{"id":30243,"date":"2026-03-13T03:01:45","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T03:01:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/verilere-gore-arjantinde-aylik-tufe-subatta-yuzde-29-ile-yuzde-27lik-tahminleri-asti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T03:01:45","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T03:01:45","slug":"verilere-gore-arjantinde-aylik-tufe-subatta-yuzde-29-ile-yuzde-27lik-tahminleri-asti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/verilere-gore-arjantinde-aylik-tufe-subatta-yuzde-29-ile-yuzde-27lik-tahminleri-asti\/","title":{"rendered":"Verilere g\u00f6re Arjantin\u2019de ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE \u015fubatta y\u00fczde 2,9 ile y\u00fczde 2,7\u2019lik tahminleri a\u015ft\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"Arjantin\u2019in T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (ayl\u0131k) \u015eubat ay\u0131nda %2,9 artt\u0131. Veri, beklenen %2,7\u2019nin \u00fczerinde geldi.\n\nT\u00dcFE, t\u00fcketicilerin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re ne kadar de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6sterir. \u015eubat verisi, fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tahminden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu\u011funu i\u015faret ediyor.\n\n<h3>Politika Faizi G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n\u015eubat ay\u0131ndaki beklenenden y\u00fcksek %2,9\u2019luk enflasyon, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 zay\u0131flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum Arjantin Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (BCRA) zor bir noktaya getiriyor ve %45 seviyesindeki politika faizini yak\u0131n vadede indirmesini olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal haline getiriyor. Bu nedenle faizlerin, piyasan\u0131n daha \u00f6nce bekledi\u011finden daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 olas\u0131.\n\nBu diren\u00e7li enflasyon, Arjantin pesosu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Normalde y\u00fcksek faiz, para birimini destekler; ancak enflasyon kal\u0131c\u0131 olunca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n \u201cger\u00e7ek getirisi\u201d d\u00fc\u015fer (ger\u00e7ek getiri = faizden enflasyonun etkisi \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra kalan kazan\u00e7) ve g\u00fcven zedelenir. Dolar kurunda resmi seviye 1 dolar = 1.250 ARS iken, paralel piyasadaki \u201cblue dollar\u201d (resmi olmayan\/alternatif dolar kuru) 1.800\u2019e yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu fark, kurda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n birikti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nYat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, pesonun \u201ccrawling peg\u201d (kurun her g\u00fcn\/hafta k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ad\u0131mlarla, kontroll\u00fc \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 ayarlanmas\u0131) h\u0131zlanmas\u0131na ya da daha sert bir kur d\u00fczeltmesine kar\u015f\u0131 \u201copsiyon\u201dlarla (belirli bir tarihe kadar, \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) korunmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Pesonun \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201dn\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel. Benzer bir tablo 2025 ortas\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir enflasyon s\u00fcrprizi d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda keskin ama ge\u00e7ici oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\n\n2024\u2019teki hiperenflasyon d\u00f6nemine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ayl\u0131k %2,9 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir; ancak art\u0131k ko\u015fullar farkl\u0131. Piyasa, enflasyonun sorunsuz \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yordu. Bu nedenle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz \u00f6nemli. Enflasyonu kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmenin son a\u015famas\u0131n\u0131n, ekonomik istikrar program\u0131n\u0131n en zor k\u0131sm\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\n<h3>Piyasa Etkileri<\/h3>\nMerval hisse endeksi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu haber olumsuz, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek faiz ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131layabilir ve \u015firket k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 daraltabilir. Endeksin son bir y\u0131lda %120\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan d\u00fczeltmeye a\u00e7\u0131k hale gelmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. ABD\u2019de i\u015flem g\u00f6ren ARGT gibi bir ETF \u00fczerinde \u201ckoruyucu put\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu) almak, hisse riskini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.\n\nBu enflasyon verisi, Arjantin\u2019in \u201cCDS spread\u201dlerinde (kredi temerr\u00fct takas\u0131 primi; \u00fclkenin borcunu \u00f6deyememe riskine kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta maliyeti) mevcut yakla\u015f\u0131k 1.400 baz puan seviyesinden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc geni\u015flemeye yol a\u00e7abilir. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin b\u00fct\u00e7e fazlas\u0131n\u0131 koruyabilmesi ekonomik istikrara ba\u011fl\u0131; kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon bunu tehdit ediyor. \u00dclke risk alg\u0131s\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f, CDS korumas\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 daha yayg\u0131n bir i\u015flem haline getirebilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u015eok veri: Arjantin \u015eubat ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE %2,9 ile beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. BCRA\u2019n\u0131n %45 faizi indirmesi zorla\u015f\u0131yor; peso bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda, blue-resmi makas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Hisse\/CDS riskleri art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30243","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30243","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30243"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30243\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30243"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30243"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30243"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}