{"id":30335,"date":"2026-03-14T01:03:02","date_gmt":"2026-03-14T01:03:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/commerzbanktan-henry-hao-perakende-satislar-ve-yatirimlar-geride-kalirken-cinde-uretim-artisinin-yuzde-55-civarinda-olmasini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-14T01:03:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-14T01:03:02","slug":"commerzbanktan-henry-hao-perakende-satislar-ve-yatirimlar-geride-kalirken-cinde-uretim-artisinin-yuzde-55-civarinda-olmasini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/commerzbanktan-henry-hao-perakende-satislar-ve-yatirimlar-geride-kalirken-cinde-uretim-artisinin-yuzde-55-civarinda-olmasini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019tan Henry Hao, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar geride kal\u0131rken \u00c7in\u2019de \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 5,5 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Commerzbank K\u0131demli Ekonomisti Dr. Henry Hao, a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00c7in verilerinin \u00fcretim ile yurt i\u00e7i talep (\u00fclke i\u00e7indeki t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m iste\u011fi) aras\u0131nda fark g\u00f6sterece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Sanayi \u00dcretimi\u2019nin (fabrika ve madenlerdeki \u00fcretim) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,5 gelmesi, ye\u015fil teknoloji (elektrikli ara\u00e7, batarya, g\u00fcne\u015f paneli gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck karbonlu \u00fcr\u00fcnler) ihracat\u0131n\u0131n ise %21,8 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\nPerakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n (hanehalk\u0131 al\u0131\u015fveri\u015f harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,0 d\u00fczeyinde kalaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor; bu da t\u00fcketimin \u00fcretime g\u00f6re daha zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Ay Takvimi\u2019ne g\u00f6re Yeni Y\u0131l (\u00c7in Yeni Y\u0131l\u0131) d\u00f6neminde turizm hizmetleri destekleyebilir; ancak otomobil ve beyaz e\u015fya gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck tutarl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlere talebin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.\n\n<h3>\u00dcretim ve Talep Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131<\/h3>\nSabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n (makine, te\u00e7hizat ve in\u015faat gibi uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mlar) 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki daralman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,5 civar\u0131nda gelmesi bekleniyor. K\u0131sa vadeli art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, ekipman yenilemelerinden (\u015firketlerin \u00fcretim makinelerini g\u00fcncellemesi) kaynaklanaca\u011f\u0131; daha geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 altyap\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n (yol, demiryolu, enerji ve su gibi kamu projeleri) etkisinin ise daha sonra g\u00f6r\u00fclmesinin muhtemel oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor.\n\nAltyap\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 deste\u011fin 2. \u00e7eyrekten itibaren g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi bekleniyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc rekor tutardaki tahvil ihrac\u0131yla (devletin bor\u00e7lanma senedi satarak fon toplamas\u0131) sa\u011flanan kayna\u011f\u0131n kullan\u0131ma girmesi zaman al\u0131yor. Altyap\u0131n\u0131n daha belirgin katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.\n\nA\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00c7in verilerinin \u201ciki vitesli\u201d bir ekonomiye i\u015faret etmesi bekleniyor; bu da \u201c\u00e7ift i\u015flem (pairs trading)\u201d gibi bir stratejiyi g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. \u00c7ift i\u015flem, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131kta \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazanma amac\u0131yla al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) al\u0131rken zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131kta \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyon\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazanma amac\u0131yla sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) almay\u0131 ifade eder. Sanayi \u00fcretiminin %5,5 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n %3,0 ile geride kalmas\u0131, sanayi ve ihracat odakl\u0131 varl\u0131klarda uzun; yurt i\u00e7i t\u00fcketime ba\u011fl\u0131 varl\u0131klarda k\u0131sa pozisyon fikrini destekliyor.\n\nSanayideki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n ye\u015fil teknoloji ihracat\u0131nda beklenen %21,8\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7ramadan geldi\u011fi, bunun da emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 (bak\u0131r gibi ham madde fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tuttu\u011fu belirtiliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, LME\u2019de (London Metal Exchange \u2013 Londra Metal Borsas\u0131) \u00fc\u00e7 ay vadeli bak\u0131r kontratlar\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi; belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda d\u00fczenli al\u0131mlar sayesinde ton ba\u015f\u0131na 9.000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, sanayi metalleri i\u00e7in \u201ccall opsiyonlar\u0131\u201dn\u0131 (al\u0131m opsiyonu; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ve \u00c7in\u2019in yeni enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019leri (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon; bir endeksi\/sepetteki varl\u0131klar\u0131 takip eden fon) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; ancak 2025 boyunca Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerle s\u00fcren ticaret gerilimleri izleniyor.\n\n<h3>\u0130ki Vitesli \u00c7in\u2019e G\u00f6re Konumlanma<\/h3>\n\u00d6te yandan, zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc t\u00fcketici odakl\u0131 \u015firketlerde bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine i\u015faret ediyor. M\u00fctevaz\u0131 perakende sat\u0131\u015f tahmini, son t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni verileriyle uyumlu; endeksin bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir n\u00f6tr seviye olan 100 puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Bu ortam, t\u00fcketici iste\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 sekt\u00f6r endekslerinde \u201cput opsiyonu\u201d (sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019in gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne (konut ve ticari emlak) duyarl\u0131 \u015firketlere kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli durmay\u0131 destekliyor.\n\nSabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,5 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesi, 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir dengelenmeye i\u015faret ediyor. Ancak altyap\u0131 harcamalar\u0131ndan belirgin bir katk\u0131n\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyrekten \u00f6nce gelmesi beklenmiyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc rekor devlet tahvili ihrac\u0131yla toplanan fonlar yeni devreye al\u0131n\u0131yor. Bu gecikmeli etki, 2015 sonras\u0131 te\u015fviklerin (ekonomi canland\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131) ge\u00e7 yans\u0131mas\u0131na benzer bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu nedenle in\u015faat ve malzeme hisselerinde uzun pozisyon almak erken olabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c7in\u2019de iki vites sinyali: Sanayi \u00fcretimi %5,5 ve ye\u015fil teknoloji ihracat\u0131 %21,8 artarken, perakende sat\u0131\u015f %3,0\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131m %1,5; altyap\u0131 deste\u011fi gecikmeli. Piyasada long sanayi, short t\u00fcketim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30335","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30335"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30335\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}