{"id":30454,"date":"2026-03-16T22:01:54","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T22:01:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securitiesten-ryan-mckay-kizildenizdeki-bogaz-noktalari-suudi-ihracat-risklerini-degistiriyor-kuresel-petrol-arzini-sikilastiriyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T22:01:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T22:01:54","slug":"td-securitiesten-ryan-mckay-kizildenizdeki-bogaz-noktalari-suudi-ihracat-risklerini-degistiriyor-kuresel-petrol-arzini-sikilastiriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securitiesten-ryan-mckay-kizildenizdeki-bogaz-noktalari-suudi-ihracat-risklerini-degistiriyor-kuresel-petrol-arzini-sikilastiriyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities\u2019ten Ryan McKay: K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki bo\u011faz noktalar\u0131 Suudi ihracat risklerini de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor, k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve Bab el-Mendeb \u00e7evresindeki aksamalar, Suudi ham petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n risk seviyesini ve y\u00fcklerin (kargolar\u0131n) alternatif g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlara y\u00f6nlendirilme (rerouting: sevkiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka rotaya \u00e7evirme) kabiliyetini de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7en g\u00fcnl\u00fck 16\u201317 milyon varillik (m b\/d: milyon varil\/g\u00fcn) ham petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 durmu\u015f durumda; bunun yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 milyon varil\/g\u00fcnl\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 bo\u011faz\u0131 baypas ederek (baypas kapasitesi: bo\u011faz\u0131 kullanmadan alternatif hatla ta\u015f\u0131ma) ta\u015f\u0131nabiliyor.\n\nSuudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz \u00fczerinden ihracata imk\u00e2n veren Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 (East-West) boru hatt\u0131nda sava\u015f \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla yakla\u015f\u0131k 5\u20135,5 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn ek baypas kapasitesi (spare capacity: gerekti\u011finde devreye al\u0131nabilen kullan\u0131lmayan kapasite) bulunuyor. Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 hatt\u0131 tam kapasite \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yanbu limanlar\u0131nda ise bu hafta ihracat i\u00e7in planlanan ham petrol y\u00fcklemeleri 13 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn, gelecek hafta i\u00e7in 5 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fczerinde.\n\n<h3>Yanbu \u0130hracat\u0131n\u0131n K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz Riskine Maruziyeti<\/h3>\nProgramlara g\u00f6re, Husi faaliyetleri K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019i etkilerse Yanbu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fl\u0131 ihracat\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %70\u201375\u2019i aksama riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilir. Yanbu ihracat\u0131n\u0131n %90\u2019\u0131 VLCC\u2019lere (Very Large Crude Carrier: \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck ham petrol tankeri) y\u00fcklenmek \u00fczere planlanm\u0131\u015f; bunun en az %80\u2019inin Asya pazarlar\u0131na veya Suudi Arabistan\u2019daki Cezan (Jazan) rafinerisine gitmesi bekleniyor.\n\nTam y\u00fckl\u00fc VLCC\u2019ler S\u00fcvey\u015f Kanal\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7emiyor. Bu da bir\u00e7ok y\u00fck i\u00e7in Bab el-Mendeb ge\u00e7i\u015fine i\u015faret ediyor. Planlanan VLCC ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2\u20132,5 milyon varile kadarl\u0131k k\u0131sm\u0131, bunun yerine kuzeye Ayn S\u00fchna\u2019ya (Ain Sukhna) gidebilir ve buradan SUMED boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak Sidi Kerir\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131nabilir. SUMED\u2019in kapasitesi g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2,5\u20132,8 milyon varil olsa da bu rota i\u00e7in \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n 2 milyon varilin biraz \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\n<h3>Al\u0131m-Sat\u0131m ve Piyasa Etkileri<\/h3>\nBu ihracat\u0131n \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc\u2014Yanbu\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131kan ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n %75\u2019ine kadar\u0131\u2014S\u00fcvey\u015f\u2019ten ge\u00e7emeyecek kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck VLCC\u2019lere y\u00fckleniyor. Bu durum, Asya pazarlar\u0131na ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in gemileri y\u00fcksek riskli b\u00f6lgeden g\u00fcneye inmeye zorluyor. M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019daki SUMED boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 kullanan alternatif rota zaten s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k; en fazla yakla\u015f\u0131k g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2,5 milyon varil ta\u015f\u0131yabiliyor ve bu da ciddi bir darbo\u011faz (bottleneck: kapasite yetersizli\u011fi nedeniyle olu\u015fan t\u0131kanma) yarat\u0131yor.\n\nYat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131ndan yararlan\u0131p riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in \u00f6n ay (front-month: vadesi en yak\u0131n) Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: ileri tarihli standart s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sat\u0131n alma stratejisine i\u015faret ediyor. Brent ile WTI ham petrol\u00fc aras\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131 (spread: iki \u00fcr\u00fcn aras\u0131ndaki fiyat makas\u0131) neredeyse 9 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, aksaman\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu varillerinde daha belirgin olmas\u0131 nedeniyle 2024 sonundan bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck fark. Bu makas\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha da a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\nPiyasa yap\u0131s\u0131 (market structure: vadeler aras\u0131ndaki fiyat dizilimi) de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor: Vadeli i\u015flem e\u011frisi (futures curve: farkl\u0131 vadelerin fiyat s\u0131ralamas\u0131) sert bir backwardation i\u00e7inde. Backwardation, yak\u0131n vade fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n uzak vadelerden daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131d\u0131r ve piyasada \u201chemen \u015fimdi\u201d ciddi arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na (supply shortage: arz\u0131n talebi kar\u015f\u0131layamamas\u0131) i\u015faret eder. Yak\u0131n vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerdeki bu prim (premium: ek fiyat), bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in May\u0131s veya Haziran 2026 vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerde uzun pozisyon (long position: fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu tablo, 2019\u2019daki Suudi tesis sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen fiyat hareketine benziyor ancak daha kal\u0131c\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiliyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kritik ge\u00e7itlerde alarm: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 durdu, Suudi baypas\u0131 Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131\u2019yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Yanbu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %70-75\u2019i K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz riskinde; SUMED darbo\u011faz. Brent-WTI makas\u0131 9$, backwardation sert; call opsiyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30454","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30454"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30454\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30454"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30454"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30454"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}