olas\u0131 arz kesintisi endi\u015feleri nedeniyle i\u00e7 talebi desteklemek amac\u0131yla stratejik petrol rezervlerinden (acil durum i\u00e7in tutulan devlet petrol stoklar\u0131) petrol vermeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Japon yetkililer ayr\u0131ca \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kur hareketleri\u201d uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yineledi; Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore, yen ve wonun h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131na ili\u015fkin ortak a\u00e7\u0131klama yapt\u0131.\n\nUSD\/JPY\u2019nin 159,20 civar\u0131na \u00e7ekildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu haftaki Fed ve BoJ toplant\u0131lar\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Ana endi\u015fe, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131. Brent t\u00fcr\u00fc ham petrol\u00fcn (k\u00fcresel petrol fiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in referans g\u00f6sterge) varil fiyat\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu durum enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc herkes i\u00e7in zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu belirsizlik, \u00f6nemli merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\n

Opsiyon Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Artmas\u0131 Bekleniyor<\/h3>\n\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasa, faizin mevcut 3,50%\u20133,75% aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan de\u011fi\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131r fiyatl\u0131yor. ABD\u2019de \u015eubat 2026 enflasyonu %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti; bu da politika yap\u0131c\u0131lara yak\u0131nda gev\u015feme (faiz indirimi) i\u00e7in az alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu nedenle temkinli bir ton bekleniyor; bu da dolar\u0131n di\u011fer para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 destekli kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.\n\nBu toplant\u0131 riski nedeniyle, bu hafta vadesi dolan USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan \u201cbeklenen\u201d dalgalanma) artmas\u0131 beklenir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sonras\u0131nda kurun yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 beklenenden daha sert hareket etmesinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in \u201cstraddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Straddle, ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejidir. Strangle ise kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 farkl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla benzer \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefler. Toplant\u0131lara yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a bu opsiyonlar\u0131n maliyeti artar; bu nedenle daha erken hareket etmek avantaj sa\u011flayabilir.\n\nPer\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin 0,75%\u2019te kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; ancak Ueda\u2019n\u0131n kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifadeler kritik olacak. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi dalgal\u0131 kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon) %2,8 ile y\u00fcksek seyrediyor ve ithal enerji maliyetleri i\u00e7 ekonomi \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. BoJ\u2019un enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi daha \u201ckat\u0131\u201d para politikas\u0131) sinyali vermesi, yenin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na neden olabilir.\n\nYeni \u201ca\u00e7\u0131\u011fa satanlar\u201d (yenin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine oynayanlar) i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk, do\u011frudan devlet m\u00fcdahalesi. Uyar\u0131lar giderek sertle\u015fiyor. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda, kur bug\u00fcnk\u00fcnden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyedeyken, para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etmi\u015fti. Japon ve G\u00fcney Koreli yetkililer art\u0131k kur zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hakk\u0131nda ortak a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yaparken, 159 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde ad\u0131m at\u0131lma ihtimali y\u00fcksek ve hafife al\u0131nmamal\u0131.\n\nBu artan m\u00fcdahale riski, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: \u015fu anki kurdan kazand\u0131rmayan, ancak sert harekette de\u011fer kazanabilen) USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 almay\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu opsiyonlar, yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketi (USD\/JPY\u2019nin d\u00fc\u015fmesi) ucuza hedefleme imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir ve Japon yetkililerin aniden piyasaya girmesi halinde y\u00fcksek getiri potansiyeli sunabilir. ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faiz seviyeleri aras\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131k) uzun vadede zay\u0131f yeni desteklemeye devam etse de, m\u00fcdahale k\u0131sa vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir risk yarat\u0131r.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed ve BoJ kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi USD\/JPY 159,20\u2019ye geriledi; DXY zirveden indi. Petrol \u015foku enflasyon kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcrken opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor; BoJ mesajlar\u0131 ve olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale yen i\u00e7in kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30465","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30465","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30465"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30465\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30465"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30465"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30465"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}