{"id":30213,"date":"2026-03-12T19:04:33","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T19:04:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/nomura-ecbnin-mevduat-faizini-200de-sabit-tutmasini-ve-iran-kaynakli-enflasyon-soklarina-tepki-vermekten-kacinmasini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T19:04:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T19:04:33","slug":"nomura-ecbnin-mevduat-faizini-200de-sabit-tutmasini-ve-iran-kaynakli-enflasyon-soklarina-tepki-vermekten-kacinmasini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/nomura-ecbnin-mevduat-faizini-200de-sabit-tutmasini-ve-iran-kaynakli-enflasyon-soklarina-tepki-vermekten-kacinmasini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Nomura, ECB\u2019nin mevduat faizini %2,00\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon \u015foklar\u0131na tepki vermekten ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Nomura, \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ra\u011fmen ECB\u2019nin 19 Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131nda mevduat faizini (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 fazla paraya uygulanan faiz) %2,00\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Kurum, Y\u00f6netim Konseyi\u2019nin (ECB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131 karar organ\u0131) reel ekonomi (b\u00fcy\u00fcme, istihdam, t\u00fcketim gibi ger\u00e7ek faaliyetler) ve enflasyon beklentileri (hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin gelecekteki fiyat art\u0131\u015f tahminleri) \u00fczerindeki etkileri g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in daha net kan\u0131t bekleyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nNomura, Mart 2026 i\u00e7in HICP enflasyonunun (AB uyumlu t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin resmi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) aksi durumda olaca\u011f\u0131ndan 0,5\u20130,7 puan daha y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Mart 2026 tahminini 0,6 puan art\u0131rarak y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,5\u2019e y\u00fckseltti.\n\n<h3>ECB Faiz G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\nKurum, ECB\u2019nin Nisan\u2019da da beklemede kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Nomura\u2019ya g\u00f6re ECB, tahmin ufkunun sonunda (2028\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011fi) enflasyonun hedef civar\u0131nda dengelenece\u011fine i\u015faret etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir.\n\nNomura, ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rmadan \u00f6nce kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon (ge\u00e7ici de\u011fil, uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalan fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) ya da daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon beklentilerine dair kan\u0131t g\u00f6rmek isteyece\u011fini belirtiyor. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma son zirvesinin \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7ip k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmezse, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in en erken uygun tarihin Haziran olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.\n\nECB\u2019nin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya yan\u0131t olarak faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde Nomura iki art\u0131\u015f bekliyor.\n\n19 Mart\u2019taki ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken, %2,00 mevduat faizinde de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklenmiyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki (k\u00fcresel petrol sevkiyat\u0131nda kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) ge\u00e7en haftaki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 sarst\u0131; ancak merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ek etkiyi \u00f6l\u00e7mek isteyece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (gelecekte teslimat i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyatlanan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) d\u00fcn 95 dolar\/varil \u00fczerinde kapanmas\u0131 ve bunun 2025 sonundan beri ilk kez g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi ECB\u2019nin g\u00fcndeminde olacak.\n\n<h3>Haziran Toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131k\u0131yor<\/h3>\nBa\u015fkan Lagarde\u2019\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na mesafeli, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi g\u00f6zeten) bir ton kullanmas\u0131 ve enflasyonun 2028\u2019e kadar dengelenece\u011fini vurgulamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak 2022\u2019deki enerji krizinin tekrar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in daha sonra ad\u0131m atmaya haz\u0131r olundu\u011funu ima eden \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) bir mesaj da vermek isteyebilir. Bu iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc ileti\u015fim, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131) art\u0131\u015f riskine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nPiyasan\u0131n fiyatlamas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan as\u0131l odak Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na kay\u0131yor; bu toplant\u0131 art\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk ger\u00e7ek f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durum piyasaya da yans\u0131yor: 5y5y enflasyon swap oran\u0131 (5 y\u0131l sonra ba\u015flayacak 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in enflasyon beklentisini yans\u0131tan t\u00fcrev g\u00f6sterge) bu hafta %2,40\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret eden yeni enflasyon verileri, yaz aylar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.\n\nBu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrekte daha y\u00fcksek faize haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmas\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir; bunu vadeli faiz anla\u015fmalar\u0131 (FRA; gelecekteki bir d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcnden sabitleyen s\u00f6zle\u015fme) gibi ara\u00e7larla de\u011ferlendirebilirler. Belirsizlik nedeniyle, faizlerin sert y\u00fckseli\u015fine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyonlar (belirli bir fiyattan i\u015flem yapma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) da tercih edilebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin faiz tavan\u0131 (interest rate cap; faiz belirli seviyenin \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131karsa \u00f6deme sa\u011flayan koruma) veya payer swaption (ileride \u201cfaiz \u00f6deyen\u201d swap yapma hakk\u0131; faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma). Bu ortam, 2025 sonundaki daha sakin faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnden belirgin \u015fekilde farkl\u0131.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Petrol \u015foku ECB\u2019yi k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r m\u0131? Nomura, 19 Mart\u2019ta mevduat faizinin %2,00\u2019de kalmas\u0131n\u0131, Nisan\u2019da da beklemeyi; kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon kan\u0131t\u0131yla en erken Haziran\u2019da art\u0131\u015f\u0131, gerekirse iki hamleyi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30213","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30213","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30213"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30213\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30213"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30213"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30213"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}