{"id":30316,"date":"2026-03-13T20:03:33","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T20:03:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/standard-chartered-duzensiz-buyume-ve-petrol-fiyatlari-esliginde-usd-jpy-yukselirken-japonya-merkez-bankasinin-faizi-temkinli-sekilde-075te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T20:03:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T20:03:33","slug":"standard-chartered-duzensiz-buyume-ve-petrol-fiyatlari-esliginde-usd-jpy-yukselirken-japonya-merkez-bankasinin-faizi-temkinli-sekilde-075te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/standard-chartered-duzensiz-buyume-ve-petrol-fiyatlari-esliginde-usd-jpy-yukselirken-japonya-merkez-bankasinin-faizi-temkinli-sekilde-075te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Standard Chartered, d\u00fczensiz b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 e\u015fli\u011finde USD\/JPY y\u00fckselirken Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi temkinli \u015fekilde %0,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Standard Chartered analistleri, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) 19 Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %0,75\u2019te de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Temkinli duru\u015f, Japonya\u2019da dengesiz b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131.\n\nAnalistlere g\u00f6re karar al\u0131c\u0131lar, faizleri daha da \u201cnormalle\u015ftirmeden\u201d (ola\u011fan seviyelere yakla\u015ft\u0131rmadan) \u00f6nce, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketime (hane harcamalar\u0131na) somut bi\u00e7imde yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek istiyor. Baz senaryolar\u0131nda (ana beklentide) \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte, muhtemelen temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar.\n\n<h3>Policy Outlook And Key Drivers<\/h3>\nBoJ i\u00e7in nihai faiz tahminleri %1 seviyesinde. Faizlerin bu seviyenin de \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kma riski oldu\u011funu not ediyorlar.\n\nUSD\/JPY paritesinde (ABD dolar\u0131\/Japon yeni kurunda) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim oldu\u011funu, 162 seviyesinin yeniden test edilebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. Parite en son 162\u2019ye, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Temmuz 2024\u2019teki d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi (kur hareketine do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131mla m\u00fcdahale) \u00f6ncesinde ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\n\nAyr\u0131ca Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son s\u00f6zl\u00fc m\u00fcdahalesinin (kurla ilgili y\u00f6nlendirme\/uyar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n) \u00f6l\u00e7ek ve etki a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekliyorlar. Mart\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda USD\/JPY\u2019de genelde g\u00f6r\u00fclen olumlu mevsimselli\u011fe de i\u015faret ediyorlar; bunun nedeni \u201cwindow-dressing\u201d ak\u0131mlar\u0131 (bilan\u00e7o d\u00f6nemlerinde \u015firket ve kurumlar\u0131n d\u00f6nem sonu i\u015flemleriyle pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha iyi g\u00f6sterme ama\u00e7l\u0131 hareketleri).\n\nUSD\/JPY\u2019de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yukar\u0131 hareketin daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediliyor. 2025 \u201cShunto\u201d \u00fccret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinden (Japonya\u2019daki bahar d\u00f6nemi toplu \u00fccret pazarl\u0131klar\u0131) ilk sonu\u00e7lar ortalama \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n %4,5 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret etse de, karar al\u0131c\u0131lar t\u00fcketim verilerinde net kan\u0131t bekleyecek. Bu gecikme, yende zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa alan a\u00e7\u0131yor; bu nedenle t\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (opsiyon\/vadeli gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar) olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanmak i\u00e7in nisan vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.\n\n<h3>Trading Implications For Usd Jpy<\/h3>\nUSD\/JPY\u2019nin 162 seviyesini yeniden test edebilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu seviye \u00f6nemli \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ge\u00e7en y\u0131l temmuzda Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesini tetikleyen noktayd\u0131. Olas\u0131 ani politika de\u011fi\u015fimi veya m\u00fcdahale riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa call spread (ayn\u0131 vadede daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu satma; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr, kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar) daha temkinli bir strateji olabilir. Ancak bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n son s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar\u0131, 2024 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen trilyonlarca yen b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki m\u00fcdahalelere k\u0131yasla belirgin bi\u00e7imde daha yumu\u015fak kald\u0131.\n\nYetkililerin bu sessiz tutumu, \u015fu a\u015famada geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 durmak istemediklerine i\u015faret edebilir. Bu da paritede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrin s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik beklentiyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. \u00d6zellikle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d mesaj\u0131 (faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fi y\u00f6nlendirmesi) varken, \u015fimdilik daha zay\u0131f yene tolerans g\u00f6sterdikleri anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nSon olarak USD\/JPY a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan mevsimsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00f6neme giriliyor. Mart\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda, Japon \u015firketlerinin mali y\u0131l sonuna (fiscal year-end: mali y\u0131l kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131) ba\u011fl\u0131 nakit ve kur i\u015flemleri nedeniyle genelde dolar al\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Bu tarihsel e\u011filim, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada paritede yukar\u0131 hareketi destekleyen ek bir unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dikkat: BoJ martta faizi %0,75\u2019te tutabilir! Standard Chartered, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcketime yans\u0131madan ad\u0131m beklemiyor; temmuzda art\u0131\u015f, nihai %1 ihtimali. USD\/JPY 162\u2019yi test edebilir; mevsimsellik ve zay\u0131f m\u00fcdahale yeni bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30316","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30316\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}