{"id":30237,"date":"2026-03-13T02:03:27","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T02:03:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/guclenen-abd-dolari-ve-yukselen-hazine-tahvil-getirileri-altindaki-yukari-yonlu-hareketi-sinirlarken-altin-dususle-islem-goruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T02:03:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T02:03:27","slug":"guclenen-abd-dolari-ve-yukselen-hazine-tahvil-getirileri-altindaki-yukari-yonlu-hareketi-sinirlarken-altin-dususle-islem-goruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/guclenen-abd-dolari-ve-yukselen-hazine-tahvil-getirileri-altindaki-yukari-yonlu-hareketi-sinirlarken-altin-dususle-islem-goruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"G\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen Hazine tahvil getirileri, alt\u0131ndaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken alt\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131n, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve ABD Hazine tahvili faizlerinin (Treasury yields: devlet tahvillerinin piyasadaki getiri\/faiz oran\u0131) y\u00fckselmesiyle geriledi; y\u00fckseli\u015f denemeleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. XAU\/USD (ons alt\u0131n\/dolar paritesi) 5.113 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,20 d\u00fc\u015ferken bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131.\n\nABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 13. g\u00fcn\u00fcne girdi; sald\u0131r\u0131lar yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131 ve tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine dair net bir i\u015faret g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi. \u0130ran, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirmek i\u00e7in ko\u015fullar a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; \u00fclke y\u00f6netimi, bask\u0131 unsuru olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 destekledi.\n\n

Strait Of Hormuz Supply Risks<\/h3>\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki kesinti riski petrol arz\u0131na (supply: piyasaya sunulan miktar) ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n tankerleri ve ticari gemileri hedef almas\u0131 bu endi\u015feyi b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc. BHH raporuna g\u00f6re g\u00fczerg\u00e2htan g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 15 milyon varil ge\u00e7iyor; alternatif rotalar tamamen kullan\u0131lsa bile ak\u0131\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn (mb\/d: milyon varil\/g\u00fcn) seviyesinde kal\u0131yor.\n\nIEA (Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131), acil durum stoklar\u0131ndan 400 milyon varil petrol\u00fcn piyasaya s\u00fcr\u00fclmesini kabul etti; bunun 172 milyon varili ABD Stratejik Petrol Rezervi\u2019nden (Strategic Petroleum Reserve: devletin acil durum i\u00e7in tuttu\u011fu petrol stoku) gelecek. Ak\u0131\u015f tahminlerine g\u00f6re bu miktar, olas\u0131 bir kesintiyi yakla\u015f\u0131k 27 ila 40 g\u00fcn telafi edebilir.\n\nPiyasalar art\u0131k 2026\u2019da 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bps: baz puan; 1 baz puan = %0,01) tek bir faiz indirimi ihtimalini bile tam olarak fiyatlam\u0131yor; bu da dolar\u0131 destekliyor. G\u00f6zler \u015fimdi Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD PCE Fiyat Endeksi (PCE: Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyonu g\u00f6stergesi) verisine \u00e7evrildi.\n\nTeknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde alt\u0131n 5.000-5.250 dolar band\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor. RSI (G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m durumunu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 55 civar\u0131nda, ADX (Ortalama Y\u00f6n Endeksi: trendin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 12 civar\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 5.200 ve 5.238 dolar; destek ise 5.115, 4.932 ve 4.556 dolar seviyelerinde.\n\n

Positioning And Volatility Strategies<\/h3>\nMerkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi; bunun de\u011feri yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolarla rekor seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131. Alt\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ABD dolar\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvilleriyle ters y\u00f6nde hareket eder.\n\n13 Mart 2026 itibar\u0131yla alt\u0131n, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131t etkenler aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadede tek y\u00f6ne \u201ckeskin\u201d pozisyon almak riskli. S\u00fcren ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman talebi (safe haven: belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) sayesinde fiyatlara taban olu\u015fturuyor. Ancak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi enflasyon endi\u015fesi, \u015fahin Fed\u2019i (hawkish: enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; bu da dolar\u0131 destekleyip alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\nSon veriler bu tabloyu yans\u0131t\u0131yor: Brent petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (futures: ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) stratejik stok sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ra\u011fmen varil ba\u015f\u0131na 150 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. Bu durum, enflasyon beklentilerini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; ge\u00e7en haftaki T\u00dcFE (CPI: T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) verisinde y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun beklenmedik \u015fekilde %4,1\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bunu destekledi. Sonu\u00e7 olarak Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (Fed funds futures: piyasalar\u0131n Fed faizi beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) 2026 i\u00e7in faiz indirimi ihtimali tamamen fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (derivatives: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, y\u00fcksek gerilimin dar bir bantla birlikte g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi \u201coynakl\u0131k\u201d stratejilerini (volatility strategies: fiyat\u0131n sert hareketinden faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyen y\u00f6ntemler) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda vadesi olan straddle\/strangle almak (straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu; strangle: farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu) Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da gerilimin artmas\u0131 ya da aniden azalmas\u0131yla olu\u015fabilecek sert k\u0131r\u0131lmadan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flaman\u0131n bir yolu olabilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, hareketin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nceden tahmin etmeyi gerektirmez.\n\nGrafik de yatay seyri do\u011fruluyor: alt\u0131n, 5.000 dolar\u0131n \u201cpsikolojik\u201d e\u015fi\u011fi ile 5.250 dolardaki diren\u00e7 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu seviyelerle iron condor gibi yap\u0131land\u0131rmalar (iron condor: fiyat bantta kald\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon primi toplamay\u0131 hedefleyen, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli opsiyon kombinasyonu) kurulabilir; piyasa karars\u0131z kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece prim (premium: opsiyon i\u00e7in \u00f6denen\/elde edilen fiyat) toplan\u0131r. CBOE Alt\u0131n Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (GVZ: alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) 25 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrediyor; bu da belirsizli\u011fi ve opsiyon primlerinin g\u00f6rece pahal\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda kritik s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma: G\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar ve y\u00fckselen tahvil faizleri XAU\/USD\u2019yi %1,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi risk primi yarat\u0131rken enflasyon\/Fed bask\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; PCE ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz izlemede.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30237","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30237","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30237"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30237\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30237"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30237"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30237"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}