{"id":30313,"date":"2026-03-13T20:01:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T20:01:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ocak-ayina-iliskin-abd-jolts-acik-is-sayisi-beklentileri-asti-67-milyon-beklentiye-karsilik-6946-milyon-olarak-gerceklesti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T20:01:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T20:01:23","slug":"ocak-ayina-iliskin-abd-jolts-acik-is-sayisi-beklentileri-asti-67-milyon-beklentiye-karsilik-6946-milyon-olarak-gerceklesti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ocak-ayina-iliskin-abd-jolts-acik-is-sayisi-beklentileri-asti-67-milyon-beklentiye-karsilik-6946-milyon-olarak-gerceklesti\/","title":{"rendered":"Ocak ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin ABD JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131; 6,7 milyon beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 6,946 milyon olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti."},"content":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019de JOLTS anketiyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 ocakta beklentilerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Piyasa beklentisi 6,7 milyondu.\n\nGer\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri 6,946 milyon oldu. Bu, beklentinin 0,246 milyon \u00fczerinde.\n\n<h3>\u0130\u015f G\u00fcc\u00fc Piyasas\u0131 H\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00c7ok G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc<\/h3>\nOcak ay\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f verisi beklentiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelerek i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok canl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, ekonomide g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel oldu\u011funu ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u015fimdilik beklemede kalmas\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi (politika faizinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi) sinyali beklememek gerekir.\n\nBu rapor ayr\u0131ca \u00f6nemli; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015fubat T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE, hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetlerin fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisi de enflasyonun 3,1 ile \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. \u201cYap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon\u201d, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn beklenenden yava\u015f olmas\u0131 ve fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi anlam\u0131na gelir; bu seviye Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 (\u00fccretler ve istihdam \u00fczerinden) talebi desteklerken enflasyonun da diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede i\u015finin bitmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d (faizlerin beklenenden uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) ortam\u0131n\u0131n en az\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda s\u00fcrmesini destekliyor.\n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Fed\u2019den \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fun (enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli politika) devam etmesine g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Bunun i\u00e7in faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri (ilerideki bir tarihte faizin\/faiz oran\u0131na duyarl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin fiyat\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcnden belirlenmesi i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlara (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) bak\u0131yoruz. Ama\u00e7, yaz\u0131n faiz indirimi ihtimalinin fiyatlardan silinmesi gerekirse bundan yararlanmak. SOFR vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede satmay\u0131 cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. SOFR, ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma faizini yans\u0131tan referans faiz oran\u0131d\u0131r; SOFR vadeli kontratlar\u0131 da piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki faiz beklentisini fiyatlar.\n\nKal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131, 2025 sonuna do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7lenen hisse piyasas\u0131 momentumunu (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat e\u011filimini) kesebilir. Bu nedenle S&#038;P 500 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde koruyucu put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6ren sat\u0131m opsiyonu) almak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. VIX\u2019in (S&#038;P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\/volatiliteyi \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerden y\u00fckselmesi de olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu nedenle VIX call opsiyonlar\u0131 (VIX y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan al\u0131m opsiyonu) oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.\n\n<h3>2023 Deneyiminden Dersler<\/h3>\n2023\u2019te de benzer bir durum ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen veriler Fed\u2019in politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi (faiz indirimine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f) beklentilerini s\u00fcrekli \u00f6telemi\u015fti. O d\u00f6nemde erken faiz indirimi bekleyen piyasalar zarar g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn de ayn\u0131 dersi dikkate alarak, faizlerin riskli varl\u0131klar (hisse gibi fiyat\u0131 daha \u00e7ok dalgalanan varl\u0131klar) \u00fczerinde beklenenden uzun s\u00fcre bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S\u00fcrpriz JOLTS: ABD\u2019de ocak a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 6,946 milyonla 6,7 milyon beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam, yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyonla birlikte Fed\u2019in indirimi ertelemesini destekliyor; \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30313","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30313","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30313"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30313\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30313"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30313"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}