{"id":30451,"date":"2026-03-16T21:05:45","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T21:05:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rbc-ekonomisti-claire-fana-gore-subat-enflasyonu-18e-geriledi-ancak-vergi-degisiklikleri-karsilastirmalari-carpitiyor-ve-riskler-suruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T21:05:45","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T21:05:45","slug":"rbc-ekonomisti-claire-fana-gore-subat-enflasyonu-18e-geriledi-ancak-vergi-degisiklikleri-karsilastirmalari-carpitiyor-ve-riskler-suruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rbc-ekonomisti-claire-fana-gore-subat-enflasyonu-18e-geriledi-ancak-vergi-degisiklikleri-karsilastirmalari-carpitiyor-ve-riskler-suruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"RBC ekonomisti Claire Fan\u2019a g\u00f6re \u015eubat enflasyonu %1,8\u2019e geriledi; ancak vergi de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 \u00e7arp\u0131t\u0131yor ve riskler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Kanada\u2019da man\u015fet enflasyon \u015fubatta %1,8\u2019e geriledi. Y\u0131ll\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u015fubat ortas\u0131na kadar s\u00fcren GST\/HST tatilinden (mal ve hizmetler vergisi\/uyumlu sat\u0131\u015f vergisi indirimi) ve Nisan 2025\u2019te t\u00fcketici karbon vergisinin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n enerji T\u00dcFE\u2019sini (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesinden etkilendi.\n\nKanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek \u201ctrim\u201d ve \u201cmedian\u201d T\u00dcFE g\u00f6stergeleri \u015fubatta zay\u0131flad\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ortalama %2,3 ile yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n en yava\u015f h\u0131z\u0131na indi. (\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon, oynak kalemleri ay\u0131klay\u0131p daha kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat e\u011filimini \u00f6l\u00e7er; \u201ctrim\u201d en u\u00e7 fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimlerini k\u0131rpar, \u201cmedian\u201d ise sepetin ortanca fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini al\u0131r.)\n\n

\u00c7ekirdek Enflasyon Zay\u0131f Talebe \u0130\u015faret Ediyor<\/h3>\n\u00dc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda (son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n e\u011filimini y\u0131ll\u0131\u011fa \u00e7eviren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm) bu \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergeler \u015fubatta ortalama %1 oldu. Bu, Banka\u2019n\u0131n %2 hedefinin alt\u0131nda.\n\nArz kaynakl\u0131 sorunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 baz\u0131 g\u0131da \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde s\u00fcrd\u00fc; s\u0131\u011f\u0131r eti ve kahve bunlara \u00f6rnek. Metin, bunu olumsuz hava ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretimi aksatmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yor.\n\nMetne g\u00f6re, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcren gerilimlerle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n martta enerji enflasyonunu yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi bekleniyor. Ayr\u0131ca Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu haftaki toplant\u0131da gecelik faizi (bankalar\u0131n birbirine gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faizi; politika faizi) %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.\n\n\u015eubat enflasyon verisi izlenmesi gereken belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Man\u015fet enflasyon %1,8 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckken, Banka\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergeler \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k bazda %1\u2019e kadar yava\u015flad\u0131. Bu, i\u00e7eride zay\u0131f talebe kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, tedarik zinciri ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 gibi d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131lar\u0131n artmas\u0131yla \u00e7eli\u015fiyor.\n\n

Piyasa Fiyatlamas\u0131 ile Merkez Bankas\u0131 Temkini<\/h3>\nKanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu hafta gecelik faizi %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Ancak takas (swap) piyasas\u0131, haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %60\u2019a yak\u0131n fiyatl\u0131yor. (Swap piyasas\u0131, faiz beklentisinin t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc piyasad\u0131r.) Bu, Banka\u2019n\u0131n temkinli duru\u015fu ile piyasan\u0131n daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi e\u011filimli) beklentileri aras\u0131nda uyumsuzluk yarat\u0131yor. Piyasa, Banka\u2019n\u0131n yeni enflasyon \u015foklar\u0131na ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hafife al\u0131yor olabilir.\n\nEnerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f da dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131; WTI ham petrol (ABD referans ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) son d\u00f6nemde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyelerini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. 2022\u2019de enerji kaynakl\u0131 fiyat \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n, ekonominin di\u011fer b\u00f6l\u00fcmleri so\u011furken bile merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) tutmaya zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlanmal\u0131. Nisan 2025\u2019te t\u00fcketici karbon vergisinin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 da enerji kalemlerinde y\u0131ll\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da Banka\u2019ya beklemek i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e daha veriyor.\n\nBu tabloda, faizlerin piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almak olas\u0131 bir strateji olabilir. Bu, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerine y\u00f6nelik Bankers\u2019 Acceptance (BAX) vadeli i\u015flemlerine (k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bakmay\u0131 i\u00e7erebilir. Bu s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler, arz kaynakl\u0131 ve kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen (yap\u0131\u015fkan) enflasyonun faiz indirimlerini geciktirme riskini yeterince fiyatlam\u0131yor olabilir. Banka\u2019n\u0131n, gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne (faiz indirim s\u00fcreci) girmeden \u00f6nce birka\u00e7 ay daha net ve temiz veri g\u00f6rmek istemesi muhtemel.\n\nZay\u0131f i\u00e7 enflasyon ile y\u00fcksek emtia fiyatlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki gerilim, daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k d\u00f6nemine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu belirsizlikten yararlanmak i\u00e7in opsiyon (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev) kullanabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak) almak. Bu strateji, y\u00f6n se\u00e7meden, piyasada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareket oldu\u011funda kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir; \u00e7ekirdek verinin \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d sinyali mi yoksa petrol\u00fcn \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bask\u0131s\u0131 m\u0131 Banka\u2019n\u0131n bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 belirleyecek sorusuna tek tarafl\u0131 bahis gerektirmez.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kanada\u2019da enflasyon s\u00fcrprizi: Man\u015fet %1,8\u2019e inerken \u00e7ekirdek trim\/median %2,3\u2019e, 3 ayl\u0131kta %1\u2019e geriledi. Petrol 95$+ riski art\u0131r\u0131yor; BoC %2,25\u2019te kalabilir, piyasa hazirana %60 indirim fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30451"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30451\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}