{"id":30452,"date":"2026-03-16T21:06:37","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T21:06:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ingingin-warren-pattersoni-enerji-piyasasi-gorunumunu-yukari-yonlu-revize-etti-hurmuz-bogazinda-kisa-sureli-bir-kapanma-beklentisini-rafa-kaldirdi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T21:06:37","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T21:06:37","slug":"ingingin-warren-pattersoni-enerji-piyasasi-gorunumunu-yukari-yonlu-revize-etti-hurmuz-bogazinda-kisa-sureli-bir-kapanma-beklentisini-rafa-kaldirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ingingin-warren-pattersoni-enerji-piyasasi-gorunumunu-yukari-yonlu-revize-etti-hurmuz-bogazinda-kisa-sureli-bir-kapanma-beklentisini-rafa-kaldirdi\/","title":{"rendered":"INGING\u2019in Warren Patterson\u2019\u0131 enerji piyasas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir kapanma beklentisini rafa kald\u0131rd\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"ING\u2019den Warren Patterson, k\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in temel senaryosunu g\u00fcncelledi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda iki haftal\u0131k kesinti varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rd\u0131. Yeni yakla\u015f\u0131ma g\u00f6re kesinti mart sonuna kadar veya daha uzun s\u00fcrebilir; ikinci ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte kademeli normalle\u015fme bekleniyor.\n\n\u00d6nceki temel senaryoda iki haftal\u0131k tam duru\u015f, ard\u0131ndan martta toparlanma ve nisana do\u011fru normale yak\u0131n ak\u0131\u015f varsay\u0131l\u0131yordu. Ancak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftas\u0131na girerken enerji ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in senaryo revize edildi.\n\n

G\u00fcncellenen Temel Senaryo Varsay\u0131mlar\u0131<\/h3>\nSenaryo 1 (yeni temel senaryo): Ak\u0131\u015flar mart sonuna kadar kapal\u0131 kal\u0131r; yo\u011fun \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ay sonuna dek s\u00fcrer. Ard\u0131ndan daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar ve artan diplomasiyle ikinci \u00e7eyrekte kademeli toparlanma ba\u015flar.\n\n\u00dcretim (sahadan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m), rafineriler ve LNG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz) tesisleri, depolama bask\u0131s\u0131 azald\u0131k\u00e7a kapasiteyi art\u0131r\u0131r. Mevcut boru hatt\u0131 kapasitesiyle baz\u0131 petrol H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fc baypas ederek ta\u015f\u0131nmaya devam eder. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek ba\u015f\u0131nda ak\u0131\u015flar normale yak\u0131n seviyelere d\u00f6ner.\n\nSenaryo 2 en iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm: Ak\u0131\u015flar mart sonuna kadar neredeyse tamamen kesintiye u\u011frar, nisanda iyile\u015fir. Arz (piyasaya fiziki \u00fcr\u00fcn giri\u015fi) may\u0131sta normale yakla\u015f\u0131r.\n\nSenaryo 3: \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalar nisan boyunca da yo\u011fun kal\u0131r; sonras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck yo\u011funluklu, uzun s\u00fcreli gerilime ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 diplomasiye d\u00f6ner. Gemilere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar enerji ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 uzun s\u00fcre bozar.\n\n

Piyasa Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n\u0130ki haftal\u0131k h\u0131zl\u0131 kesinti varsay\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ve s\u0131k dalgalanmas\u0131) \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Brent vadeli kontratlar\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 125 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanma g\u00f6stergesi) 75\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bu seviye belirgin piyasa stresine i\u015faret eder. Bu y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k ortam\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrek boyunca s\u00fcrmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nMart sonuna kadar s\u00fcren kesinti ve yava\u015f toparlanma \u00f6ng\u00f6ren yeni temel senaryo, petrol vadeli i\u015flem e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa vadeli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde sert \u201cbackwardation\u201d\u0131 (yak\u0131n vadeli vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n, daha ileri vadeli fiyatlardan belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131; anl\u0131k arz k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder) koruyabilir. Bu durum, d\u00fcnya petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir bo\u011fazdaki ani arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131r. Buna \u201ccalendar spread\u201d (farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler aras\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131 \u00fczerinden pozisyon alma) ile pozisyon almak bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.\n\nHaziran ve temmuz vadeli \u201ccall opsiyonu\u201d (belirli bir tarihe kadar\/belirli tarihte, belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak, normal ak\u0131\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek ba\u015f\u0131na kalabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle daha uyumlu. \u201c\u0130ma edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bu opsiyonlar pahal\u0131; ancak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma daha sert senaryoya kayarsa ek fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 riskini yans\u0131t\u0131r. Bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert hareket ihtimali, y\u00fcksek prim maliyetinden daha a\u011f\u0131r basabilir.\n\n2022\u2019deki arz \u015fokunda piyasan\u0131n verdi\u011fi tepki, ilk fiyat hareketlerinin sert olabilece\u011fini ve beklenenden uzun s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. O d\u00f6nemde en yak\u0131n vade fiyatlar\u0131 (front-month: teslimat\u0131 en yak\u0131n vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fme) birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde %30\u2019dan fazla y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Bu \u00f6rnek, h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm beklentisinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ve riskli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\n\nIEA \u00fcyelerinin stratejik petrol rezervlerinden (SPR: devletlerin kriz i\u00e7in tuttu\u011fu acil petrol stoklar\u0131) koordineli 60 milyon varil sal\u0131m a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 fiyatlara k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli tavan etkisi yapabilir. Ancak bu miktar kesintiye k\u0131yasla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019deki temel fiziki darbo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmez. SPR sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, krizin bitti\u011fi sinyali olarak de\u011fil, fiyatlar bir miktar geri geldi\u011finde uzun pozisyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynayan i\u015flem) i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\n\nEn sert senaryo ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nisana ta\u015farsa kesinti uzar. Bu durumda eyl\u00fcl veya aral\u0131k vadeli gibi daha uzun vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131 daha cazip hale gelebilir. B\u00f6yle bir tablo, enerji tedarik zincirinde kal\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ederek fiyatlar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda y\u00fcksek tutabilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskinde senaryo de\u011fi\u015fti: ING, iki haftal\u0131k kesinti varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rd\u0131. Ak\u0131\u015flar mart sonuna dek kapal\u0131 kalabilir; toparlanma 2\u00c7\u2019de kademeli, normale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f 3\u00c7 ba\u015f\u0131. Oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30452","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30452"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30452\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30452"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30452"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30452"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}