{"id":30407,"date":"2026-03-16T10:17:03","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T10:17:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/commerzbankin-volkmar-bauru-yen-enerji-fiyatlarina-ragmen-dolara-karsi-sinirli-geriledi-euro-karsisinda-yukseldi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T10:17:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T10:17:03","slug":"commerzbankin-volkmar-bauru-yen-enerji-fiyatlarina-ragmen-dolara-karsi-sinirli-geriledi-euro-karsisinda-yukseldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/commerzbankin-volkmar-bauru-yen-enerji-fiyatlarina-ragmen-dolara-karsi-sinirli-geriledi-euro-karsisinda-yukseldi\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019\u0131n Volkmar Baur\u2019u: Yen, enerji fiyatlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen dolara kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geriledi, euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi"},"content":{"rendered":"Japon yeni, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fer kaybetti. Euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ise hafif y\u00fckseldi. USD\/JPY 160 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131yor ancak yen, ay ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana dolara kar\u015f\u0131 toplamda yaln\u0131zca %2\u2019nin biraz \u00fczerinde geriledi.\n\nPetrol ve do\u011falgaz ithalat\u0131, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu ge\u00e7en y\u0131l verilerine g\u00f6re Japonya\u2019n\u0131n GSYH\u2019sinin (bir \u00fclkenin toplam ekonomik \u00fcretimi) yakla\u015f\u0131k %3\u2019\u00fcne denk geliyor. 2022\u2019de bu oran GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %4\u2019\u00fcyd\u00fc. Uzayan bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, yen \u00fczerinde ilave bask\u0131 yaratabilir.\n\n

Piyasan\u0131n Oda\u011f\u0131 Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda<\/h3>\nPiyasalar per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da izliyor. Bu, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci faiz karar\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131. Faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, nisanda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 olarak g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nBoJ\u2019dan net bir y\u00f6nlendirme, nisanda ad\u0131m at\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek yeni destekleyebilir. E\u011fer politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar temkinli kal\u0131rsa, piyasalar gelecek hafta bu beklentileri azaltabilir; bu da yeni zay\u0131flatabilir.\n\nUSD\/JPY bu hafta 160 seviyesini test edebilir. Bu durumda, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin olas\u0131 ad\u0131m\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Yaz\u0131 ayr\u0131ca d\u00f6viz kurunda k\u0131sa vadeli dalgalanmalara dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.\n\nJapon yeni bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda, ancak enerji maliyetlerindeki son s\u0131\u00e7ramaya bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda beklendi\u011fi kadar de\u011fil. WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) fiyat\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n yeniden \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %15 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; bu ortamda yenin g\u00f6rece istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. \u015eimdi USD\/JPY\u2019nin h\u0131zla 170 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 izleniyor; bu seviye piyasada \u201cpsikolojik e\u015fik\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen, alg\u0131 ve i\u015flemleri etkileyen \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6lge.\n\n

M\u00fcdahale Riskleri ve Dalgalanma G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\nBu gerilim, i\u00e7 verilerdeki \u00e7eli\u015fkilerle besleniyor. Japonya \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun son verilerine g\u00f6re, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) \u015fubatta %2,2 ile y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti. Bu durum, BoJ\u2019un \u201cpolitika normalle\u015fmesini\u201d (\u00e7ok gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131ndan daha s\u0131k\u0131 ve ola\u011fan ko\u015fullara ge\u00e7i\u015f) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ekonomi zay\u0131f: 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde %0,2 daralma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu da BoJ\u2019u faizleri h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131rma konusunda temkinli yap\u0131yor.\n\nBu nedenle g\u00f6zler haftan\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131nda. Genel beklenti faizlerin sabit kalmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olsa da piyasa, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte ek bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. BoJ\u2019dan \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d bir dil (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na mesafeli, destekleyici para politikas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan s\u00f6ylem) gelmesi, trader\u2019lar\u0131n (k\u0131sa vadeli al-sat yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n) dolar\u0131n yene kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fini zorlamas\u0131 i\u00e7in i\u015faret olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\n\nBu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY\u2019de 170 seviyesinin test edilmesini m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131l\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flem yapanlar, 2024 sonbahar\u0131nda kur 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalesini hat\u0131rlamal\u0131. Benzer bir ad\u0131m yeniden gelebilir; bu da kurda sert ve ani bir ters hareket yaratabilir.\n\nOrta vadede, BoJ\u2019un bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131rmaya devam etmesi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ise gev\u015femeye (faiz indirimi ve daha destekleyici duru\u015f) y\u00f6nelmesiyle yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini bekliyoruz. Ancak \u015fimdilik ana tema artan oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta hareket etmesi). B\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanan opsiyon stratejileri (belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle kurulan taktikler) bu belirsizlikte etkili olabilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yen, enerji \u015fokuna ra\u011fmen diren\u00e7li: Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ay ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri sadece %2\u2019yi a\u015fan kay\u0131p, USD\/JPY\u2019yi 160\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131rken g\u00f6zler BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalede.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30407","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30407"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30407\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30407"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30407"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30407"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}