{"id":30447,"date":"2026-03-16T21:03:07","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T21:03:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bob-savage-yatirimcilar-iran-gerilimi-ve-merkez-bankalariyla-yuzlesirken-dolar-petrol-ve-hisse-senedi-arasindaki-bag-degisiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T21:03:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T21:03:07","slug":"bob-savage-yatirimcilar-iran-gerilimi-ve-merkez-bankalariyla-yuzlesirken-dolar-petrol-ve-hisse-senedi-arasindaki-bag-degisiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bob-savage-yatirimcilar-iran-gerilimi-ve-merkez-bankalariyla-yuzlesirken-dolar-petrol-ve-hisse-senedi-arasindaki-bag-degisiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Bob Savage: Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u0130ran gerilimi ve merkez bankalar\u0131yla y\u00fczle\u015firken dolar, petrol ve hisse senedi aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011f de\u011fi\u015fiyor"},"content":{"rendered":"BNY\u2019nin Bob Savage\u2019\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ve merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131n yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu bir haftaya tepki vermesiyle ABD dolar\u0131, petrol ve hisse senetleri aras\u0131ndaki al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ba\u011flar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini aktar\u0131yor. Dolar\u0131n petrol ve hisselerle ili\u015fkisi, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki kal\u0131plardan farkl\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiliyor.\n\nSavage, piyasalar\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fine dair daha net bilgi bekliyor olabilece\u011fini belirtiyor. Ayr\u0131ca i\u015flemlerin, \u00e7eyrek sonuna giderken olas\u0131 bir \u201cdip\u201d (piyasada en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye) hedefiyle yap\u0131labilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.\n\n<h3>Petrol\/Alt\u0131n Oran\u0131 Sinyalleri<\/h3>\nSavage, \u201cpetrol\/alt\u0131n oran\u0131n\u0131\u201d (1 ons alt\u0131n al\u0131nabilmesi i\u00e7in ka\u00e7 varil petrol gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct) kald\u0131ra\u00e7 azalt\u0131l\u0131rken (bor\u00e7la b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fclen pozisyonlar\u0131n k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fclmesi) ABD dolar\u0131ndaki hareketleri izlemek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6sterge olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Oran, 1 ons alt\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na 86 varil ile zirve yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve \u015fimdi 50\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi.\n\nABD dolar\u0131, petrol ve hisse senetleri aras\u0131ndaki al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ba\u011flar \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yor. Bu durum, risk modellerini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar art\u0131k hisse senetleri veya ham petrol i\u00e7in tek bir \u201cbeklenen tepkiyi\u201d garanti etmiyor. Bu kopu\u015f, korunma (hedge: riski dengelemek i\u00e7in ters y\u00f6nde pozisyon alma) stratejilerini daha az g\u00fcvenilir hale getirebilir.\n\n\u0130zlenen \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergelerden biri petrol\/alt\u0131n oran\u0131. Oran 86\u2019dan gerileyerek bug\u00fcn 48,5 civar\u0131nda. Bu sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen, 2025\u2019teki piyasa bozulmalar\u0131 (al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f fiyat d\u00fczeninin bozulmas\u0131) \u00f6ncesindeki tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00fczerinde. Bu hareket, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte daha az riskli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131k) olarak tercih etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyonlar \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye (unwind: pozisyonlar\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131\/k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fclmesi) devam ettik\u00e7e dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir.\n\n<h3>\u00c7eyrek Sonu Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\nFed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) toplant\u0131s\u0131 gelecek hafta. \u015eubat 2026 ABD enflasyonunun %3,4 ile y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in temkinli duru\u015funu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu da tahvil vadeli i\u015flemleri (belirli bir tarihte, belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) ve d\u00f6viz paritelerinde (\u00f6r. EUR\/USD) dalgalanmalara oynayan opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. Cboe Volatilite Endeksi VIX (S&#038;P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d; piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) bu gerilimi yans\u0131tarak 22 seviyesinde y\u00fcksek seyrediyor.\n\nYat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, ilk \u00e7eyrek kapan\u0131rken olas\u0131 bir piyasa dibi i\u00e7in pozisyon ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, sert d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f hisse endekslerinde (broad endeksler) toparlanmaya t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) oynayabilir. Bu stratejiler; al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak veya \u201cbull call spread\u201d (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satma; maliyeti azalt\u0131p kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar) kurmak gibi y\u00f6ntemleri i\u00e7erebilir. Jeopolitik ya da merkez bankas\u0131 haberleri olumlu gelirse \u201crahatlama rallisi\u201d (k\u00f6t\u00fc haber bask\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131nca g\u00f6r\u00fclen h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f) g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasada ezber bozuldu: \u0130ran gerilimi ve Fed haftas\u0131nda dolar\u2011petrol\u2011hisse ba\u011flar\u0131 koptu. Bob Savage, petrol\/alt\u0131n oran\u0131ndaki 86\u2019dan 48,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn kald\u0131ra\u00e7 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi ve \u00e7eyrek sonu \u201cdip\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30447","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30447"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30447\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30447"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30447"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30447"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}