{"id":30332,"date":"2026-03-14T00:07:05","date_gmt":"2026-03-14T00:07:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/chris-turner-artan-volatilite-dusuk-enflasyon-baskisi-ve-degerli-metallerde-ivme-kaybi-nedeniyle-randdaki-uzun-pozisyonlarin-cozuldugunu-soyluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-14T00:07:05","modified_gmt":"2026-03-14T00:07:05","slug":"chris-turner-artan-volatilite-dusuk-enflasyon-baskisi-ve-degerli-metallerde-ivme-kaybi-nedeniyle-randdaki-uzun-pozisyonlarin-cozuldugunu-soyluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/chris-turner-artan-volatilite-dusuk-enflasyon-baskisi-ve-degerli-metallerde-ivme-kaybi-nedeniyle-randdaki-uzun-pozisyonlarin-cozuldugunu-soyluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Chris Turner, artan volatilite, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 ve de\u011ferli metallerde ivme kayb\u0131 nedeniyle Rand\u2019daki uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"2025\u2019in sonu ve 2026\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda biriken randda \u201cuzun\u201d (rand\u0131n de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131nan) pozisyonlar \u015fimdi azalt\u0131l\u0131yor. Daha \u00f6nce rand\u0131 destekleyen unsurlar; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck yeni bir enflasyon hedefine ge\u00e7i\u015fi ve yerel para cinsi tahvil piyasas\u0131na (rand cinsi devlet tahvilleri) para giri\u015fleriydi.\n\nMart itibar\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon zemini bozuluyor ve piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n sert dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131yor. Bu durum \u201ccarry trade\u201dlerde (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek faizli para biriminde getiri arama i\u015flemi) kald\u0131ra\u00e7 azalt\u0131m\u0131na (bor\u00e7la b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fclen pozisyonlar\u0131n k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fclmesi) yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Alt\u0131n ve platin de enflasyon \u015fokundan art\u0131k ek destek alm\u0131yor.\n\nUSD\/ZAR i\u00e7in 17,00\u201317,25 band\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli risk aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 daha da y\u00fckselir ve k\u00fcresel hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 yeniden d\u00fc\u015ferse, gelecek hafta 17,75\u2019e hareket ihtimali de not ediliyor.\n\n2025\u2019in sonu ve bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz G\u00fcney Afrika rand\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olumlu hava net bi\u00e7imde tersine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon ve de\u011ferli metallerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f hik\u00e2yesiyle olu\u015fturulan rand \u201cuzun\u201d pozisyonlar \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Artan oynakl\u0131k, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bu carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131ndaki riskini azaltmaya zorluyor.\n\nBu de\u011fi\u015fim verilerle de destekleniyor: G\u00fcney Afrika\u2019n\u0131n \u015fubat enflasyonu %5,8 ile ocaktaki %5,1\u2019den belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi. Ayn\u0131 zamanda VIX endeksi (k\u00fcresel piyasalarda korku\/strese i\u015faret eden oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) mart ba\u015f\u0131nda y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 10\u2019lu seviyelerden 25\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu ortam, rand gibi daha riskli geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimlerini elde tutmay\u0131 daha az cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nEmtia (ham madde) kaynakl\u0131 destek de zay\u0131flad\u0131. Alt\u0131n, ge\u00e7en ay ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.450 dolar civar\u0131nda zirve yapt\u0131ktan sonra kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f sa\u011flayamad\u0131 ve 2.400 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. \u00d6te yandan Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclke i\u00e7in yeni bir olumsuz unsur olu\u015fturuyor.\n\nBu tabloda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, USD\/ZAR \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (kur belirli bir seviyenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa kazand\u0131ran al\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) alarak 17,00\/17,25 b\u00f6lgesine olas\u0131 harekete pozisyon almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k bu opsiyonlar\u0131 (prime\/bedeline) daha pahal\u0131 hale getiriyor; ancak bu, kurda sert de\u011fer kayb\u0131 riskinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da yans\u0131t\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 son %5\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse, 17,75 \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131\u201d (opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi hedef kur seviyesi) opsiyonlar daha y\u00fcksek getiri sa\u011flayabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>R\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc: Rand \u201cuzun\u201dlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Enflasyon %5,8\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131, VIX 25\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131; carry trade\u2019ler k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor. USD\/ZAR 17,00\u201317,25 riskte, stresle 17,75 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30332","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30332"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30332\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30332"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30332"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30332"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}