{"id":30238,"date":"2026-03-13T02:04:19","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T02:04:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/riskten-kacis-egilimi-ve-petrol-arzina-iliskin-endiseler-dolari-destekliyor-eur-usdyi-11520-civarinda-2026-diplerine-yaklastiriyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T02:04:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T02:04:19","slug":"riskten-kacis-egilimi-ve-petrol-arzina-iliskin-endiseler-dolari-destekliyor-eur-usdyi-11520-civarinda-2026-diplerine-yaklastiriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/riskten-kacis-egilimi-ve-petrol-arzina-iliskin-endiseler-dolari-destekliyor-eur-usdyi-11520-civarinda-2026-diplerine-yaklastiriyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi ve petrol arz\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler dolar\u0131 destekliyor, EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,1520 civar\u0131nda 2026 diplerine yakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD dolar\u0131, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD seans\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Petrol arz\u0131nda kesinti olabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesi piyasa havas\u0131n\u0131 bozdu. EUR\/USD 1,1520 civar\u0131nda seyretti; 2026\u2019n\u0131n dip seviyesi olan 1,1507\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.\n\nOdak, s\u00fcren sald\u0131r\u0131lar ve gemi ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tehdit haberleri nedeniyle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda kald\u0131. Haberlerde kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerin tankerlerinin hedef al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7i\u015fe may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015fedi\u011fi (gemilerin ge\u00e7i\u015fini engellemek i\u00e7in suya b\u0131rak\u0131lan patlay\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fczenek) belirtildi. Mojtaba Hamaney de Bo\u011faz\u2019\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.\n\n<h3>Petrol Arz\u0131 Riskleri ve Dolar\u0131n G\u00fcc\u00fc<\/h3>\nDonald Trump, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol \u00fcreticisi olan ABD\u2019nin fiyatlar y\u00fckseldi\u011finde kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi ve WTI\u2019\u0131n 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc (denk geldi\u011fi) endi\u015felerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde geldi. (Brent ve WTI, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n takip edildi\u011fi iki ana g\u00f6sterge t\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr.)\n\nCuma g\u00fcn\u00fc piyasalar ABD Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ni izleyecek. (PCE, t\u00fcketicinin sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 mal ve hizmetlerin fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini g\u00f6steren enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fcd\u00fcr.) Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi dalgal\u0131 kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon) %3 iken, ocak verisi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.\n\n1 saatlik grafikte EUR\/USD 1,1523\u2019teydi ve 20, 100 ve 200 periyotluk SMA\u2019lar\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama: fiyat\u0131n belirli d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131; trendi g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r) alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; bu ortalamalar\u0131n tamam\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimliydi. Diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlanma b\u00f6lgesi) 1,1540, 1,1585 ve 1,1606 seviyelerinde izlenirken, destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunma b\u00f6lgesi) 1,1507 ve ard\u0131ndan 1,1470 seviyelerindeydi.\n\n12 Mart 18:47 tarihli d\u00fczeltmede, aral\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin %2,9 de\u011fil %3 oldu\u011fu belirtildi.\n\n<h3>Opsiyon Pozisyonlanmas\u0131 ve Riskten Korunma Fikirleri<\/h3>\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131yla piyasalarda klasik \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tercih edilen varl\u0131k) aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor ve bu durum ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Arz kesintisi riski petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutabilir; bu da dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini dikkate almas\u0131 gerekir.\n\nHam petrolde f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; WTI varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma b\u00fcy\u00fcrse fiyatlar\u0131n daha da artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) \u00fczerine al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak, y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynayan do\u011frudan bir y\u00f6ntemdir. Enerji Bilgi \u0130daresi (EIA) raporlar\u0131 da piyasadaki s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011fruluyor: Ge\u00e7en hafta ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 2,8 milyon varillik beklenmedik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (stoklar\u0131n azalmas\u0131 genelde fiyat\u0131 destekler) g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.\n\nD\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda EUR\/USD\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131k, 2026 diplerine yak\u0131n seviyelerde belirgin bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. 1,1507 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 hedefleyerek EUR\/USD\u2019de sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmeli. (Put opsiyonu, belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 verir; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.) Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00f6nceden belli riskle (maksimum zarar primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r) euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.\n\nYar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ocak PCE verisi \u00f6nemli bir tetikleyici olacak. Aral\u0131k 2025\u2019te \u00e7ekirdek PCE zaten %3\u2019t\u00fc; yeni veri daha y\u00fcksek gelirse, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u00fczerinde \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fu (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma veya art\u0131rma e\u011filimi) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme bask\u0131s\u0131 artar. Enflasyonun beklentiden y\u00fcksek gelmesi (piyasada \u201cs\u0131cak\u201d veri: enflasyonun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi), dolar\u0131 yukar\u0131, EUR\/USD\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itebilir.\n\nJeopolitik gerilim ve kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, genel piyasa i\u015ftah\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz. Bu nedenle hisse piyasas\u0131nda korunma (hedge: olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 azaltmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck i\u015flem) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Daha geni\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 S&#038;P 500 \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. VIX\u2019te (piyasadaki oynakl\u0131k\/stres g\u00f6stergesi) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 da oynakl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir; VIX \u015fu s\u0131ralar 22 civar\u0131nda.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi petrol arz\u0131 korkusunu b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc, g\u00fcvenli liman dolar g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131. EUR\/USD 1,1520\u2019de, 1,1507 deste\u011fi kritik. Piyasalar yar\u0131n PCE\u2019yi beklerken petrol ve endekste opsiyonlu hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30238","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30238","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30238"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30238\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30238"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30238"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30238"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}