{"id":30439,"date":"2026-03-16T19:03:46","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T19:03:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securitiesten-daniel-ghali-cin-talebinin-kuresel-gumus-alimlarini-destekledigini-ancak-gorunen-stoklarin-hala-kisa-pozisyonlardan-fazla-oldugunu-soyluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T19:03:46","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T19:03:46","slug":"td-securitiesten-daniel-ghali-cin-talebinin-kuresel-gumus-alimlarini-destekledigini-ancak-gorunen-stoklarin-hala-kisa-pozisyonlardan-fazla-oldugunu-soyluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securitiesten-daniel-ghali-cin-talebinin-kuresel-gumus-alimlarini-destekledigini-ancak-gorunen-stoklarin-hala-kisa-pozisyonlardan-fazla-oldugunu-soyluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities\u2019ten Daniel Ghali, \u00c7in talebinin k\u00fcresel g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fini, ancak g\u00f6r\u00fcnen stoklar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 k\u0131sa pozisyonlardan fazla oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"\u00c7in\u2019in g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f talebi, \u015eanghay\u2019daki ithalat arbitraj penceresini a\u00e7\u0131k tutuyor; bu da k\u00e2rl\u0131 ithalat i\u015flemlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 destekliyor. Arbitraj penceresi, \u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015ftan hemen \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemden bu yana a\u00e7\u0131k.\n\nSHFE\u2019deki (\u015eanghay Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Borsas\u0131) son fiyat farklar\u0131, stoklar\u0131n yeniden borsa kasalar\u0131na d\u00f6nmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Tezg\u00e2h \u00fcst\u00fc (borsa d\u0131\u015f\u0131) stoklar SHFE depolar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131k\u00e7a, yurti\u00e7inde arz k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 endi\u015feleri azald\u0131.\n\nCME\u2019deki (Chicago Ticaret Borsas\u0131) depo stoklar\u0131 geriledi; ancak toplam stok h\u00e2l\u00e2 345 milyon ons. Bayilerin (arac\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n) k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flem (short futures: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisiyle a\u00e7\u0131lan sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00f6zle\u015fme) pozisyonlar\u0131 125 milyon ons seviyesinde. Bu pozisyonlar, uygun yarg\u0131 alan\u0131nda (teslimat\u0131n kabul edildi\u011fi \u00fclke\/kurallar seti) fizik\u00ee metal ile tamamen kar\u015f\u0131lanabilir; b\u00f6ylece CME depolar\u0131nda 220 milyon ons kal\u0131r.\n\nPiyasa anlat\u0131s\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek stok kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131na (mevcut stoklar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonlar\u0131\/teslimat y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini kar\u015f\u0131lama g\u00fcc\u00fc) do\u011fru ilerliyor. Bu, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen a\u00e7\u0131klar (arz-talep fark\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131) ve k\u00fcresel serbest dola\u015f\u0131mdaki metal miktar\u0131n\u0131n (free float: k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131labilen, piyasada eri\u015filebilir arz) artmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor.\n\n\u015eanghay arbitraj penceresinin a\u00e7\u0131k kalmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu durum metali \u00c7in\u2019e \u00e7ekerek g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Bu etki, \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fiyat s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicisiydi. Mart 2026 ba\u015f\u0131na ait veriler \u015eanghay priminin (yerel fiyat\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 fiyata g\u00f6re ek fark\u0131) %5-7 band\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak stoklar art\u0131k SHFE depolar\u0131na geri ak\u0131yor; bu da belirgin yurti\u00e7i k\u0131tl\u0131k endi\u015felerinin hafifledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nCME depolar\u0131ndaki \u00e7ekili\u015fler (depolardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar) dikkat \u00e7ekici; ancak bunlar\u0131n genel piyasa \u00fczerindeki etkisini abartmamak gerekir. Bu hafta itibar\u0131yla CME\u2019de teslimata haz\u0131r kay\u0131tl\u0131 kasalarda (registered vaults: vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerde teslimata uygun olarak kay\u0131tl\u0131 stok) yakla\u015f\u0131k 320 milyon ons bulunuyor ve bu miktar, bayilerin k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 fazlas\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc arz, 2021\u2019de denenene benzer bir \u201cfizik\u00ee s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u201dn\u0131n (physical squeeze: teslimata uygun metalin yetersiz kalmas\u0131yla fiyat\u0131n zorla yukar\u0131 itilmesi) mevcut ortamda \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal oldu\u011funu destekliyor.\n\nBu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte k\u0131sa vadede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyelin s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. S\u00f6zle\u015fme y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini kar\u015f\u0131layacak kadar fizik\u00ee metal varken, sert ve kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek zorla\u015f\u0131r. Bu nedenle t\u00fcrev (derive) i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, yukar\u0131 hareketi kovalamakta temkinli olmas\u0131 ve ani y\u00fckseli\u015fleri \u201cg\u00fcce sat\u0131\u015f\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015fte sat\u0131\u015f) f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekir.\n\nGeride d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasa anlat\u0131s\u0131 2025\u2019e k\u0131yasla belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fti. Odak art\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131 arzdan ziyade, daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131klar ve daha eri\u015filebilir metal sayesinde artan stok kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131nda. Bu durum, \u00c7in\u2019in son sanayi \u00fcretimi verilerine de yans\u0131yor: \u015eubat\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,5\u2019lik sa\u011flam ama ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc olmayan art\u0131\u015f, talebin ta\u015fk\u0131n de\u011fil istikrarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte \u00c7in ithalat arbitraj\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 destekliyor; ancak SHFE\u2019ye stok d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc k\u0131tl\u0131k kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. CME\u2019de 320 mn ons \u201cregistered\u201d stok shortlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor; fizik\u00ee s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma ihtimali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30439","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30439","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30439"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30439\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30439"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30439"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30439"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}