{"id":30325,"date":"2026-03-14T00:01:34","date_gmt":"2026-03-14T00:01:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/riskten-kacis-egilimi-abd-dolarini-destekledi-gbp-usdyi-dort-seans-ust-uste-dusurerek-aralik-ayinin-en-dusuk-seviyelerine-cekti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-14T00:01:34","modified_gmt":"2026-03-14T00:01:34","slug":"riskten-kacis-egilimi-abd-dolarini-destekledi-gbp-usdyi-dort-seans-ust-uste-dusurerek-aralik-ayinin-en-dusuk-seviyelerine-cekti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/riskten-kacis-egilimi-abd-dolarini-destekledi-gbp-usdyi-dort-seans-ust-uste-dusurerek-aralik-ayinin-en-dusuk-seviyelerine-cekti\/","title":{"rendered":"Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi, GBP\/USD\u2019yi d\u00f6rt seans \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek Aral\u0131k ay\u0131n\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine \u00e7ekti"},"content":{"rendered":"GBP\/USD 1,3240 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; art arda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde gerileyerek 3 Aral\u0131k 2025\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Hareketin arkas\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131 ve riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli limanlara y\u00f6nelmesi) vard\u0131.\n\n\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itti; bu da gelecek haftaki politika toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) risklerini art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz karar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Fed ayr\u0131ca g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f Dot Plot\u2019u (Fed \u00fcyelerinin gelecekteki faiz beklentilerini g\u00f6steren nokta grafi\u011fi) yay\u0131mlayacak.\n\n

Petrol \u015eoku Ve \u0130ngiltere B\u00fcy\u00fcmesi<\/h3>\nBaz\u0131 ekonomistlere g\u00f6re varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 100 dolara \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, yak\u0131t maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f nedeniyle \u0130ngiltere T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ni (T\u00dcFE) yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,6 puan y\u00fckseltebilir. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de ayl\u0131k GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) ocakta ayl\u0131k bazda %0 oldu; aral\u0131kta %0,1\u2019di.\n\nABD\u2019de JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 (i\u015fverenlerin doldurmak istedi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonlar) ocakta 6,946 milyona y\u00fckseldi; aral\u0131k i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nce 6,55 milyon a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (core PCE; dalgal\u0131 g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) ocakta %3,1 oldu; aral\u0131kta %3,0\u2019t\u0131.\n\n4 saatlik grafikte GBP\/USD 1,3241 seviyesindeydi ve 20 ile 100 d\u00f6nemlik SMA\u2019lar\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama; fiyat\u0131n belirli bir d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131) alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Diren\u00e7 (yukar\u0131 hareketi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye) 1,3289 ve 1,3346\u2019da; destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yava\u015flatan seviye) 1,3230\u2019da izlenirken RSI (G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 30 civar\u0131nda seyretti.\n\nCable (GBP\/USD paritesi) \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k dip seviyeye inerken, temelde belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 veri ve politika fark\u0131) y\u00f6n verdi\u011fi net bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de zay\u0131f %0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, ABD\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015fmeyen (inat\u00e7\u0131) enflasyonla keskin bi\u00e7imde ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6zellikle ufukta \u00f6nemli merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 varken GBP\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi olas\u0131.\n\n

Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 \u0130\u015flem Fikri<\/h3>\nS\u00fcren \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, BoE\u2019nin zaten durgun (b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyen) ekonomiye zarar vermeden kolayca m\u00fccadele edemeyece\u011fi bir enflasyon sorunu yarat\u0131yor. Bu tablo, 2022\u2019deki enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor: \u0130ngiliz t\u00fcketicisi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f, BoE\u2019nin politika se\u00e7enekleri daralm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu dinamik ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed\u2019in \u015fahin (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli) kalmak i\u00e7in daha fazla alan\u0131 var.\n\nBoE\u2019den g\u00fcvercin bir \u201cpas ge\u00e7me\u201d (faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden daha yumu\u015fak mesaj verme) beklentisiyle, GBP\/USD put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 (kur d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) en etkili strateji olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 1,3200 psikolojik seviyesinin (piyasada \u00f6zellikle takip edilen yuvarlak seviye) alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 hedeflemek ve vade olarak mart sonunu se\u00e7mek, gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131ya olas\u0131 olumsuz tepkiyi yakalamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, riski ba\u015ftan belirli bir \u00e7er\u00e7evede tutarak sterlindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.\n\nSon piyasa verileri de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor: GBP\/USD i\u00e7in 1 ayl\u0131k risk reversal (ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu talebi fark\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc) 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yana en belirgin \u015fekilde put taraf\u0131na kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu, kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (downside protection) talebinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.\n\nParitenin ABD taraf\u0131nda ise veriler dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc desteklemeye devam ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in yeni Dot Plot\u2019ta yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimine i\u015faret etmesi i\u00e7in fazla gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. Fed ile BoE aras\u0131ndaki bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 temel itici g\u00fc\u00e7 konumunda.\n\nMerkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 sonras\u0131 sert bir hareket bekleyip y\u00f6n konusunda emin olmayanlar i\u00e7in uzun volatilite stratejisi (oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazanmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131m) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Strangle almak (paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, yani mevcut fiyattan uzak bir sat\u0131m ve bir al\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte sat\u0131n almak) parite iki y\u00f6nden birinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket ederse kazand\u0131r\u0131r. Gelecek haftaki geli\u015fmelerin etkisi y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fundan sert bir hareket ihtimali art\u0131yor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sterlin alarma ge\u00e7ti: GBP\/USD 1,3240\u2019te \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k dipte. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 petrol \u015foku ve Fed-BoE politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; 1,3200 alt\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131 ve volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30325","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30325","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30325"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30325\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30325"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30325"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30325"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}