{"id":30315,"date":"2026-03-13T20:02:49","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T20:02:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobank-stratejistleri-hurmuzdeki-aksama-kuresel-petrol-ve-dogalgaz-fiyatlarini-yukseltirken-kisa-vadeli-eur-usd-tahminlerini-asagi-yonlu-revize-etti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T20:02:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T20:02:49","slug":"rabobank-stratejistleri-hurmuzdeki-aksama-kuresel-petrol-ve-dogalgaz-fiyatlarini-yukseltirken-kisa-vadeli-eur-usd-tahminlerini-asagi-yonlu-revize-etti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobank-stratejistleri-hurmuzdeki-aksama-kuresel-petrol-ve-dogalgaz-fiyatlarini-yukseltirken-kisa-vadeli-eur-usd-tahminlerini-asagi-yonlu-revize-etti\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank stratejistleri, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019deki aksama k\u00fcresel petrol ve do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltirken k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD tahminlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti"},"content":{"rendered":"Rabobank, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ni Umman Denizi\u2019ne ba\u011flayan, k\u00fcresel petrol ve LNG\u2014s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz\u2014ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7it) aksamalar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi ve petrol ile do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f nedeniyle k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD (euro\/dolar) tahminlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Banka, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1\u20133 ayda euronun ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.\n\nBanka, 1 ayl\u0131k EUR\/USD tahminini 1,16\u2019dan 1,14\u2019e indirdi. 3 ayl\u0131k tahminini ise 1,16\u2019dan 1,15\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.\n\n

Near Term Forecast Changes<\/h3>\nRabobank, orta vadeli EUR\/USD tahminlerini \u015fimdilik de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi; ancak enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve jeopolitik (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 siyasi gerilim ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski) geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bu tahminlerin izlemede oldu\u011funu belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca \u00f6nceki EUR\/USD tahminlerinin, piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn (piyasadaki ortalama beklenti) zaten alt\u0131nda ve piyasa tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt band\u0131na yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti.\n\nRapora g\u00f6re euro, para birimleri performans s\u0131ralamas\u0131n\u0131n alt taraf\u0131nda. Banka bunu, piyasan\u0131n aylard\u0131r \u201cuzun EUR pozisyonu\u201d (euroda y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle euro al\u0131p dolar satma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131na ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin \u201cticaret hadlerinin\u201d (ihracat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ithalat fiyatlar\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u00fcc\u00fc) bozulmas\u0131na ba\u011flad\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc b\u00f6lge net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131.\n\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki uzun s\u00fcren aksama nedeniyle yak\u0131n vadeli EUR\/USD tahminlerimizi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ektik. Kurun bir ayda 1,14 ve \u00fc\u00e7 ayda 1,15 seviyesinde olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; \u00f6nceki hedefimiz 1,16 idi. Bu revizyon, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisi \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli bir \u201cgizli vergi\u201d etkisi (hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131) olu\u015fturmas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor.\n\n

Potential Trading Strategies<\/h3>\nEnerji maliyetlerindeki sert art\u0131\u015f tabloyu a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecek bir tarihte teslim edilmek \u00fczere bug\u00fcnden fiyat\u0131 belirlenen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu ay varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 2022 yaz\u0131ndan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu durum Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini (ihracat-ithalat fark\u0131) do\u011frudan etkiledi; son veriler, enerji ithalat maliyetindeki s\u0131\u00e7rama nedeniyle a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ge\u00e7en ay belirgin bi\u00e7imde b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Net enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan ABD ise bu \u015foka g\u00f6rece daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131; bu da dolar\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal enstr\u00fcman) i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda euronun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. 1,14 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi seviye) EUR\/USD \u201cput opsiyonu\u201d (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinde tercih edilir) almak, beklenen gerilemeden faydalanman\u0131n net bir yolu olabilir. \u201cOut-of-the-money\u201d (mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket gerektiren) \u201ccall opsiyonu\u201d (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131; y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisinde) satmak da, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden yararlanabilecek bir ba\u015fka stratejidir.\n\nSon aylarda biriken uzun euro pozisyonlar\u0131ndan h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu \u201ckalabal\u0131k i\u015flem\u201d (\u00e7ok say\u0131da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde pozisyon almas\u0131) \u015fimdi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da \u201cstop-loss\u201d (zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in \u00f6nceden belirlenen seviyede otomatik sat\u0131\u015f\/al\u0131m emri) emirlerinin devreye girmesiyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. Benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 2022\u2019de, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgalinin ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fanan enerji kriziyle EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na (parite alt\u0131: 1 euro = 1 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131) gerilemesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\n\nBu enerji \u015foku, merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u201cpolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d (faiz ve para politikas\u0131 duru\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) yarat\u0131yor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ekonomiyi yava\u015flat\u0131rken \u201c\u015fahin duru\u015fu\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya yatk\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 politika) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte zorlanabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) hareket alan\u0131 daha geni\u015f; bu da \u201cgetiri arayan\u201d (faiz\/kazan\u00e7 i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek getiri pe\u015finde ko\u015fan) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in dolar\u0131 daha \u00e7ekici k\u0131l\u0131yor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksama ve y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131 euroyu zorluyor: Rabobank, k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD hedefini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. 1 ay 1,14; 3 ay 1,15. Uzun euro pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcyor. ABD avantajl\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30315","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30315"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30315\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30315"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30315"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30315"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}