{"id":30299,"date":"2026-03-13T17:06:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T17:06:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobank-stratejistleri-orta-dogudaki-gerilimler-ve-piyasa-stresiyle-abd-dolarinin-guvenli-liman-rolunun-pekistigini-belirtti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T17:06:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T17:06:23","slug":"rabobank-stratejistleri-orta-dogudaki-gerilimler-ve-piyasa-stresiyle-abd-dolarinin-guvenli-liman-rolunun-pekistigini-belirtti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobank-stratejistleri-orta-dogudaki-gerilimler-ve-piyasa-stresiyle-abd-dolarinin-guvenli-liman-rolunun-pekistigini-belirtti\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank stratejistleri, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler ve piyasa stresiyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman rol\u00fcn\u00fcn peki\u015fti\u011fini belirtti"},"content":{"rendered":"Rabobank\u2019un FX (d\u00f6viz) Strateji ekibi, son Orta Do\u011fu gerilimleri ve genel piyasa stresiyle birlikte ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d rol\u00fcn\u00fcn daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini belirtiyor. Ekip bunu, dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerindeki ve merkez bankas\u0131 rezervlerindeki (\u00fclkelerin d\u00f6viz varl\u0131klar\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fck pay\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yor.\n\nUluslararas\u0131 \u00d6demeler Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BIS) \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda bir yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6viz anketine i\u015faret eden ekip, USD\u2019nin i\u015flemlerin %89,2\u2019sinde (i\u015flemin bir taraf\u0131nda) yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bu oran \u00f6nceki rapora g\u00f6re az da olsa daha y\u00fcksek ve di\u011fer para birimlerinin \u00fczerinde.\n\n<h3>Dolar Likiditesi G\u00fcvenli Liman Talebini Destekliyor<\/h3>\nEkip, USD\u2019nin y\u00fcksek likiditesinin (piyasada kolay al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131labilme, h\u0131zl\u0131 nakde \u00e7evrilebilme) stres d\u00f6nemlerinde talebi destekledi\u011fini belirtiyor. Ayr\u0131ca dolar\u0131n, ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi (tarife) a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na ba\u011flanan Nisan 2025 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6rece istikrarl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyor.\n\nRabobank, dolar\u0131n uzun vadede zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131na dair endi\u015felerin azalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bunun, piyasalar\u0131n \u201cuzun USD pozisyonu\u201d (dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle dolar al\u0131p ta\u015f\u0131ma) ta\u015f\u0131maya y\u00f6nelik isteksizli\u011fini azaltabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.\n\nY\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda ise ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) enflasyon y\u00fckselirken faiz indirmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki siyasi bask\u0131ya nas\u0131l yan\u0131t verece\u011fine ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fe dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Enflasyon risklerini; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 ve enerji ile g\u00fcbre maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n tedarik zincirlerini (mal\u0131n \u00fcretimden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131ma uzanan ak\u0131\u015f\u0131), da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m ve i\u015fleme d\u00e2hil, etkilemesine ba\u011fl\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki Haftalarda Oynakl\u0131\u011fa Haz\u0131rl\u0131k<\/h3>\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerilim, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131) s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu d\u00f6nemde tek y\u00f6ne net bir tahmin yapmak yerine, fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca d\u00f6viz paritelerinde \u201cstraddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir: Bunlar opsiyon stratejileridir (gelecekte belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) ve fiyat\u0131n yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket etmesi durumunda kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefler.\n\nFed\u2019in durumu daha karma\u015f\u0131k: Bir yanda enerji maliyetleriyle artan enflasyon, di\u011fer yanda gev\u015feme \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131 var. Bu belirsizlik, yakla\u015fan FOMC toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurul) piyasada dalgalanma yaratma potansiyelini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemleri (Fed politika faizine ili\u015fkin beklentilerle i\u015flem g\u00f6ren kontratlar) \u00fczerindeki t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7lar), beklenenden b\u00fcy\u00fck bir faiz hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon al\u0131nabilir.\n\nEnerji ve g\u00fcbre maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f k\u00fcresel ekonomiye yay\u0131lacak ve kazananlar-kaybedenler yaratacak. Ham petrolde vadeli i\u015flemlerle uzun pozisyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; ayr\u0131ca enerjide d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin para birimleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in bu para birimlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon (de\u011fer kayb\u0131 beklentisi) g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Benzer bir tablo ge\u00e7mi\u015f k\u00fcresel \u015foklarda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; \u00f6rne\u011fin 2020\u2019de sermaye daha riskli ekonomilerden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p do\u011frudan dolara y\u00f6nelmi\u015fti.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Orta Do\u011fu gerilimiyle dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesi yeniden zirvede: Rabobank, USD\u2019nin %89,2 i\u015flem pay\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek likiditesiyle talebi toplad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Fed belirsizli\u011finin oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30299","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30299","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30299"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30299\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30299"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30299"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30299"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}