{"id":30336,"date":"2026-03-14T01:03:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-14T01:03:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ara-secim-dongusu-mevsimselligi-kapanis-fiyati-trendlerine-gore-sp-500un-nisanda-zirve-yapabilecegine-isaret-ediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-14T01:03:50","modified_gmt":"2026-03-14T01:03:50","slug":"ara-secim-dongusu-mevsimselligi-kapanis-fiyati-trendlerine-gore-sp-500un-nisanda-zirve-yapabilecegine-isaret-ediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ara-secim-dongusu-mevsimselligi-kapanis-fiyati-trendlerine-gore-sp-500un-nisanda-zirve-yapabilecegine-isaret-ediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Ara se\u00e7im d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc mevsimselli\u011fi, kapan\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131 trendlerine g\u00f6re S&#038;P 500\u2019\u00fcn Nisan\u2019da zirve yapabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"19 Aral\u0131k tarihli g\u00fcncelleme, ABD\u2019de ara se\u00e7im olan y\u0131llara \u00f6zg\u00fc mevsimsel e\u011filimi (ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llarda belirli d\u00f6nemlerde fiyatlar\u0131n benzer y\u00f6nde hareket etme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131) ekledi ve 18 Nisan civar\u0131nda bir zirve \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Mevsimsellik grafi\u011fi kapan\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 kullan\u0131yor ve fiyat\u0131n g\u00f6reli (y\u00fczdesel\/kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131) hareketini g\u00f6steriyor.\n\n\u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada 7 Mart (dip), 11 Mart (zirve), 13 Mart (dip) ve 20 Mart civar\u0131nda daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir zirve i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan tarihler yer ald\u0131. Bu tarihler yakla\u015f\u0131k kabul edildi; art\u0131\/eksi 5 i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fc sapma pay\u0131 vard\u0131.\n\n<h3>Model \u015eimdiye Kadar Nas\u0131l \u0130lerledi<\/h3>\n\u015eu ana kadar endeks, kapan\u0131\u015f baz\u0131nda 6 Mart\u2019ta dip yapt\u0131 ve 9 Mart\u2019ta zirve g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ard\u0131ndan 13 Mart\u2019ta geriledi. 13 Mart\u2019ta bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fc ya da en ge\u00e7 sonraki haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda bir y\u00fckseli\u015f, trend de\u011fi\u015fimini teyit etmenin bir yolu olarak anlat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\n\nBir tablo, mevsimsel \u00f6nemli zirve ve dipleri bu y\u0131lki hareketlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. 11 ana d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131n 8\u2019i yak\u0131n e\u015fle\u015fti, 3\u2019\u00fc e\u015fle\u015fmedi; uyum oran\u0131 %73 oldu.\n\n\u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen patika; 13 Mart civar\u0131nda dip, 20 Mart\u2019a kadar y\u00fckseli\u015f, ard\u0131ndan iki haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve son olarak 18 Nisan\u2019daki zirveye do\u011fru final y\u00fckseli\u015fiydi. Bu senaryo, ikinci bir g\u00f6rselde Elliott Dalga say\u0131m\u0131yla da (piyasan\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f-d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fclerini \u201cdalgalar\u201d halinde sayarak trendi okumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan teknik analiz y\u00f6ntemi) g\u00f6sterildi.\n\n<h3>Bir Sonraki D\u00f6nem \u0130\u00e7in \u0130\u015flem Plan\u0131<\/h3>\nSon ekonomik veriler bu bak\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u015eubat 2026 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlardaki y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) beklentinin biraz \u00fczerinde %3,4 geldi. Bu, son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikledi ve VIX oynakl\u0131k endeksini (S&#038;P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) yeniden 18 seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n tedirgin oldu\u011funu; ancak fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 itmek i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e arad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\n\nAra se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131 modeli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya devam ederse, mevcut zay\u0131fl\u0131k al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olabilir. Yol haritas\u0131, \u015fu s\u0131ralar bir dip olu\u015ftu\u011funu ve 21 Mart civar\u0131nda bir zirveye do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015f zemini haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemleri yapanlar\u0131n (dayana\u011f\u0131 hisse\/endeks olan, fiyat\u0131 o varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) gelecek hafta i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli bu yukar\u0131 hareketi dikkate almas\u0131 gerekir.\n\nBunu de\u011ferlendirmek isteyenler i\u00e7in, maj\u00f6r endekslerde vadesi Mart sonuna yak\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak veya y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread kurmak (ayn\u0131 vadede bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir call satarak maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) daha temkinli bir se\u00e7enek olabilir. Ama\u00e7, 21 Mart civar\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 zirveye kadar beklenen y\u00fckseli\u015ften pay almak ve riski net tan\u0131mlamakt\u0131r.\n\nAncak modelin bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131 da \u00f6nemli. Mart sonundaki zirvenin ard\u0131ndan mevsimsel model, Nisan ba\u015f\u0131na kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k iki haftal\u0131k bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131nda k\u00e2r almay\u0131 ve sonras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc yeni pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi (\u00f6r. Nisan vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put almak: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesi gerekir.\n\nNisan ba\u015f\u0131ndaki bu olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ard\u0131ndan 19 Nisan civar\u0131ndaki daha belirgin ara se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131 zirvesine do\u011fru son bir y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in yeniden f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. Fiyat hareketleri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; piyasan\u0131n bu tarihsel patikada kal\u0131p kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 teyit edilmelidir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ara se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131 mevsimselli\u011fi bu y\u0131l %73 uyumla \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor: 13 Mart civar\u0131 dip sonras\u0131 21 Mart\u2019a y\u00fckseli\u015f, ard\u0131ndan iki haftal\u0131k geri \u00e7ekilme ve 18-19 Nisan\u2019da final zirvesi; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30336","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30336","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30336"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30336\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30336"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30336"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30336"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}