{"id":30327,"date":"2026-03-14T00:03:12","date_gmt":"2026-03-14T00:03:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/britanyanin-niesrnin-uc-aylik-gsyh-tahmini-subatta-03te-sabit-kaldi-degisim-gostermedi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-14T00:03:12","modified_gmt":"2026-03-14T00:03:12","slug":"britanyanin-niesrnin-uc-aylik-gsyh-tahmini-subatta-03te-sabit-kaldi-degisim-gostermedi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/britanyanin-niesrnin-uc-aylik-gsyh-tahmini-subatta-03te-sabit-kaldi-degisim-gostermedi\/","title":{"rendered":"Britanya\u2019n\u0131n NIESR\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k GSYH tahmini \u015eubat\u2019ta %0,3\u2019te sabit kald\u0131, de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi"},"content":{"rendered":"Ulusal Ekonomik ve Sosyal Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (NIESR), Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la\u2019n\u0131n (GSYH: \u00fclkenin toplam \u00fcretimi) \u015eubat\u2019a kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 ayda %0,3 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti.\n\nBu %0,3\u2019l\u00fck oran, bir \u00f6nceki \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fmedi.\n\n

\u0130ngiltere\u2019de B\u00fcy\u00fcme H\u0131z Kazanm\u0131yor<\/h3>\n\u0130ngiltere\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini \u015eubat\u2019ta zay\u0131f %0,3 seviyesinde de\u011fi\u015fmeden kald\u0131. Bu, ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ancak belirgin bir h\u0131z kazanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, \u00e7ok yak\u0131n vadede piyasada net bir y\u00f6n olu\u015fmayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nBu yatay b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyonun %2,2\u2019ye gerilemesiyle (enflasyon: fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) de destekleniyor; bu da \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) \u00fczerindeki ad\u0131m atma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Ancak ge\u00e7en hafta GfK T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni endeksi -19\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu da hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ili\u015fkin k\u00f6t\u00fcmser kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu veri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n (faiz: bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir s\u00fcre de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalma ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.\n\nBu tabloyla birlikte FTSE 100 gibi endekslerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (realised volatility: ge\u00e7mi\u015f fiyat hareketlerine g\u00f6re \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen dalgalanma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert fiyat hareketlerini daha az olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (volatility selling: piyasan\u0131n yatay kalaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla opsiyon primi toplama) daha cazip olabilir. \u00d6rnek olarak, kapal\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu (covered call: eldeki hisse\/pozisyon \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p prim toplama) veya k\u0131sa strangle (short strangle: ayn\u0131 anda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p prim toplama; risk y\u00fcksektir) ile piyasa yatay seyrederken prim (premium: opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplanabilir. FTSE 100 i\u00e7in \u201cVIX\u201d benzeri oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi (VIX: piyasan\u0131n beklenen dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tan endeks) son d\u00f6nemde 13,5 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede geziniyor; bu seviye tarihsel olarak bant i\u00e7inde hareket eden piyasalarla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor.\n\n\u0130ngiltere\u2019nin performans\u0131, ABD\u2019ye k\u0131yasla belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131f. ABD\u2019de ge\u00e7en haftaki tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi (non-farm payrolls: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde yarat\u0131lan yeni i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131) beklentileri a\u015farak 215 bin yeni istihdam g\u00f6sterdi. Bu ekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fma, sterlin \u00fczerinde dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle GBP\/USD paritesinde (parite: iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki kur) 1,2200 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak (hedge: riskten korunma) veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\n2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki benzer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6nemine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, savunmac\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler (defensive sectors: ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fcden daha az etkilenen, daha istikrarl\u0131 talebi olan sekt\u00f6rler) d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6rlere (cyclical: b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve durgunluktan daha \u00e7ok etkilenen sekt\u00f6rler) g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bu tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc, \u015fu anda bir \u201cpair trade\u201di (e\u015fle\u015fmi\u015f i\u015flem: bir varl\u0131kta uzun, di\u011ferinde k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak g\u00f6reli performansa oynama) daha etkili k\u0131labilir. Kamu hizmetleri ve temel t\u00fcketim ETF\u2019lerinde (ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) al\u0131rken, konut \u00fcreticileri gibi ekonomiye daha duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131 bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.\n\n

Savunmac\u0131 Sekt\u00f6rler \u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131kabilir<\/h3>\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz yok: NIESR\u2019ye g\u00f6re \u0130ngiltere GSYH\u2019si \u015eubat\u2019a kadar 3 ayda %0,3\u2019te kald\u0131. Enflasyon 2,2\u2019ye inse de g\u00fcven zay\u0131f; BoE bekle-g\u00f6r. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite, FTSE\u2019de opsiyon primi; GBP\/USD\u2019da 1,22 riski. Savunmac\u0131lar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30327","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30327","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30327"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30327\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30327"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30327"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30327"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}