{"id":30397,"date":"2026-03-16T10:08:34","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T10:08:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/fed-karari-oncesinde-petrol-100-dolara-yakinlasiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T10:08:34","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T10:08:34","slug":"fed-karari-oncesinde-petrol-100-dolara-yakinlasiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/analysis\/fed-karari-oncesinde-petrol-100-dolara-yakinlasiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Karar\u0131 \u00d6ncesinde Petrol 100 Dolara Yak\u0131nla\u015f\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2026\/05\/Oil3-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41758\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131kanlar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>ABD Hazine tahvili faizleri (tahvil getirisi) Asya i\u015flemlerinde geriledi; piyasalar oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Fed\u2019in yakla\u015fan faiz karar\u0131na \u00e7evirdi.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Petrol Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim nedeniyle 100 dolar civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrini koruyor. Bu durum enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor ve faiz indirimi beklentilerini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>K\u00fcresel piyasalar haftaya temkinli ba\u015flad\u0131. <strong>ABD Hazine tahvili faizleri Asya i\u015flemlerinde geriledi<\/strong>. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki artan jeopolitik gerilimin (siyasi-askeri risklerin) enflasyona etkisini yeniden de\u011ferlendiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&#39;We will remember&#39;: Trump warns countries to help secure Strait of Hormuz as shipping stalls <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/MCxPNFBlHN\">https:\/\/t.co\/MCxPNFBlHN<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBC\/status\/2033441165291270582?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 16, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Hareketin arkas\u0131nda, yak\u0131ndan izlenen <strong>Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131<\/strong> var. Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar, y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ve artan jeopolitik riskin ekonomi \u00fczerindeki etkisini \u00f6l\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>LSEG verilerine<\/strong> g\u00f6re (LSEG: Londra Borsas\u0131 Grubu\u2019nun piyasa veri sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131s\u0131), para piyasalar\u0131 (k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa) bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bg1SiAor1U\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">yaln\u0131zca bir faiz indirimi<\/a><\/strong> fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra beklentilerde sert de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor. Petrol y\u00fckselmeden \u00f6nce yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha gev\u015fek bir para politikas\u0131 (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz) bekliyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Petrol Rallisi Enflasyon Beklentilerini De\u011fi\u015ftiriyor<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu yeniden fiyatlaman\u0131n (piyasan\u0131n beklentileri yeniden ayarlamas\u0131n\u0131n) ana nedeni, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 kesinti ve belirsizliklerle petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n sert y\u00fckselmesi oldu. Ham petrol\u00fcn y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, <strong>enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun<\/strong> (enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla gelen genel fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finin) d\u00fcnya genelinde merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimi s\u00fcrecini geciktirebilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Petrol fiyat\u0131 y\u00fckseldi\u011finde, ula\u015ft\u0131rma ve \u00fcretim maliyetleri artar; bu da t\u00fcketici enflasyonuna daha h\u0131zl\u0131 yans\u0131r. Bu nedenle piyasalar yak\u0131n vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc faiz indirimleri beklentisini azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed \u00d6ncesi Tahvil Faizleri Geriledi<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Enflasyon endi\u015feleri s\u00fcrse de, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi pozisyon al\u0131rken ABD tahvil faizleri erken i\u015flemlerde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geriledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The US Treasury market has erased all its gains for the year as the war-driven surge in oil prices sets investors panicking about both inflation and growth risks <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/0WciMP5xFA\">https:\/\/t.co\/0WciMP5xFA<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2033317077759533369?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 15, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi<\/strong> (Fed faiz beklentilerine en duyarl\u0131 g\u00f6sterge) <strong>2,5 baz puan d\u00fc\u015ferek %3,706<\/strong> oldu. <strong>10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 2,4 baz puan gerileyerek %4,259<\/strong>, <strong>30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 1,8 baz puan d\u00fc\u015ferek %4,889<\/strong> seviyesine indi (Tradeweb). Baz puan, y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; \u00f6rne\u011fin 2,5 baz puan = 0,025 y\u00fczde puan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tahvil faizlerindeki geri \u00e7ekilme, piyasalar\u0131n <strong>jeopolitik risk<\/strong> ile <strong>kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon<\/strong> bask\u0131s\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki dengeyi Fed\u2019in nas\u0131l kuraca\u011f\u0131na dair daha net sinyal bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Teknik Analiz<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi hafif petrol, <strong>CL-OIL<\/strong>) <strong>97,41 dolar<\/strong> civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Piyasa, fiyat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k <strong>119,43 dolar<\/strong> tepeye ta\u015f\u0131yan sert s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yatay seyirde (konsolidasyon: belirli aral\u0131kta dalgalanma) kalmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu hareket sonras\u0131 fiyatlar 90\u2019l\u0131 dolarlar\u0131n ortas\u0131nda dengelendi; bu da ay ba\u015f\u0131ndaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131ktan (sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyat dalgalar\u0131ndan) sonra yeni bir denge arand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2026\/05\/image-19-1024x472.