{"id":30413,"date":"2026-03-16T12:06:06","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T12:06:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/onemli-bir-merkez-bankalari-haftasinda-abd-dolari-ve-petrolun-yukselisi-seansin-erken-saatlerinde-duraksiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T12:06:06","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T12:06:06","slug":"onemli-bir-merkez-bankalari-haftasinda-abd-dolari-ve-petrolun-yukselisi-seansin-erken-saatlerinde-duraksiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/onemli-bir-merkez-bankalari-haftasinda-abd-dolari-ve-petrolun-yukselisi-seansin-erken-saatlerinde-duraksiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00d6nemli bir merkez bankalar\u0131 haftas\u0131nda, ABD dolar\u0131 ve petrol\u00fcn y\u00fckseli\u015fi seans\u0131n erken saatlerinde duraks\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"Ham petrol, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan hafif geriledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) ise ge\u00e7en hafta %1,5\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckseldikten sonra pazartesi erken saatlerde gev\u015fedi. Beklenen veriler: Kanada\u2019n\u0131n \u015fubat T\u00dcFE\u2019si (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7er), ABD \u015fubat Sanayi \u00dcretimi (fabrikalar\u0131n \u00fcretim hacmi) ve mart NY Empire State \u0130malat Endeksi (New York b\u00f6lgesinde imalat faaliyetini g\u00f6steren anket).\n\nBu hafta politika toplant\u0131lar\u0131: RBA (Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131), BoC (Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131), Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131), ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131), BoE (\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131) ve BoJ (Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131). Hafta sonu ABD ordusu, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Harg Adas\u0131\u2019ndaki hedefleri vurdu ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 aksarsa petrol altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n da hedef al\u0131nabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.\n\n<h3>H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki Geli\u015fmeler<\/h3>\nTrump, m\u00fcttefikleri H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi i\u00e7in destek vermeye \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131. Wall Street Journal, Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n gemilere refakat etmek i\u00e7in bir koalisyon a\u00e7\u0131klamaya haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. AB d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakanlar\u0131 denizde olas\u0131 bir yan\u0131t\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; \u0130ngiltere ise may\u0131n temizleme dronlar\u0131 g\u00f6ndermeyi planl\u0131yor.\n\nJaponya Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Sanae Takaichi, Japon gemilerini korumaya y\u00f6nelik se\u00e7eneklerin de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fini, ancak donanman\u0131n g\u00f6nderilmesine dair mevcut bir plan olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. ABD Enerji Bakan\u0131 Chris Wright, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde sona erece\u011fini; petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n (piyasaya sunulan miktar) toparlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini bekledi\u011fini ifade etti.\n\nWTI (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) 100 dolar\u0131 test etti, sonra 98 dolara do\u011fru \u00e7ekildi. DXY, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 100,50\u2019nin \u00fczerini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra (May\u0131s\u2019tan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye) 100,30 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.\n\nAlt\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, 4.970 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc, ard\u0131ndan yeniden 5.000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. EUR\/USD 1,1450\u2019ye do\u011fru toparland\u0131, GBP\/USD 1,3250 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131, AUD\/USD ise 0,7000\u2019in \u00fczerine %0,5\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckseldi. Piyasa, RBA\u2019n\u0131n 25 baz puan (bp: y\u00fczde 0,25) art\u0131\u015fla faizi %4,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karabilece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>\u00d6nemli Piyasa Seviyeleri ve Hareketler<\/h3>\nUSD\/JPY ge\u00e7en hafta %1\u2019den fazla y\u00fckseldikten sonra 159,50\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi. Japonya maliye bakan\u0131, d\u00f6vizde (FX: yabanc\u0131 para piyasas\u0131) kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar atmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.\n\n2025\u2019in ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesiyle petrol 100 dolar\/varile (varil: petrol \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc birimi) do\u011fru sert y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma 2025 ilkbahar\u0131 boyunca b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, WTI k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Koalisyon \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki deniz varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 arz g\u00fcvenini (tedarik kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131) yeniden sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. WTI bug\u00fcn 85 dolar\/varil civar\u0131nda ve k\u00fcresel stoklar (envanter: depolardaki toplam petrol) dengeli. Bu tablo, jeopolitik riskin zirvesinin geride kalm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yatay piyasadan (dar bantta gidip gelen fiyat) faydalanan stratejiler, \u00f6rne\u011fin strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir. (Strangle: fiyat\u0131n dar aral\u0131kta kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu yaz\u0131p prim toplama; opsiyon: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131.)\n\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l neredeyse t\u00fcm b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131ndan koordineli faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bekleniyordu. Mart 2026\u2019da ise tablo tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. ECB\u2019nin \u201cfaizler daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalacak\u201d mesaj\u0131 vermesi, para politikas\u0131 fark\u0131n\u0131n (divergence: merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi) EUR\/USD\u2019de uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 (long: y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m) destekleyebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\n2025\u2019teki kayg\u0131lar alt\u0131n\u0131 5.000 dolar seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu seviye o g\u00fcnden beri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Ortado\u011fu gerilimi ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olsa da kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u00fcresel enflasyon alt\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. ABD\u2019de \u015fubat 2026 T\u00dcFE %2,8 geldi. 5.000 dolara do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmeler, al\u0131m opsiyonu (call opsiyonu: fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc hem merkez bankalar\u0131ndan hem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lardan talebin s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.\n\nJapon yetkililerin USD\/JPY 160,00\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken Mart 2025\u2019te m\u00fcdahale sinyali verdi\u011fi ve sonras\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Ancak bu m\u00fcdahale kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131; b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz fark\u0131 (interest rate differential: iki \u00fclke faizi aras\u0131ndaki makas) pariteyi yeniden 158,50\u2019ye do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc, yeni bir m\u00fcdahalenin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olsa da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu senaryoda USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) satmak, prim (opsiyon geliri) toplamak i\u00e7in bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. (Carry trade: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para birimiyle bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7erek faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleme.)\n\nAvustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l h\u00e2l\u00e2 faiz art\u0131r\u0131yordu; ancak \u015fimdi, enflasyonun ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte %3,4\u2019e gerilemesiyle faizleri sabit tutuyor. RBA\u2019n\u0131n n\u00f6tr duru\u015fu, baz\u0131 geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde s\u00fcren s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcyle kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131k g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da AUD\u2019yi carry trade i\u00e7in \u201cfonlama para birimi\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getirili para ile bor\u00e7lanma) haline getirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin, faiz fark\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in AUD\/MXN\u2019de AUD\u2019yi sat\u0131p Meksika Pezosu\u2019nu almak gibi.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasalar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc bu hafta merkez bankalar\u0131nda: Petrol H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskleriyle 100$\u2019\u0131 test edip geri \u00e7ekildi, DXY gev\u015fedi. Alt\u0131n 5.000$ \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunuyor; veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve volatilite belirleyici.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30413","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30413"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30413\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30413"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30413"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30413"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}