{"id":30304,"date":"2026-03-13T17:09:20","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T17:09:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/nufus-sayim-burosu-abdde-ocak-ayi-dayanikli-mal-siparislerinin-buyuk-olcude-yatay-seyrettigini-ve-3212-milyar-dolara-geriledigini-bildirdi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T17:09:20","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T17:09:20","slug":"nufus-sayim-burosu-abdde-ocak-ayi-dayanikli-mal-siparislerinin-buyuk-olcude-yatay-seyrettigini-ve-3212-milyar-dolara-geriledigini-bildirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/nufus-sayim-burosu-abdde-ocak-ayi-dayanikli-mal-siparislerinin-buyuk-olcude-yatay-seyrettigini-ve-3212-milyar-dolara-geriledigini-bildirdi\/","title":{"rendered":"N\u00fcfus Say\u0131m B\u00fcrosu, ABD\u2019de ocak ay\u0131 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015flerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti\u011fini ve 321,2 milyar dolara geriledi\u011fini bildirdi"},"content":{"rendered":"Ocak ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019de dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri 0,1 milyar dolar azalarak 321,2 milyar dolara geriledi. B\u00f6ylece son d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f oldu. Aral\u0131k verisi %0,9 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131; \u00f6nceki tahmin olan -%1,4\u2019ten yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi.\n\nVeri, %1,2 art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ula\u015ft\u0131rma hari\u00e7 sipari\u015fler %0,4, savunma hari\u00e7 sipari\u015fler %0,5 artt\u0131.\n\n

Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mallarda Detaylar<\/h3>\nUla\u015ft\u0131rma ekipmanlar\u0131 1,0 milyar dolar (yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,9) d\u00fc\u015ferek 113,3 milyar dolara indi ve son d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnde geriledi. Genel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte ana etken bu kalem oldu.\n\nRapor sonras\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY, dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,3 art\u0131\u015fla 100,05 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi.\n\nOcak verisinin yatay ve zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, ekonomik ivmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. D\u00f6rt ayda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u015firketlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda (sermaye harcamas\u0131: makine\/te\u00e7hizat gibi uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131mlar) daha temkinli davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Beklentiye g\u00f6re belirgin sapma da bu ihtiyatl\u0131 duru\u015fu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.\n\nZay\u0131f imalat verisine ra\u011fmen dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 ve DXY\u2019nin 100\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde tutunmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bu durum, piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz indirimlerinde a\u011f\u0131r davranaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6zellikle \u015eubat 2026 enflasyon verilerinde \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; \u201c\u00e7ekirdek\u201d olan\u0131 g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemleri hari\u00e7 tutar) %2,8 ile y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 bu alg\u0131y\u0131 destekliyor. Piyasa, di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131na k\u0131yasla \u201cfaizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131\u201d senaryosunu fiyatl\u0131yor.\n\n

Pozisyonlanma ve Riskler<\/h3>\nBu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, piyasada Fed\u2019in ilk faiz indirimine ili\u015fkin beklentiler yeniden ayarlan\u0131rken SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri (SOFR: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 fonlama faizi; bu faiz \u00fczerine kurulu faiz vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar\u0131 izliyoruz. Ekonomide ilave zay\u0131flama sinyalleri, fiyatlaman\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7abilir; bu da y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizlere oynayan opsiyonlar\u0131n de\u011ferini art\u0131rabilir. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckselebilir; bu da fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejileri, \u00f6rne\u011fin VIX endeksi \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu (VIX: piyasadaki beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi; al\u0131m opsiyonu \u201ccall\u201d fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden fayda sa\u011flar) almay\u0131, bir sonraki FOMC (Fed\u2019in faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan komite toplant\u0131s\u0131) \u00f6ncesinde daha cazip hale getirebilir.\n\nVerinin \u00fcreticileri do\u011frudan etkilemesi nedeniyle sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde (borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta\/koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. 2015\u2019teki yava\u015flamaya bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, imalat\u0131n geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ancak hizmetler taraf\u0131n\u0131n daha diren\u00e7li oldu\u011fu benzer bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu nedenle, ikili i\u015flem yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla (paired trade: bir varl\u0131kta daha temkinliyken di\u011ferinde dengeleyici pozisyon almak) sanayi hisselerinde daha ihtiyatl\u0131 kal\u0131p, geni\u015f endeks S&P 500\u2019de (ABD\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerini izleyen borsa endeksi) daha n\u00f6tr durmak daha temkinli bir tercih olabilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz zay\u0131fl\u0131k: ABD\u2019de Ocak dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri 321,2 milyar dolara geriledi, beklenti alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ula\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u00fcr\u00fckledi. Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; DXY 100 \u00fcst\u00fc. Piyasa, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerini ertelemesini fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30304","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30304"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30304\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30304"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30304"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30304"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}