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-44533\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde petrol, \u00f6nemli hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. Hareketli ortalama, fiyat\u0131n belirli g\u00fcnlerdeki ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 alarak trendi g\u00f6steren basit bir g\u00f6stergedir. <strong>5 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama (93,12)<\/strong> ve <strong>10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck (87,16)<\/strong> h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor ve mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda. <strong>20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck (76,66)<\/strong> ve <strong>30 g\u00fcnl\u00fck (72,35)<\/strong> ise daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu fark, son y\u00fckseli\u015fin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n) korundu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yak\u0131n diren\u00e7 (fiyat\u0131n zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 tavan) <strong>100\u2013105 dolar<\/strong> band\u0131nda. Bu b\u00f6lgenin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma (fiyat\u0131n band\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunmas\u0131) <strong>110 dolara<\/strong> do\u011fru alan a\u00e7abilir. <strong>119 dolar<\/strong> zirvesi yukar\u0131da temel e\u015fik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ilk destek (fiyat\u0131n tutunabildi\u011fi taban) <strong>93\u201395 dolar<\/strong> civar\u0131nda. Bunun alt\u0131nda <strong>90 dolar<\/strong> \u00e7evresinde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; bu seviye hem \u00f6nceki k\u0131r\u0131lma b\u00f6lgesiyle hem de k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckselen ortalamalarla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Genel tabloda petrol\u00fcn ana trendi <strong>yukar\u0131<\/strong>, ancak oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek. Piyasa 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda sindirme s\u00fcrecinde. <strong>90\u201395 dolar<\/strong> band\u0131n\u0131n korunmas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcr. <strong>100 dolar\u0131n<\/strong> a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">G\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Petrol dalgal\u0131 seyrederken ve jeopolitik risk s\u00fcrerken, piyasalar bu hafta <strong>Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> izliyor. Ama\u00e7, faizlerin bundan sonraki seyrine dair y\u00f6n bulmak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n (Fed\u2019in) <strong>faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi<\/strong> bekleniyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, enerji \u015fokunun (enerji fiyat\u0131ndaki ani art\u0131\u015f\u0131n) enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yeniden art\u0131r\u0131p art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair Fed\u2019in de\u011ferlendirmesini dikkatle izleyecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Central banks from Washington to London to Jakarta are about to make their first assessment of the economic damage wrought by the conflict between the US and Iran <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ntIIDK0YDe\">https:\/\/t.co\/ntIIDK0YDe<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2032914767594111251?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 14, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u015eimdilik piyasalar, <strong>enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert hareketler, enflasyonun seyri ve merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong> birbirini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde etkiledi\u011fi uzun bir belirsizlik d\u00f6nemine haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S\u0131k Sorulan Sorular<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>ABD Tahvil Faizleri Asya \u0130\u015flemlerinde Neden D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor?<\/strong> <br>Tahvil faizleri, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015fan Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evirmesi ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ekonomik etkisini yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesiyle geriledi. Artan enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fine dair temkin artt\u0131.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Mevcut ABD Tahvil Faizleri Hangi Seviyede?<\/strong> <br>Tradeweb verilerine g\u00f6re <strong>2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 2,5 baz puan d\u00fc\u015ferek %3,706<\/strong>, <strong>10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 2,4 baz puan gerileyerek %4,259<\/strong>, <strong>30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 1,8 baz puan d\u00fc\u015ferek %4,889<\/strong> oldu.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol Fiyat\u0131 Faiz Beklentileri \u0130\u00e7in Neden \u00d6nemli?<\/strong> <br>Petrol y\u00fckselince enerji ve ula\u015ft\u0131rma maliyetleri artar, bu da enflasyonu yukar\u0131 iter. Bu nedenle piyasalar faiz indirimi beklentisini azalt\u0131r; merkez bankalar\u0131 enflasyonu kontrol etmek i\u00e7in faizi daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutabilir.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Piyasalar Fed\u2019den Ne Bekliyor?<\/strong> <br>LSEG verilerine g\u00f6re para piyasalar\u0131, yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131da <strong>Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> ve y\u0131l genelinde <strong>yaln\u0131zca bir faiz indirimi<\/strong> olmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma Faiz Beklentilerini Nas\u0131l Etkiledi?<\/strong> <br>\u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015fesini art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc faiz indirimi beklentilerini geri \u00e7ekmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed \u00f6ncesi piyasalarda tansiyon y\u00fcksek: ABD tahvil getirileri Asya\u2019da gerilerken, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 petrol 100 dolar civar\u0131nda. Enflasyon kayg\u0131s\u0131 faiz indirimi umutlar\u0131n\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyor; y\u0131l i\u00e7in tek indirim fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30397"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30397\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}