{"id":30214,"date":"2026-03-12T20:01:45","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T20:01:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobanktan-jane-foley-aud-jpy-1990dan-bu-yana-en-yuksek-seviyeyi-gordu-politika-risk-istahi-ve-faiz-artislari-belirleyici-oluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T20:01:45","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T20:01:45","slug":"rabobanktan-jane-foley-aud-jpy-1990dan-bu-yana-en-yuksek-seviyeyi-gordu-politika-risk-istahi-ve-faiz-artislari-belirleyici-oluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobanktan-jane-foley-aud-jpy-1990dan-bu-yana-en-yuksek-seviyeyi-gordu-politika-risk-istahi-ve-faiz-artislari-belirleyici-oluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank\u2019tan Jane Foley: AUD\/JPY 1990\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; politika, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 belirleyici oluyor"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/JPY, 1990\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hareket, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n **net enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131** (yani \u00fcretti\u011finden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131 satan \u00fclke) olmas\u0131 ve piyasan\u0131n **RBA\u2019n\u0131n (Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fini** fiyatlamas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. Art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, **en erken gelecek hafta** gelebilece\u011fi beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\nParite, **Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ)** politikas\u0131na dair beklentilerin g\u00f6rece sabit kalmas\u0131yla da destek buldu. Mevcut fiyatlamaya g\u00f6re RBA dahil bir\u00e7ok merkez bankas\u0131nda **faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7ekilmesi** ihtimali konu\u015fuluyor.\n\n

Carry Trade \u0130\u00e7in Ba\u015fl\u0131ca Riskler<\/h3>\nG\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde, jeopolitik gerilimlerin uzamas\u0131 ve piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 gibi riskler var. **Carry trade** (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma stratejisi) **riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f** d\u00f6nemlerinde h\u0131zla \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclebilir ve sert geri \u00e7ekilmeler g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\n\nKrizin uzamas\u0131 ve enflasyon riskleri nedeniyle daha fazla merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n **\u015fahin** (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n) bir tutum benimsemesi halinde yen de\u011fer kazanabilir. Bu durum; piyasada **likiditenin** (al\u0131m-sat\u0131m kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131) azalmas\u0131, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve Japonya i\u00e7indeki tasarruflar\u0131n yeniden \u00fclkeye d\u00f6nmesiyle desteklenebilir.\n\nGelecek haftaki politika toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n AUD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n \u00fczerinde belirleyici olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen gerilimler, mevcut seviyelerden ek y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.\n\nAUD\/JPY, para politikas\u0131 fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla onlarca y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinde. Son veriler, Avustralya\u2019da enflasyonun \u015fubatta %3,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun gelecek hafta RBA\u2019dan **faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131** beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6te yandan Japonya\u2019da enflasyon %1,9\u2019a gerileyerek BoJ\u2019un **g\u00fcvercin** (faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmaya yatk\u0131n) \u00e7izgisini peki\u015ftirdi.\n\n

\u0130\u015flem Etkileri ve Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\nAvustralya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olmas\u0131 AUD i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Son jeopolitik gerilimler, **s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz (LNG) vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131n\u0131** (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) bu ay %8 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu da para biriminin cazibesini art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu enerji hik\u00e2yesi ve piyasan\u0131n RBA\u2019dan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %80\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131, y\u00fckseli\u015fi besliyor.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131n ayn\u0131 gerilimler piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in temkinli olmak gerekiyor. **VIX endeksi** (piyasadaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131, yani dalgalanma beklentisini g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku g\u00f6stergesi\u201d) son iki haftada %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi; bu, riskli varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in klasik bir uyar\u0131 sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f derinle\u015firse yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli limanlara y\u00f6nelmesiyle Japon yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir.\n\n**T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn** (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131, \u00f6rne\u011fin opsiyon gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tablo, kontroll\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. RBA\u2019dan s\u00fcrpriz bir ad\u0131m gelmesi halinde y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in **al\u0131m opsiyonu (call)** d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; ancak olas\u0131 ani d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 **sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put)** ile korunma \u00f6nem kazan\u0131r. Y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k, carry trade\u2019in \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi riskini y\u00f6netmekte **opsiyonlar\u0131** daha i\u015flevsel k\u0131lar.\n\n2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi, ko\u015fullar\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Benzer bir k\u00fcresel riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6neminde AUD\/JPY birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %5 sert d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu da piyasa korkuya d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde carry trade i\u015flemlerinin h\u0131zla etkisini kaybedebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AUD\/JPY 1990\u2019dan beri zirvede: enerji ihracat\u0131 ve RBA\u2019da olas\u0131 erken faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 (%80) AUD\u2019yi destekliyor. Ancak y\u00fckselen VIX ve jeopolitik riskler carry trade\u2019i bozup yen lehine sert d\u00fczeltme getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t