{"id":30274,"date":"2026-03-13T10:04:19","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T10:04:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/danske-analistleri-ihracattaki-artisla-abdnin-mal-ticareti-aciginin-daraldigini-ancak-daha-sonra-yeniden-genisleyebilecegini-soyledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T10:04:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T10:04:19","slug":"danske-analistleri-ihracattaki-artisla-abdnin-mal-ticareti-aciginin-daraldigini-ancak-daha-sonra-yeniden-genisleyebilecegini-soyledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/danske-analistleri-ihracattaki-artisla-abdnin-mal-ticareti-aciginin-daraldigini-ancak-daha-sonra-yeniden-genisleyebilecegini-soyledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Danske analistleri, ihracattaki art\u0131\u015fla ABD\u2019nin mal ticareti a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak daha sonra yeniden geni\u015fleyebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD mal ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ocakta ihracat\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131yla 99,2 milyar dolardan 81,8 milyar dolara geriledi. Ancak a\u00e7\u0131k, ge\u00e7en sonbaharda g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.\n\nA\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. Bunun nedeni, ithalat hacimlerinin (\u00fclkeye giren mal miktar\u0131) toparlanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131. Beklenen veriler aras\u0131nda, Michigan \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nin mart ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc (h\u0131zl\u0131) anketi yer al\u0131yor. Bu anket, t\u00fcketicilerin enflasyon alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini) \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcyor.\n\n<h3>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00d6nemli Veri A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131<\/h3>\nOcak ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) enflasyon verisi de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. PCE, hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n harcamalar\u0131na dayanan bir enflasyon g\u00f6stergesidir. \u00c7ekirdek PCE ise g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak (h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fen) kalemler hari\u00e7 tutularak hesaplan\u0131r ve daha \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131\u201d fiyat e\u011filimini g\u00f6stermeyi ama\u00e7lar.  \n\nOcak ay\u0131 JOLTS raporu da gecikmeli gelecek. JOLTS, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 ve i\u015ften ayr\u0131lmalar gibi verileri g\u00f6steren \u201c\u0130\u015f \u0130lanlar\u0131 ve \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Devir Anketi\u201ddir. Gecikme, kamu kapanmas\u0131 (devlet kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e nedeniyle ge\u00e7ici durmas\u0131) ile ili\u015fkilendirildi.\n\n2025\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir iyile\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. O d\u00f6nem piyasa beklentisi (konsens\u00fcs), bunun ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. \u0130thalat toparland\u0131k\u00e7a a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu.\n\nAncak mevcut veriler bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc zorluyor. N\u00fcfus Say\u0131m B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (Census Bureau) ocak 2026 verisine g\u00f6re, mal ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklenmedik \u015fekilde 75,4 milyar dolara geriledi. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte y\u00fcksek teknoloji ve enerji ihracat\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f etkili oldu. Bu e\u011filim son \u00e7eyrekte kademeli bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek \u00f6nceki tahminlerin tersine gitti.\n\nTicaret dengesindeki bu kal\u0131c\u0131 iyile\u015fme, ABD dolar\u0131nda temel bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolardan faydalanan i\u015flemleri de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin USD\/JPY\u2019de al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya EUR\/USD\u2019de sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) gibi. \u0130hracat g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasay\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmaya devam ederse, bu t\u00fcr stratejiler kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.\n\n<h3>Enflasyon ve Faiz G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\nEnflasyon oda\u011f\u0131 da 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki tabloya g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fti. O d\u00f6nemde jeopolitik gerilimler ve y\u00fcksek akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131 ana risk olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, bug\u00fcn anlat\u0131 dezenflasyon (enflasyonun h\u0131z kesmesi) \u00fczerine kurulu. Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu ge\u00e7en ay %2,3 geldi. Bu sonu\u00e7, piyasada y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.\n\nFed\u2019in art\u0131k gev\u015femeye (para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131ktan daha destekleyici bir \u00e7izgiye \u00e7ekmeye) y\u00f6neldi\u011fine dair sinyal vermesiyle, faiz t\u00fcrevleri (faiz oranlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fme ve opsiyon gibi ara\u00e7lar) yeniden \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinin opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (gelecekteki fiyata ili\u015fkin al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getirilere (tahvil faizlerine) pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullanabilir. Bu ortam, 2025\u2019teki belirsizli\u011fe k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na (fiyatlar\u0131n sert dalgalanma d\u00fczeyine) i\u015faret ediyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S\u00fcrpriz! ABD mal ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ocakta 81,8 milyar dolara geriledi; ihracat ivmesi kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenme sinyali veriyor. PCE, Michigan ve JOLTS izlemede; dezenflasyon Fed indirimi beklentisini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Dolar destekli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30274","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30274","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30274"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30274\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30274"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30274"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30274"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}