{"id":30206,"date":"2026-03-12T18:01:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T18:01:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-15890-civarinda-yillik-zirvelere-yakin-seyrediyor-jeopolitik-gerilimler-ve-fed-politikasi-endiseleri-gundemde\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T18:01:59","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T18:01:59","slug":"usd-jpy-15890-civarinda-yillik-zirvelere-yakin-seyrediyor-jeopolitik-gerilimler-ve-fed-politikasi-endiseleri-gundemde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-15890-civarinda-yillik-zirvelere-yakin-seyrediyor-jeopolitik-gerilimler-ve-fed-politikasi-endiseleri-gundemde\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY 158,90 civar\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere yak\u0131n seyrediyor; jeopolitik gerilimler ve Fed politikas\u0131 endi\u015feleri g\u00fcndemde"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 158,90 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde fazla de\u011fi\u015fmedi. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n gev\u015fek duru\u015ftan (faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutan, ekonomiyi destekleyen para politikas\u0131) yava\u015f yava\u015f uzakla\u015fabilece\u011fi beklentisiyle y\u0131l\u0131n zirvelerine yak\u0131n kald\u0131.\n\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130ran, sava\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu yana en yo\u011fun operasyonunu ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ni Umman Denizi\u2019ne ba\u011flayan, petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kilit rota) ge\u00e7i\u015fi aksatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.\n\n<h3>ABD Enflasyon Verisi ve Fed G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n\u0130srail Savunma Kuvvetleri, Hizbullah altyap\u0131s\u0131na (askeri ve lojistik tesisler) y\u00f6nelik geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 dalgas\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. \u0130ran, ABD, \u0130srail veya b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerini kapsayan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir t\u0131rmanma, Japon yenine talebi art\u0131rabilir ve USD\/JPY \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.\n\nABD\u2019de \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerde T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlardaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) \u015fubatta ayl\u0131k %0,3 artt\u0131; \u00f6nceki %0,2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde ve beklentiyle uyumlu geldi. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) ayl\u0131k %0,2 artarak \u00f6nceki %0,3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na indi; bu da tahminlerle uyumlu oldu.\n\nPiyasalar, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) 18 Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesini bekliyor. Dikkat, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda man\u015fet enflasyonu (genel enflasyon) yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilecek y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131na da kayd\u0131.\n\nDBS, USD\/JPY\u2019nin 159\u2013160 b\u00f6lgesindeki direnci (y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131) test etti\u011fini ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 19 Mart\u2019ta toplanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. MUFG ise y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini (ihracat-ithalat fark\u0131) bozdu\u011funu ve yak\u0131n vadede d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi (kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasaya al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapmas\u0131) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.\n\n<h3>Kritik Merkez Bankas\u0131 Toplant\u0131lar\u0131na Giderken Dalgalanma Beklentisi<\/h3>\nUSD\/JPY\u2019nin kritik 159-160 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesini test etmesiyle, piyasada dalgalanman\u0131n (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131. Gelecek hafta 18 Mart (Fed) ve 19 Mart (BoJ: Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131) toplant\u0131lar\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n izledi\u011fi ana tetikleyiciler. K\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131 (opsiyon: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131) \u015fimdiden artan \u201cprimlere\u201d (opsiyon maliyeti) i\u015faret ediyor; bu da piyasada sert bir hareket beklendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nOrta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik risk, burada \u00f6nemli bir unsur olan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Brent petrol (k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak be\u015f ay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu durum enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Gerilim, g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinde daha \u201cg\u00fcvenli\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara ge\u00e7i\u015f) tetikleyebilir; bu da JPY\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip paritede sert bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye yol a\u00e7abilir.\n\n\u00d6te yandan ABD dolar\u0131, \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d enflasyon verileriyle destek bulmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Son veriler \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,7 seviyesinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi sinyali vermemesi i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e olu\u015fturuyor. Dolardaki bu temel g\u00fc\u00e7, USD\/JPY i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan destek) yarat\u0131yor ve yeni bir tetikleyici olmadan kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\nJaponya\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale duru\u015fu da (kur a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynarsa piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etme yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yetkililerin 2025\u2019te bu seviyelere yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken sert s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar (\u201cs\u00f6zl\u00fc m\u00fcdahale\u201d: do\u011frudan i\u015flem yapmadan y\u00f6nlendirme ama\u00e7l\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar) yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131, ancak sonunda rezerv harcayarak m\u00fcdahaleye gitmedi\u011fi hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki hareketsizlik, enerji ithalat maliyetlerinin olumsuz etkilerini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in \u015fimdilik daha zay\u0131f yeni (kurun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetmesi) tolere edilebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nPiyasadaki \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f\u201d yap\u0131 (uzun s\u00fcre dar aral\u0131kta kal\u0131p birikmi\u015f hareket potansiyeli) nedeniyle, dalgalanma \u00fczerine pozisyon almak mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin toplant\u0131lardan sonra vadesi dolan opsiyonlarla \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) gibi stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ister 160 \u00fczerine k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m (fiyat\u0131n direnci a\u015f\u0131p y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi) ister a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert reddedilme (diren\u00e7ten d\u00f6n\u00fcp h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) olsun, iki y\u00f6nde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fiyat hareketinden faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/JPY 158,90\u2019da yatay seyrederken 159-160 direnci g\u00fcndemde. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi petrol\u00fc 91 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131rken, Fed-BoJ toplant\u0131lar\u0131 volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir; g\u00fcvenli liman talebi yene destek verebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30206","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30206","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30206"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30206\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30206"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30206"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30206"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}