{"id":30250,"date":"2026-03-13T05:02:38","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T05:02:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/catismanin-baslamasindan-bu-yana-geoff-yu-hedgelerin-yeniden-ayarlanmasi-ve-cin-hisse-senetlerinin-direncli-kalmasiyla-yuan-talebinin-guclendigine-dikkat-cekiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T05:02:38","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T05:02:38","slug":"catismanin-baslamasindan-bu-yana-geoff-yu-hedgelerin-yeniden-ayarlanmasi-ve-cin-hisse-senetlerinin-direncli-kalmasiyla-yuan-talebinin-guclendigine-dikkat-cekiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/catismanin-baslamasindan-bu-yana-geoff-yu-hedgelerin-yeniden-ayarlanmasi-ve-cin-hisse-senetlerinin-direncli-kalmasiyla-yuan-talebinin-guclendigine-dikkat-cekiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana Geoff Yu, hedge\u2019lerin yeniden ayarlanmas\u0131 ve \u00c7in hisse senetlerinin diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131yla yuan talebinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor"},"content":{"rendered":"BNY, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri \u00c7in yuan\u0131na (CNY) talebin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Banka, bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n esas olarak \u201chedge \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi\u201dnden (kur riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nce yap\u0131lan koruma i\u015flemlerinin kapat\u0131lmas\u0131) kaynaklanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00c7in varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n (hisse senetleri dahil) dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.\n\nYuanda \u201chedge\u201d (kur riskine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma) seviyesi \u015fu anda son 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k hareketli ortalaman\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 alt\u0131nda. BNY bunu, daha \u00f6nce d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutulmu\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131n (beklenenden az ta\u015f\u0131nan yuan pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n) normale d\u00f6nmesiyle ili\u015fkilendirdi.\n\n<h3>Yuan Volatilitesi S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 Kal\u0131yor<\/h3>\nBNY, kurun resmi y\u00f6netimi sayesinde \u201cger\u00e7ekle\u015fen volatilitenin\u201d (fiyat\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki fiili dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Banka ayr\u0131ca, Asya-Pasifik genelinde yak\u0131n vadeli cari fazla beklentilerinin enerji arz\u0131ndaki darbo\u011fazlar (tedarik s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) nedeniyle risk alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu, \u00c7in\u2019in ise Kuzey ve Do\u011fu Asya\u2019daki benzer \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re daha az etkilendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.\n\nZaman i\u00e7inde, piyasalara eri\u015fim kolayla\u015f\u0131r ve sermaye piyasas\u0131 reformlar\u0131 s\u00fcrerse, \u00c7in tahvilleri ve hisselerine kademeli bir yeniden y\u00f6nelim bekleniyor. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00c7in varl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki pay\u0131n\u0131n ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na k\u0131yasla h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu, bu nedenle \u00c7in\u2019e ilginin artmas\u0131n\u0131n ABD portf\u00f6y da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fi not edildi.\n\n\u00c7in yuan\u0131nda, yaln\u0131zca eski hedge\u2019lerin kapanmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanmayan dikkat \u00e7ekici bir al\u0131m art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6zleniyor. USD\/CNY paritesi (ABD dolar\u0131\/\u00c7in yuan\u0131 kuru) 7,20\u2019nin alt\u0131nda dengede kal\u0131rken, 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda biriken \u201ceksik hedge edilmi\u015f\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131n (kur riskine kar\u015f\u0131 yeterince korunmam\u0131\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131n) temizlendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durum, ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde kur i\u00e7in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek zemini olu\u015fturuyor.\n\nYuan\u0131n resmi y\u00f6netimi, sert hareketleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak dalgalanmay\u0131 mevcut k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullara k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutuyor. USD\/CNY\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k \u201cima edilen volatilite\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %4,8 civar\u0131nda. Bu oran, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l sonundaki zirvelere g\u00f6re belirgin bir gerileme. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, bu istikrar\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen i\u015flemciler i\u00e7in \u201cvolatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201dn\u0131 (dalgalanma \u00fczerine prim toplayan stratejiler) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cshort strangle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede, farkl\u0131 seviyelerde al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu satarak prim toplama; kurun dar bantta kalmas\u0131na oynayan strateji) bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n bir t\u00fcr\u00fc.\n\n<h3>Sermaye Ak\u0131mlar\u0131 Yuan\u0131 Destekliyor<\/h3>\n\u00c7in varl\u0131klar\u0131na do\u011fru kademeli ama istikrarl\u0131 bir sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu e\u011filim, ge\u00e7en ay \u00fclkenin tahvil piyasas\u0131na giren yakla\u015f\u0131k 12 milyar dolarla do\u011frulan\u0131yor. Bu portf\u00f6y da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131m sepetindeki varl\u0131k pay\u0131) ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na g\u00f6re h\u00e2l\u00e2 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olsa da, yuana d\u00fczenli bir talep yarat\u0131yor. Bu da, istikrarl\u0131 ya da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanan bir para biriminden fayda sa\u011flayan pozisyonlar\u0131 destekliyor.\n\n2025 sonuna d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, k\u00fcresel ticaret endi\u015feleri nedeniyle bir\u00e7ok piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 daha zay\u0131f bir yuan beklentisiyle pozisyon alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Hedge seviyeleri h\u00e2l\u00e2 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, \u015firketler ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yuan pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir alan var. Bu da, hedge faaliyetinde olas\u0131 bir \u201cyakalama\u201d hareketine (gecikmi\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesine) kar\u015f\u0131 yuan \u201cal\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir se\u00e7enek haline getirebilir.\n\n\u00c7in\u2019in, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Kuzey ve Do\u011fu Asya\u2019daki kom\u015fular\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen enerji arz darbo\u011fazlar\u0131na g\u00f6rece daha az maruz kalmas\u0131 olumlu bir unsur olmaya devam ediyor. Caixin \u0130malat PMI verisinde (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi: 50 \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 50 alt\u0131 daralma) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret eden son okuma, ekonominin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. \u201cT\u00fcrev\u201d (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa, \u00f6rne\u011fin kura ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, di\u011fer Asya para birimlerinde yeniden zay\u0131flama g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi halinde uzun yuan pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (yuan\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na veya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon) bir \u201ckoruma\u201d arac\u0131 haline getirebilir.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S\u0131cak geli\u015fme: BNY\u2019ye g\u00f6re \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sonras\u0131 CNY talebi art\u0131yor; sebep hedge \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi de\u011fil. Hedge seviyesi %30 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, volatilite %4,8. Sermaye giri\u015fleri ve reformlar yuana destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30250"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30250\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30250"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30250"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}