{"id":30245,"date":"2026-03-13T04:01:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T04:01:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ocbc-stratejistleri-petrol-ve-iran-kaynakli-risklerin-istahi-torpulemesiyle-usd-cnhnin-dip-seviyeler-yakininda-yatay-seyrettigini-momentumun-zayifladigini-gozlemliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T04:01:32","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T04:01:32","slug":"ocbc-stratejistleri-petrol-ve-iran-kaynakli-risklerin-istahi-torpulemesiyle-usd-cnhnin-dip-seviyeler-yakininda-yatay-seyrettigini-momentumun-zayifladigini-gozlemliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ocbc-stratejistleri-petrol-ve-iran-kaynakli-risklerin-istahi-torpulemesiyle-usd-cnhnin-dip-seviyeler-yakininda-yatay-seyrettigini-momentumun-zayifladigini-gozlemliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"OCBC stratejistleri, petrol ve \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 risklerin i\u015ftah\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fclemesiyle USD\/CNH\u2019nin dip seviyeler yak\u0131n\u0131nda yatay seyretti\u011fini, momentumun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/CNH, son dip seviyelerine yak\u0131n dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve gece saatlerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin devam\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Piyasa havas\u0131, IEA\u2019n\u0131n (Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131) rezervlerden rekor d\u00fczeyde 400 milyon varil petrol salma plan\u0131na ra\u011fmen, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesi ve \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik risklerle olumsuz etkilendi.\n\nG\u00fcnl\u00fck CNY sabitlemesinin (PBoC\u2019nin\/\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n her g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirici kur) daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Ancak genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc ana belirleyiciler olmaya devam etti. Jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n piyasada \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemleri (hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m) art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.\n\n<h3>Relative Performance Across Asian Currencies<\/h3>\nG\u00f6reli olarak RMB\u2019nin (\u00c7in yuan\u0131), petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131na daha duyarl\u0131 baz\u0131 Asya para birimlerine k\u0131yasla daha istikrarl\u0131 oldu\u011fu ifade edildi. KRW (G\u00fcney Kore wonu) ve PHP\u2019nin (Filipin pesosu) petrol ve piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131ndaki bozulmalara daha a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131.\n\nTeknik seviyelerde (grafik temelli destek\/diren\u00e7 noktalar\u0131) destek 6,85\u20136,86 band\u0131 ve \u015fubat ay\u0131 dibi olan 6,8270 olarak aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Diren\u00e7 ise 6,89 (21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama: son 21 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131) ve 6,9280 (50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama) seviyelerine konumland\u0131.\n\nUSD\/CNH paritesi yatay bir konsolidasyon s\u00fcrecinde (fiyat\u0131n dar aral\u0131kta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; 2025\u2019te baz\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na benzer bir tablo izleniyor. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 ve jeopolitik riskler genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu ortam \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.\n\nYak\u0131n vadede paritenin bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131 beklenirken, opsiyonlarla oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Oynakl\u0131k (volatilite: fiyat\u0131n dalgalanma derecesi) i\u00e7in bir g\u00f6sterge olan 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) %5,5\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseliyor. Parite bantta kal\u0131rsa bu seviye y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Iron condor (ayn\u0131 vadede iki al\u0131m ve iki sat\u0131m opsiyonuyla kurulan, bant hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) veya short straddle (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu satarak prim toplama stratejisi) gibi yap\u0131lar, piyasa yeni bir tetikleyici beklerken prim geliri elde etmeyi hedefleyebilir.\n\n<h3>Risk Management For Short Volatility Trades<\/h3>\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, sakin d\u00f6nemler sert hareketlerin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olabiliyor; IEA\u2019n\u0131n 2025 rezerv sal\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131 piyasa tepkisi k\u0131sa s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Jeopolitik tansiyonun aniden y\u00fckselmesi pariteyi h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 itebilir. Bu nedenle oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 risk kurallar\u0131yla y\u00f6netilmeli.\n\nYuan, petrol \u015foklar\u0131na daha duyarl\u0131 Asya para birimlerine (\u00f6rne\u011fin KRW) g\u00f6re daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kalabilir. \u00c7in\u2019in son Caixin PMI verisi 51,2 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret etti (PMI: Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcme anlam\u0131na gelir) ve temel tarafta destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, g\u00f6reli de\u011fer i\u015flemleriyle (iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n performans fark\u0131na oynayan i\u015flemler) ifade edilebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin forward ile (forward: ileri tarihte belirli kurdan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) KRW\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 CNH almak.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/CNH dip yak\u0131n\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc PBoC fixingi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek verirken, y\u00fcksek petrol, \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik riskler ve zay\u0131f risk i\u015ftah\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc belirliyor. Bantta kal\u0131rsa volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30245"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30245\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}