{"id":30464,"date":"2026-03-17T01:06:47","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T01:06:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/iran-riskine-iliskin-endiselerin-azalmasiyla-wti-ham-petrol-3un-uzerinde-duserek-varil-basina-100-dolardan-95-dolara-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T01:06:47","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T01:06:47","slug":"iran-riskine-iliskin-endiselerin-azalmasiyla-wti-ham-petrol-3un-uzerinde-duserek-varil-basina-100-dolardan-95-dolara-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/iran-riskine-iliskin-endiselerin-azalmasiyla-wti-ham-petrol-3un-uzerinde-duserek-varil-basina-100-dolardan-95-dolara-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran riskine ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin azalmas\u0131yla WTI ham petrol %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolardan 95 dolara geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"WTI ham petrol\u00fc pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %3\u2019ten fazla geriledi. 100,00 civar\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131 ve seans boyunca sat\u0131\u015flarla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95,00\u2019in alt\u0131nda kapatt\u0131.\n\nGe\u00e7en haftaki fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, panikle yap\u0131lan al\u0131mlar\u0131n (fiyat daha da artacak korkusuyla acele al\u0131m) etkisiyle 113,00\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu zirveden sonra fiyatlar art arda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015flar yapt\u0131. Ancak seviyeler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek.\n\n<h3>Jeopolitik \u015eok ve Arz Kesintisi<\/h3>\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131, ABD-\u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik askeri operasyonunu izledi. Bu kapanma, deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n (tankerle ta\u015f\u0131nan petrol\u00fcn) yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakt\u0131. Bu da \u015fubat ortas\u0131nda 65,00 civar\u0131ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015fi) ard\u0131ndan fiyatlar\u0131n \u00e7ok sert y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.\n\nYeniden a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in net bir takvim yok. Tankerlerin alternatif rotalara y\u00f6nlendirilmesi teslimat s\u00fcrelerine g\u00fcnler ekliyor. Haberlere g\u00f6re Beyaz Saray, Stratejik Petrol Rezervi\u2019nden (SPR: devletin acil durum i\u00e7in tuttu\u011fu petrol stoklar\u0131) koordineli bir sat\u0131\u015f\/serbest b\u0131rakma se\u00e7ene\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyor. Bu da fiyatlar \u00fczerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu.\n\nY\u00fcksek fiyatlar, \u00f6zellikle Asya\u2019da talebin zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00c7in\u2019in Ulusal Kalk\u0131nma ve Reform Komisyonu, spot piyasadan (an\u0131nda teslim fiyat\u0131yla yap\u0131lan piyasa) al\u0131m yapmak yerine devlet rezervlerini kullanmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor. Hindistan ise bo\u011faz hatt\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki Orta Do\u011fu \u00fcreticileriyle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>Opsiyon Piyasas\u0131 Sinyalleri ve \u0130\u015flem Yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131<\/h3>\nBu belirsizlik, mevcut opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131na yans\u0131yor. CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX: petrol opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) 35 ile y\u00fcksek seviyede ve 2025 \u00f6ncesi ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u00fczerinde. Bu durum, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ani bir arz \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in (sigorta gibi) daha y\u00fcksek bir bedel \u00f6demeye raz\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle i\u015flem yapanlar) bu y\u00fcksek \u201cima edilen volatilite\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) piyasan\u0131n yatay kalaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyorsa opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla f\u0131rsat yaratabilir.\n\nArz taraf\u0131nda piyasa s\u0131k\u0131 ve hata pay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. OPEC+ (OPEC ve ortak \u00fclkeler) ge\u00e7en hafta, ikinci \u00e7eyrek boyunca mevcut \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131n\u0131 koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit etti. EIA verileri (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) ise ABD kaya petrol\u00fc \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re) %1,5\u2019e kadar yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 arz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc fiyatlar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturuyor ve piyasay\u0131 her kesintiye daha hassas h\u00e2le getiriyor.\n\nAyn\u0131 anda talep endi\u015feleri fiyatlar i\u00e7in bir tavan olu\u015fturuyor. IMF, 2026 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini Avrupa ve Asya\u2019n\u0131n baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek %3,2\u2019den %3,0\u2019a indirdi. Bu durum, \u00f6nemli geli\u015fen \u00fclke piyasalar\u0131ndan gelen daha zay\u0131f ithalat verilerinde de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; yeni bir tetikleyici (fiyat\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7iren yeni bir geli\u015fme) olmadan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131yor.\n\nBu iki z\u0131t etken nedeniyle uygulanabilir bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, petrol\u00fcn belirli bir bantta kalaca\u011f\u0131 (\u00f6rne\u011fin 75\u201390 dolar) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle \u201cprim satmak\u201d olabilir. Bunun i\u00e7in demir kondor gibi stratejiler kullan\u0131labilir (fiyat belirli aral\u0131kta kal\u0131rsa kazand\u0131ran, opsiyonlarla kurulan \u00e7ok bacakl\u0131 yap\u0131). Ancak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ama etkisi b\u00fcy\u00fck yeni bir arz kesintisine kar\u015f\u0131, uzun vadeli ve ucuz al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) bir \u201ckoruma\u201d olarak tutmak riski dengeleyebilir.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Petrolde sert r\u00fczg\u00e2r: WTI %3\u2019ten fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, 95$ alt\u0131na indi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizi arz\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken OVX 35\u2019te; OPEC+ kotalar\u0131 sabit, talep endi\u015fesiyle bant ve prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30464","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30464"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30464\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30464"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30464"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30464"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}