{"id":30258,"date":"2026-03-13T07:04:15","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T07:04:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/asya-islemleri-sirasinda-avustralya-dolari-07090-civarinda-gucleniyor-piyasalar-mart-ayinda-rba-faiz-artisi-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T07:04:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T07:04:15","slug":"asya-islemleri-sirasinda-avustralya-dolari-07090-civarinda-gucleniyor-piyasalar-mart-ayinda-rba-faiz-artisi-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/asya-islemleri-sirasinda-avustralya-dolari-07090-civarinda-gucleniyor-piyasalar-mart-ayinda-rba-faiz-artisi-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Asya i\u015flemleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda Avustralya dolar\u0131 0,7090 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; piyasalar mart ay\u0131nda RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD, \u00f6nceki seansta %1\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fckten sonra Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,7090 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. Hareket, piyasalar\u0131n Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine (yani faizleri art\u0131rarak talebi so\u011futmas\u0131na) odaklanmas\u0131yla geldi.\n\nReuters anketine g\u00f6re 30 ekonomistin 23\u2019\u00fc RBA\u2019n\u0131n 17 Mart\u2019ta politika faizini (Official Cash Rate: Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli ana faizi) %4,10\u2019a \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 7\u2019si ise de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu, \u015eubat anketinde faizin %3,85\u2019te kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinden ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>Faiz Beklentileri ve Piyasa Fiyatlamas\u0131<\/h3>\nAnketin ortanca (median) tahmini, politika faizinin 2026 sonuna kadar %4,35\u2019e ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasalar, para piyasas\u0131 vadeli i\u015flemlerine (cash rate futures: gelecekteki politika faizi beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) g\u00f6re gelecek hafta 25 baz puanl\u0131k (1 baz puan = %0,01) art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.\n\nING\u2019den Francesco Pesole, Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 G10 para birimleri (en b\u00fcy\u00fck geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin para birimleri) aras\u0131nda en iyi performans g\u00f6sterenlerden biri olarak niteledi. Bunda RBA\u2019n\u0131n ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin etkili oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 kal\u0131rsa paritenin 0,7200\u2019e y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fini, ancak \u201cpozisyonlar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 birikmi\u015f\u201d (stretched positioning: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde fazla pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131) olmas\u0131n\u0131n karar sonras\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme riskini art\u0131rabilece\u011fini belirtti.\n\nYat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca ABD enflasyon verisini bekliyor; Ocak ay\u0131 Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 Fiyat Endeksi (PCE: Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Takvimde ayr\u0131ca 4. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin (GDP: ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) ilk revizyonu ve Mart t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni verisi yer al\u0131yor.\n\n2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki havay\u0131 da hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz: RBA\u2019n\u0131n agresif (sert) faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentileri y\u00fcksekti ve AUD\/USD 0,7100 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. O d\u00f6nemde piyasalar, Mart 2025 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yordu. Bu \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015f (hawkish: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz yanl\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m), RBA\u2019n\u0131n enflasyonu kontrol etmek i\u00e7in faizleri belirgin \u015fekilde art\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi inanc\u0131ndan besleniyordu.\n\n<h3>G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm 2026\u2019ya Nas\u0131l Kayd\u0131<\/h3>\nBu d\u00f6nemin ard\u0131ndan RBA, Mart 2025\u2019te faiz art\u0131rd\u0131 ancak yaln\u0131zca 25 baz puanla %3,60\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; bu da daha sert art\u0131\u015f bekleyenleri hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011fratt\u0131. Avustralya dolar\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) kendi faiz art\u0131\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc (hiking cycle: ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 d\u00f6nemi) daha kararl\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle sonraki aylarda zay\u0131flad\u0131. 2025 sonuna gelindi\u011finde RBA politika faizi %4,35\u2019e ula\u015f\u0131rken Fed fonlama faizi (Fed Funds Rate: Fed\u2019in k\u0131sa vadeli hedef faizi) daha yukar\u0131da, %5,50 zirvesinde bulunuyordu.\n\nMart 2026 itibar\u0131yla tablo \u00e7ok farkl\u0131: her iki merkez bankas\u0131 da aylard\u0131r \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d d\u00f6neminde (prolonged pause: faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden uzun s\u00fcre sabit tutma) kald\u0131. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n 2025 son \u00e7eyrek enflasyonunun y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,1 gelmesi ve ABD enflasyonunun h\u00e2l\u00e2 %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde seyretmesi nedeniyle yak\u0131n vadeli faiz indirimi beklentileri \u00f6telenmi\u015f durumda. Bu da paritede daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) yaratarak AUD\/USD\u2019nin 0,6650 \u00e7evresinde daha dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.\n\nBu durum, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yatay bantta (range-bound: belirli bir aral\u0131kta gidip gelme) hareketten kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejileri daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadeli \u201cstrangle\u201d satmak (opsiyon stratejisi: iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p\/satmaya dayal\u0131; bu \u00f6rnekte fiyat iki seviye aras\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 ama\u00e7lan\u0131r) mevcut ortamda etkili olabilir. Piyasa, yak\u0131n vadede ne RBA\u2019dan ne de Fed\u2019den b\u00fcy\u00fck bir politika s\u00fcrprizi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor.\n\nAncak bu istikrar\u0131 bozabilecek d\u0131\u015f etkenler de var. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nemli ihracat kalemlerinden demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131; ton ba\u015f\u0131na 130 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden 115 dolar civar\u0131na geriledi. Emtia (commodity: k\u00fcresel piyasada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren ham madde) fiyatlar\u0131nda ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, faiz beklentileri sabit kalsa bile Avustralya dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUD\/USD\u2019de g\u00f6zler RBA\u2019da: Reuters anketi faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken parite 0,7090\u2019a toparland\u0131. Piyasalar 25 bp art\u0131\u015fa %70 \u015fans veriyor; ABD PCE ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131 risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30258","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30258"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30258\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}