{"id":30225,"date":"2026-03-12T22:03:30","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T22:03:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/risk-endiseleri-rbanin-sikilasmaya-devam-edecegi-beklentilerine-ragmen-abd-dolarini-desteklerken-aud-usd-geriliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T22:03:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T22:03:30","slug":"risk-endiseleri-rbanin-sikilasmaya-devam-edecegi-beklentilerine-ragmen-abd-dolarini-desteklerken-aud-usd-geriliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/risk-endiseleri-rbanin-sikilasmaya-devam-edecegi-beklentilerine-ragmen-abd-dolarini-desteklerken-aud-usd-geriliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Risk endi\u015feleri, RBA\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya devam edece\u011fi beklentilerine ra\u011fmen ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklerken AUD\/USD geriliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,7095 seviyesine gerileyerek g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,83 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Parite \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,7185\u2019e yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve Haziran 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\n\nD\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, piyasalarda temkinli havan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na yeniden talep gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fand\u0131. \u0130ran, \u0130srail ve ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerini i\u00e7eren gerilimler yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131na neden oldu.\n\n<h3>Petrol Fiyatlar\u0131 ve Risk \u0130\u015ftah\u0131<\/h3>\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan petrol sevkiyat\u0131 (petrol ta\u015f\u0131yan gemilerin ge\u00e7i\u015fi) konusunda endi\u015feler enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itti. Bu durum enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 canland\u0131rd\u0131, ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerini (tahvilden elde edilen faiz oran\u0131) destekledi ve g\u00fcvenli liman (risk art\u0131nca tercih edilen varl\u0131k) talebiyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na g\u00fc\u00e7 verdi.\n\nABD verileri de dolar\u0131 destekledi. Haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 215 bin beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 213 bin geldi. Konut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 (in\u015fas\u0131na ba\u015flanan yeni konut say\u0131s\u0131) 1,487 milyonla tahminlerin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.\n\nAvustralya\u2019da ise faiz beklentileri Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyebilir. Piyasalar 17 Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) 25 baz puanl\u0131k (faizde 0,25 puan) art\u0131\u015f yapma ihtimalini giderek daha fazla fiyatl\u0131yor.\n\nTD Securities, May\u0131s\u2019a kadar iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor; bu da politika faizini (Cash Rate \u2013 RBA\u2019n\u0131n ana faiz oran\u0131) %4,35\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Avustralya ile ABD aras\u0131nda farkl\u0131 bir faiz yolu izlenmesi, AUD\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn derinle\u015fmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.\n\n<h3>Yak\u0131n D\u00f6nem Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131<\/h3>\n2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki de\u011ferlendirmeye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 ile \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 e\u011filimli) RBA aras\u0131nda bir \u00e7eki\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Piyasa o d\u00f6nemde RBA faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru bi\u00e7imde fiyatlam\u0131\u015f, bu da Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir taban olu\u015fturmu\u015ftu. Bug\u00fcn ise AUD\/USD\u2019nin \u00e7ok daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da, 0,6650 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir tabloda dengeler tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc.\n\nRBA politika faizini 2025 ortas\u0131na kadar %4,35\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Ancak sonras\u0131nda ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm belirgin \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fti. Yava\u015flayan ekonomiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 kez faiz indirimi yap\u0131ld\u0131 ve politika faizi mevcut %3,60 seviyesine \u00e7ekildi. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7eyreklik GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi (ekonominin \u00fc\u00e7 ayda b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131) %0,2\u2019ye kadar yava\u015flad\u0131. Bu da piyasada RBA\u2019n\u0131n bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011fil, yeni bir indirim olma ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) duru\u015funu koruyor. \u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %2,8 ile \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek seyrediyor ve Fed\u2019in hedefinin \u00fcst\u00fcnde. Ge\u00e7en haftaki tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde i\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131) verisinin 225 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesi, k\u0131sa vadede faiz indirimi beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlerde hareket etmesi) art\u0131k belirgin \u015fekilde ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine; 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki tablonun tam tersi.\n\nJeopolitik riskler yeniden ana ba\u015fl\u0131k haline geldi ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 endi\u015feleri hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Brent petrol\u00fcn yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve Cboe Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VIX \u2013 piyasadaki korku g\u00f6stergesi) 17\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesiyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na g\u00fcvenli liman talebi art\u0131yor. Bu riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) e\u011filimi, Avustralya Dolar\u0131 gibi risk hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek para birimlerine bask\u0131 yap\u0131yor.\n\nBu ortamda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten yararlanmak i\u00e7in AUD\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) de\u011ferlendirebilir. Nisan sonu vadeli, 0,6500 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike \u2013 opsiyonun i\u015fleyece\u011fi hedef fiyat) civar\u0131ndaki opsiyonlar; politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. Bu stratejide risk, \u00f6denen primle (opsiyonu almak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine (ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131 momentumu) maruz kalma sa\u011flar.\n\nAncak emtia fiyatlar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. 2025\u2019teki riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6neminde daha az \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bu unsur bu kez etkili olabilir. Demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131 diren\u00e7li kald\u0131 ve son d\u00f6nemde ton ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n ana ihracat kaleminde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f, Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019na beklenmedik destek verebilir ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlara kar\u015f\u0131 dengeleyici bir unsur olu\u015fturabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f sertle\u015fti: AUD\/USD 0,7095\u2019e inerek %0,83 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 petrol ve enflasyon endi\u015fesi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. RBA-Fed politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 USD lehine; put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30225","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30225"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30225\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30225"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30225"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30225"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}