{"id":30314,"date":"2026-03-13T20:02:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T20:02:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-enerjiyle-baglantili-risklerin-bu-ay-artmasiyla-kanada-merkez-bankasinin-faizi-225te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T20:02:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T20:02:08","slug":"td-securities-enerjiyle-baglantili-risklerin-bu-ay-artmasiyla-kanada-merkez-bankasinin-faizi-225te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-enerjiyle-baglantili-risklerin-bu-ay-artmasiyla-kanada-merkez-bankasinin-faizi-225te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities, enerjiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 risklerin bu ay artmas\u0131yla Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"TD Securities, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) mart ay\u0131nda politika faizini %2,25\u2019te sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Kurum, ocak ay\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmden bu yana Kanada\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler d\u0131\u015far\u0131da tutularak fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmesi) yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tan temkinli bir metin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nG\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon taraf\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7eriyor. Bu enerji fiyat\u0131 hareketleri, man\u015fet enflasyonu (t\u00fcm kalemleri i\u00e7eren genel enflasyon) ve yurt i\u00e7i b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi etkileyebilir.\n\n

Politika Faizi G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Temel Etkenler<\/h3>\nBankan\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirmesinin (ileri d\u00f6n\u00fck mesajlar\u0131n) gelecekteki faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin se\u00e7enekleri a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rakmas\u0131 bekleniyor. BoC\u2019nin, \u201cyap\u0131sal uyum\u201d (ekonomide kal\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimlere uyum s\u00fcreci) d\u00f6neminde mevcut faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdilik uygun oldu\u011funu yineleyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.\n\nAyr\u0131ca BoC\u2019nin, politika faizindeki (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli faiz oran\u0131) bir sonraki de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fin zaman\u0131n\u0131 veya y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6ng\u00f6rmenin zor oldu\u011funu tekrar vurgulamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Notta, k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kald\u0131k\u00e7a faiz indiriminin savunulmas\u0131n\u0131n zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, ancak tamamen devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.\n\n9 Mart\u2019ta WTI ham petrol\u00fcnde (ABD referans petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 38 dolarl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanmas\u0131, ko\u015fullar\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fine \u00f6rnek olarak g\u00f6steriliyor.\n\n

Piyasa Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u0130\u015flem Etkileri<\/h3>\n2025 sonuna d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131) zay\u0131f kalarak %0,5\u2019e indi\u011fi, 2026 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki verilerin de benzer \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fcz seyre i\u015faret etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6stergeleri de so\u011fudu; son veride CPI-trim %2,8\u2019e gerileyerek BoC\u2019nin hedefi olan %2\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131. Ancak WTI\u2019\u0131n varil fiyat\u0131 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in, bu yurt i\u00e7i sinyaller k\u00fcresel fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde kal\u0131yor.\n\nBu nedenle BoC\u2019nin mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok temkinli ve net taahh\u00fct i\u00e7ermeyen (belirli bir ad\u0131m s\u00f6z\u00fc vermeyen) tonda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Banka muhtemelen mevcut faizin \u015fimdilik uygun oldu\u011funu ve bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez oldu\u011funu tekrarlar. Bu y\u00fcksek belirsizlik, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda faizlerin y\u00f6n\u00fcne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir pozisyon almay\u0131 daha riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\n\u0130ran\u2019daki durum, BoC\u2019nin tahminleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tek tarafl\u0131 bir risk yarat\u0131yor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa, man\u015fet enflasyonu yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k. Enflasyondaki bu yukar\u0131 bask\u0131, s\u00fcregelen ticaret sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 dengeleyebilir.\n\nBu tablo alt\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n belirgin oynakl\u0131\u011fa (fiyatlar\u0131n sert dalgalanmas\u0131) haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. 9 Mart\u2019ta WTI\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 38 dolarl\u0131k sert fiyat hareketi, piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da belirli bir y\u00f6n yerine b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyen opsiyon stratejilerinin (\u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle kurulan i\u015flemler) daha uygun olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nY\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ortam\u0131nda faiz indirimi daha zor bir se\u00e7enek, ancak tamamen masadan kalkm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da gerilimin azalmas\u0131na dair bir i\u015faret, piyasada faiz indirimi beklentilerinin h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Benzer bir durum 2022\u2019de, Ukrayna\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ilk a\u015famalar\u0131nda piyasalar\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131 patikalar\u0131n\u0131 (beklenen faiz oran\u0131 gidi\u015fat\u0131) h\u0131zla yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesiyle g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\n

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Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrol \u015foku BoC\u2019yi k\u00f6\u015feye mi s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor? TD Securities, martta faizin %2,25\u2019te kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve so\u011fuyan \u00e7ekirde\u011fe ra\u011fmen \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 petrol art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla s\u00f6ylemin temkinli kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30314"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30314\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}