{"id":30302,"date":"2026-03-13T17:08:15","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T17:08:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/commerzbank-aluminyum-%10-yukseldi-iran-catismasi-kaynakli-arz-endiseleri-korfez-ureticileri-ve-cindeki-uretim-tavani-destekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T17:08:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T17:08:15","slug":"commerzbank-aluminyum-%10-yukseldi-iran-catismasi-kaynakli-arz-endiseleri-korfez-ureticileri-ve-cindeki-uretim-tavani-destekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/commerzbank-aluminyum-%10-yukseldi-iran-catismasi-kaynakli-arz-endiseleri-korfez-ureticileri-ve-cindeki-uretim-tavani-destekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank: Al\u00fcminyum %10 y\u00fckseldi; \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 arz endi\u015feleri, K\u00f6rfez \u00fcreticileri ve \u00c7in\u2019deki \u00fcretim tavan\u0131 destekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Al\u00fcminyum, mart ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 y\u00fckseldi. Bu art\u0131\u015f, \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n tedarik (arz) risklerini art\u0131rmas\u0131 ve K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin \u00f6nemli bir \u00fcretici olmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. Fiyatlar ton ba\u015f\u0131na 3.500 dolar seviyesine yak\u0131n ve 2022 ilkbahar\u0131ndaki rekor zirvenin yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 alt\u0131nda.\n\n\u00c7in\u2019in al\u00fcminyum \u00fcretimi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00c7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcretici ve y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fcretim \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na (devletin belirledi\u011fi \u00fcretim tavan\u0131na) ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Piyasalar, \u00c7in verilerini ve Uluslararas\u0131 Al\u00fcminyum Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn (sekt\u00f6r verisi toplayan kurum) yak\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 rakamlar\u0131, ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerde \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretler i\u00e7in izleyecek.\n\nAsya\u2019da fiziki arz s\u0131k\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve b\u00f6lgesel primler y\u00fckseliyor. Prim, borsadaki fiyata ek olarak fiziki teslimatta \u00f6denen ek bedeldir. LME (Londra Metal Borsas\u0131) depolar\u0131ndan al\u00fcminyum \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan talepler 2024 ilkbahar\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; taleplerin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 Malezya\u2019daki depolara y\u00f6neldi.\n\nJaponya\u2019da al\u00fcminyum al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6dedi\u011fi primler 10 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine y\u00fckseldi. ABD\u2019de de fiziki prim, y\u00fcksek fiyatlarla birlikte rekor seviyede.\n\n\u00c7in, k\u0131sa vadede cazip fiyatlar nedeniyle ihracat\u0131 art\u0131rabilir; bu da arz \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltabilir.\n\nAl\u00fcminyumda belirgin bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Mart ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana fiyatlar, \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi arz endi\u015feleriyle yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 artt\u0131. LME Al\u00fcminyum, \u015fubat sonundaki ton ba\u015f\u0131na 3.180 dolar civar\u0131ndan 3.500 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine y\u00fckselerek 2022 ilkbahar\u0131ndaki rekor seviyelere yakla\u015ft\u0131. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in, al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya uzun vadeli kontrat (long futures: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalanmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) bu k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimine e\u015flik etmekte kullan\u0131labilir; ancak oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyattaki sert dalgalanman\u0131n) y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu unutulmamal\u0131.\n\nFiziki piyasa da bask\u0131y\u0131 net \u015fekilde g\u00f6steriyor. LME depolar\u0131ndan \u00e7ekilmek \u00fczere talep edilen metal miktar\u0131, 2024 ilkbahar\u0131ndaki benzer s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k d\u00f6neminden bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; kay\u0131tl\u0131 stoklar 400 bin tonun alt\u0131na indi. Japonya\u2019da fiziki primlerin ton ba\u015f\u0131na 250 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, nihai kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n (sanayide al\u00fcminyum kullanan \u015firketlerin) tedarik aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor ve fiyatlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentileri destekliyor.\n\nKritik de\u011fi\u015fken \u00c7in. Devletin belirledi\u011fi \u00fcretim tavan\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da i\u00e7 piyasada yeni arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek fiyatlar, stoklar\u0131n yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na sat\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir te\u015fvik yarat\u0131yor. \u0130hracat kotalar\u0131 (ihracata getirilen miktar s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131) veya resmi \u00fcretim verileri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; beklenmedik bir art\u0131\u015f, son kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 h\u0131zla geri \u00e7evirebilir.\n\nBu belirsizlik ortam\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Yak\u0131n vadeli al\u00fcminyum opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) %35\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, kritik veriler \u00f6ncesinde piyasan\u0131n gerginli\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Uluslararas\u0131 Al\u00fcminyum Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn yakla\u015fan \u00fcretim verileri \u00f6nemli bir tetikleyici olacak: ya k\u00fcresel arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (talebin arz\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131) do\u011frulayacak ya da di\u011fer \u00fcreticilerin y\u00fcksek fiyatlara yan\u0131t olarak \u00fcretimi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterecek.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Al\u00fcminyum rallisi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: Mart ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri %10 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 3.500 $\/tona dayand\u0131. \u0130ran gerilimi arz\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, Asya primleri rekor. \u00c7in \u00fcretim tavan\u0131nda; olas\u0131 ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dengeleri de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30302"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30302\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}