{"id":30226,"date":"2026-03-13T00:01:30","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T00:01:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-hurmuz-bogazindaki-gerilim-ve-iran-senaryolari-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-bant-araligini-genisletiyor-ateskes-olasiligi-sinirli-kaliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T00:01:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T00:01:30","slug":"td-securities-hurmuz-bogazindaki-gerilim-ve-iran-senaryolari-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-bant-araligini-genisletiyor-ateskes-olasiligi-sinirli-kaliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-hurmuz-bogazindaki-gerilim-ve-iran-senaryolari-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-bant-araligini-genisletiyor-ateskes-olasiligi-sinirli-kaliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilim ve \u0130ran senaryolar\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletiyor; ate\u015fkes olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"Piyasalar H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ve \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 izliyor. Tahmin piyasalar\u0131 (kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131k al\u0131p satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 platformlar) Mart 2026\u2019ya kadar ate\u015fkes (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n durmas\u0131) ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %30, Nisan 2026\u2019ya kadar ise %40 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nDaha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck aksamaya (arzda b\u00fcy\u00fck kesinti olmamas\u0131) sahip bir senaryoda bile petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 70\u201375 dolara yeniden oturmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu seviye, Brent\u2019in (Kuzey Denizi referans ham petrol\u00fc) bu y\u0131l ortalama 65 dolar olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00f6nceki tahminin \u00fczerinde.\n\n<h3>Petrol Fiyat Senaryolar\u0131 ve Piyasa Fiyatlamas\u0131<\/h3>\n\u00c7at\u0131\u015fma uzarsa petrol 150 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyonu art\u0131rabilir ve Avrupa ile Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilir.\n\nPetrol fiyatlar\u0131nda %10 art\u0131\u015f, 12 ay i\u00e7inde AB\/Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH\u2019sinde (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) %0,1\u20130,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve enflasyonda %0,3\u20130,4 art\u0131\u015fla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. Mevcut durum, arz \u015foku (fiziksel tedarik kesintisi) yerine fiyat \u015foku (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesi) olarak anlat\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nAvrupa\u2019n\u0131n enerji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc; daha fazla LNG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz) ithalat\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek depolama ve gaz kullan\u0131m\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle de\u011fi\u015fti. 2022\u2019deki \u00f6nceki tepki, GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %3\u2019\u00fcne yak\u0131n mali paket (devletin b\u00fct\u00e7e destekleri) i\u00e7ermi\u015fti.\n\nPiyasalar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor; tahmin piyasalar\u0131 Nisan 2026\u2019ya kadar ate\u015fkes ihtimalini yaln\u0131zca %40 verse de. Bu nedenle, Brent i\u00e7in bu y\u0131l varil ba\u015f\u0131na 65 dolar olan \u00f6nceki tahminin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. En iyi senaryoda bile yeni taban 70\u201375 dolar band\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n\nPetrolde belirgin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk (uzayan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada fiyatlar\u0131n 150 dolar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131) mevcut pozisyonlamaya (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n piyasada ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n) tam yans\u0131m\u0131yor. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) verileri, k\u00fcresel ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n (depolardaki petrol miktar\u0131) \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci haftada azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kesinti olmadan bile piyasay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 fiyat \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131, Brent ve WTI (ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc) vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) uygun bir y\u00f6ntem sundu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.\n\n<h3>Enflasyon ve Korunma Stratejisi<\/h3>\nBu fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131 do\u011frudan daha y\u00fcksek enflasyona yans\u0131yacak; \u00f6zellikle Avrupa ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta petroldeki %10 art\u0131\u015f enflasyonu %0,4\u2019e kadar y\u00fckseltebilir. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n \u015eubat 2026 \u00f6nc\u00fc T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi, %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6stererek enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Bu durum, enflasyon swaplar\u0131n\u0131 (taraflar\u0131n enflasyon oran\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 takas etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n tepki vermek zorunda kalmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 bir korunma arac\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.\n\n2022 enerji krizinde, enflasyon kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015f\u0131nca merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvercin (faiz art\u0131rmama e\u011filimi) planlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla b\u0131rak\u0131p agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na gitti\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Avrupa arz \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 eskisine g\u00f6re daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 olsa da, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bu yeni y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kal\u0131rsa Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n planlanan olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerini ertelemesi gerekecek. Faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri (ilerideki faiz seviyesine ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fczerinden daha \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131rma\/gev\u015femeyi geciktirme e\u011filimi) duru\u015fa y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferli g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.\n\nB\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve enflasyonun y\u00fckselmesi, hisse senetleri i\u00e7in zorlu bir ortam yarat\u0131r. Bo\u011faz\u2019dan ge\u00e7en tankerler i\u00e7in gemi sigortas\u0131 primleri (sigorta maliyeti) ge\u00e7en hafta %15 daha s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bu, ekonomide ger\u00e7ek bir s\u00fcrt\u00fcnmeye i\u015faret ediyor. K\u0131sa vadede, ba\u015fl\u0131ca Avrupa endekslerinde koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan hak) almay\u0131 veya oynakl\u0131\u011fa (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) maruziyeti art\u0131rmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek ihtiyatl\u0131 olabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski masada: Tahmin piyasalar\u0131 ate\u015fkese Mart 2026\u2019ya %30, Nisan\u2019a %40 diyor. Brent\u2019te yeni taban 70\u201375 dolar; uzarsa 150+ m\u00fcmk\u00fcn, enflasyon-faiz bask\u0131s\u0131 artar, opsiyon\/swapla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30226","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30226","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30226"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30226\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30226"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30226"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30226"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}