{"id":30455,"date":"2026-03-16T22:02:28","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T22:02:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/nordea-ekonomistleri-savas-ve-enerji-belirsizligi-ortaminda-riksbankin-politika-faizini-2026ya-kadar-175te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T22:02:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T22:02:28","slug":"nordea-ekonomistleri-savas-ve-enerji-belirsizligi-ortaminda-riksbankin-politika-faizini-2026ya-kadar-175te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/nordea-ekonomistleri-savas-ve-enerji-belirsizligi-ortaminda-riksbankin-politika-faizini-2026ya-kadar-175te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Nordea ekonomistleri, sava\u015f ve enerji belirsizli\u011fi ortam\u0131nda Riksbank\u2019\u0131n politika faizini 2026\u2019ya kadar %1,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Nordea ekonomistleri, \u0130sve\u00e7 Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Riksbank) 19 Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi y\u00f6nlendirmek i\u00e7in belirledi\u011fi ana faiz) %1,75\u2019te sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Ayr\u0131ca Aral\u0131k raporundaki \u201cfaiz patikas\u0131n\u0131n\u201d (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n gelecek d\u00f6nem faiz tahmin \u00e7izgisi) korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun da 2026\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde faizin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nEnflasyon tahminlerinin sadece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fcncellendi\u011fi belirtilirken, enerji fiyatlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 (veriler netle\u015fene kadar kararlar\u0131 erteleme) te\u015fvik etti\u011fi ifade ediliyor.\n\nNordea, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya yan\u0131t olarak CPIF enflasyonu tahminini yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5 puan art\u0131rd\u0131. CPIF (sabit faizli konut kredisi etkisi ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) bu ay\u0131klama sayesinde faiz de\u011fi\u015fimlerinin enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc bozmas\u0131n\u0131 azaltmay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. Bu revizyonun, Nordea\u2019n\u0131n CPIF patikas\u0131n\u0131 Riksbank\u2019\u0131n Aral\u0131k de\u011ferlendirmesiyle uyumlu hale getirdi\u011fi s\u00f6yleniyor.\n\nPolitika faizi i\u00e7in risk dengesinin, belirgin bir \u201cfaiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan\u201d daha n\u00f6tr bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzun s\u00fcrmesi, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselten bir unsur olarak ili\u015fkilendiriliyor.\n\nBir y\u0131l \u00f6nce Riksbank\u2019\u0131n \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 benimsedi\u011fini ve politika faizinin 2026 boyunca %1,75\u2019te kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan kaynaklanan belirsizlik, dengeyi faiz indirimlerinden uzakla\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak bu temkinli duru\u015fun, enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 hafife ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\n\u015eubat 2026 i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan son CPIF verisi %2,4 ile, enflasyonun %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 bask\u0131, Riksbank\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru politika faizini %2,00\u2019ye y\u00fckseltmesine neden oldu. Piyasa \u015fimdi, talebi (harcama ve kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini) so\u011futmak i\u00e7in bir art\u0131\u015f daha ihtimalini fiyatl\u0131yor.\n\nFaiz swap\u2019lar\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d senaryosuna (faizlerin beklenenden daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) g\u00f6re pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi belirtiliyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc vadeli getiri e\u011frisi (gelecek vadelerdeki faiz beklentilerini g\u00f6steren fiyatlama) daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir Riksbank\u2019a i\u015faret ediyor. 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki \u201cfaizler yatay kal\u0131r\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc art\u0131k ge\u00e7erli de\u011fil. K\u0131sa vadeli swap\u2019larda sabit faiz \u00f6demek (\u201cfixed \u00f6demek\u201d: sabit oran\u0131 \u00fcstlenip de\u011fi\u015fken oran\u0131 almak), ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir pozisyon alma y\u00f6ntemi olabilir.\n\nBu durum kronu da do\u011frudan etkiledi. \u0130sve\u00e7 kronu euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken EUR\/SEK paritesi (1 euronun ka\u00e7 kron etti\u011fini g\u00f6steren kur) son aylarda 11,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinden 11,20\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131. Opsiyon (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131) taraf\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, yakla\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fckselen \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011fa\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) dikkat etmesi gerekiyor. SEK al\u0131m opsiyonu (kronun de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na oynayan \u201ccall\u201d) almak, Riksbank\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015funun s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik bir pozisyon olabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Riksbank 19 Mart\u2019ta faizi %1,75\u2019te tutabilir; ancak Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi CPIF\u2019i yukar\u0131 itince risk n\u00f6trle\u015fti. Piyasalar yeni art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini, \u015fahin swap e\u011frisini ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen kronu fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30455","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30455","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30455"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30455\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30455"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30455"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30455"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}