{"id":30227,"date":"2026-03-13T00:02:13","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T00:02:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/usd-cad-abd-dolarinin-guclenmesiyle-yukselirken-abd-iran-catismasi-endiseleriyle-kanada-dolari-geriliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T00:02:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T00:02:13","slug":"usd-cad-abd-dolarinin-guclenmesiyle-yukselirken-abd-iran-catismasi-endiseleriyle-kanada-dolari-geriliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-cad-abd-dolarinin-guclenmesiyle-yukselirken-abd-iran-catismasi-endiseleriyle-kanada-dolari-geriliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/CAD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle y\u00fckselirken, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 endi\u015feleriyle Kanada Dolar\u0131 geriliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Kanada Dolar\u0131, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda hafif geriledi. USD\/CAD paritesi, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3525\u2019e kadar indikten sonra 1,3621 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrerken ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131.\n\nPetrol fiyatlar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda arz\u0131n aksama riskleri nedeniyle y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu. Bu durum normalde Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ham petrol ihra\u00e7 etmesi nedeniyle CAD\u2019i destekleyebilir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n dini lideri Mojtaba Hamaney, bo\u011faz\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131na bask\u0131 uygulamak i\u00e7in bir ara\u00e7 olarak elde tutulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.\n\nABD Dolar\u0131, jeopolitik stres d\u00f6nemlerinde \u201cnakde eri\u015fim\u201d (piyasalarda kolay al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131labilen, g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) talebiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye devam etti. Petrol ABD dolar\u0131yla fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, enerji al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman al\u0131m yapabilmek ad\u0131na daha fazla USD\u2019ye ihtiya\u00e7 duyar.\n\nABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,70 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. DXY, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerinden olu\u015fan bir sepete kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren g\u00f6stergedir. Endeks, Kas\u0131m 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ayr\u0131ca, petrol\u00fcn pahalanmas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu art\u0131rarak faizlerin \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi riski vard\u0131.\n\nABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirim beklentileri zay\u0131flad\u0131. Piyasalar art\u0131k 2026\u2019da 25 baz puanl\u0131k (faizin y\u00fczde 0,25 puan art\u0131r\u0131l\u0131p azalt\u0131lmas\u0131) tek bir indirimi bile tamamen fiyatlam\u0131yor. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) ise 2026 boyunca faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\nABD\u2019de 7 Mart\u2019ta biten haftaya ili\u015fkin \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (ilk kez i\u015fsizlik \u00f6dene\u011fi i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k ba\u015fvurular) 214 binden 213 bine geriledi; 215 bin beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Konut Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 (yap\u0131m\u0131na ba\u015flanan yeni konut say\u0131s\u0131) 1,35 milyon beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 1,487 milyona y\u00fckseldi.\n\nCuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD verileri aras\u0131nda PCE Fiyat Endeksi (Fed\u2019in en \u00e7ok izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinden biri), 4. \u00e7eyrek y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00f6nc\u00fc GSYH (ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc\/b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131), Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri (uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcnlere talebi \u00f6l\u00e7er) ve Michigan \u00dcniversitesi g\u00fcven endeksleri (t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni) yer al\u0131yor. Kanada\u2019da ise istihdam piyasas\u0131 verilerinin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\nABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi, daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131k) olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na artan talep s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in USD\/CAD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam etmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u201cEn olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u201d yukar\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in USD\/CAD\u2019de al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya uzun vadeli i\u015flem (futures: ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) tercih edebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, piyasalarda \u201ckaliteye ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (riskli varl\u0131klardan g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclenlere ge\u00e7i\u015f) e\u011filimine dayan\u0131r.\n\nHam petroldeki y\u00fckseli\u015f\u2014Bat\u0131 Teksas t\u00fcr\u00fc ham petrol\u00fcn (WTI: ABD referans petrol\u00fc) varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 2022 yaz\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131\u2014normalde oldu\u011fu kadar Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklemiyor. 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ilk haftalar\u0131nda da benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama, ilk a\u015famada dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman \u00f6zelli\u011finin g\u00f6lgesinde kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilim t\u0131rmand\u0131k\u00e7a kontrol\u00fcn ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nJeopolitik belirsizlik \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek seyrederken, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) artt\u0131; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in USD\/CAD\u2019de \u201cbull call spread\u201d (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyattan al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek fiyattan al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti azaltan, kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) gibi y\u00f6ntemler de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu strateji, y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc korurken tansiyonun beklenmedik \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde ani ters harekete kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.\n\nMerkez bankalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerdeki ayr\u0131\u015fma da temel tarafta r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 destekliyor. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemlerine g\u00f6re piyasa faiz beklentilerini yeniden fiyatlad\u0131: 2026 sonuna kadar Fed\u2019in faiz indirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131nda %80\u2019in \u00fczerindeyken bug\u00fcn %30\u2019un alt\u0131na geriledi. BoC\u2019nin ise faizi sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc yayg\u0131n. Bu durum, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz avantaj\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\nBu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in temel risk, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kontrols\u00fcz \u015fekilde daha da s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131. B\u00f6yle bir senaryo, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in BoC\u2019yi daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek faiz e\u011filimi) bir \u00e7izgiye itebilir. 2025\u2019teki ge\u00e7ici arz endi\u015fesinde Kanada Dolar\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015f, ard\u0131ndan yeniden riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle BoC\u2019nin mesajlar\u0131nda ton de\u011fi\u015fimi olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimiyle dolar talebi g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken CAD geri \u00e7ekildi: USD\/CAD 1,3621\u2019de. Petrol 115$ \u00fcst\u00fcnde olsa da \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d dolar\u0131 bask\u0131n. Fed indirim beklentisi eriyor; y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30227","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30227","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30227"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30227\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}