{"id":30442,"date":"2026-03-16T19:06:28","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T19:06:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/subat-ayinda-abd-sanayi-uretimi-aylik-bazda-02-artarak-01lik-beklentiyi-asti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T19:06:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T19:06:28","slug":"subat-ayinda-abd-sanayi-uretimi-aylik-bazda-02-artarak-01lik-beklentiyi-asti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/subat-ayinda-abd-sanayi-uretimi-aylik-bazda-02-artarak-01lik-beklentiyi-asti\/","title":{"rendered":"\u015eubat ay\u0131nda ABD sanayi \u00fcretimi ayl\u0131k bazda %0,2 artarak %0,1\u2019lik beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019de sanayi \u00fcretimi \u015eubat\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,2 artt\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015f, %0,1 olan piyasa tahmininin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.\n\nVeri, son ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi piyasa beklentileriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. \u00dcretimin, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden biraz daha fazla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.\n\n

Diren\u00e7li Ekonomi Anlat\u0131s\u0131<\/h3>\n\u015eubat ay\u0131ndaki beklentiyi a\u015fan bu sanayi \u00fcretimi verisi, ABD ekonomisinin \u201cdiren\u00e7li\u201d (faizler y\u00fcksek kalsa da b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcren) oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki istihdam raporuyla (tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam: maa\u015fl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim) birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Veriler, y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi 2025\u2019te beklenenden daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etkiledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.\n\nFaiz piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ilk faiz indirimini daha ileri bir tarihe itiyor; muhtemelen yaz aylar\u0131ndan sonras\u0131na. Haziran indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlamada daha da gerilemesi beklenir; ge\u00e7en hafta resmi veriler bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n %40\u2019a indi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Piyasada SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (SOFR: gecelik teminatl\u0131 repo faizi; vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler: gelecekteki faiz beklentisini fiyatlayan kontratlar) \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d beklentisini daha net yans\u0131tmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Bu ortamda, Fed\u2019in mevcut duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde put (put opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma) almak bir korunma (hedge: riski dengeleme) arac\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\nHisse senedi opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda tablo daha karma\u015f\u0131k: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomi verisi, faizler y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in hisseler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumsuz yorumlanabilir. S&P 500 opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) VIX endeksiyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr; VIX ge\u00e7en ay 14 olan dip seviyesinden 15,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Bu, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015firket g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ile geciken faiz indirimi beklentisinin ayn\u0131 anda fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, do\u011frudan \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanan sanayi ve temel malzeme sekt\u00f6rlerine a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermek; faize daha duyarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisselerine (y\u00fcksek de\u011ferleme, gelecekteki k\u00e2ra ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hisseler) g\u00f6re daha anlaml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n\nEmtialar i\u00e7in (commodity: ham madde) ilk etki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. \u00d6zellikle sanayi metalleri ve enerjide g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olumlu. Bak\u0131r fiyat\u0131, 2025 ortas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 4,50 dolar\/libre diren\u00e7 seviyesini (diren\u00e7: y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) yeniden test ederken, bu \u00fcretim verisi fiyatlara temel destek sa\u011flayabilir ve \u201ck\u0131r\u0131lma\u201d (breakout: direncin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131) ihtimalini art\u0131rabilir. Ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (futures: gelecekte teslimat\/fiyat \u00fczerinden i\u015flem g\u00f6ren kontrat) uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n artmas\u0131 beklenebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc resmi veriler ABD rafineri giri\u015flerinin (rafinerilerin i\u015fledi\u011fi ham petrol miktar\u0131) \u00fc\u00e7 haftad\u0131r y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nGenel olarak, yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentisine \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131 varl\u0131klardaki pozisyonu azaltmak daha uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u015eubat ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisi yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; e\u011fer veri son d\u00f6nemdeki %3,1 e\u011filiminin \u00fczerinde gelirse Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin bekleyi\u015fini\u201d (hawkish pause: faiz indirmeden, s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu koruyarak bekleme) g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu nedenle sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc call (call opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131; y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya emtia vadeli i\u015flemleriyle b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/aktivite g\u00fcc\u00fcne pozisyon almak; ayn\u0131 anda y\u00fcksek faiz riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olur.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz veri: ABD sanayi \u00fcretimi \u015eubat\u2019ta %0,2 artt\u0131, beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. \u201cDiren\u00e7li ekonomi\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi \u00f6telendi, tahvil faizleri sertle\u015fti; sanayi\/emtia \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30442","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30442","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30442"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30442\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30442"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30442"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30442"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}