{"id":30199,"date":"2026-03-12T16:03:33","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T16:03:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abdde-dort-haftalik-ortalama-ilk-issizlik-maasi-basvurulari-mart-basinda-215-binlik-beklentinin-altinda-kalarak-212-bine-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T16:03:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T16:03:33","slug":"abdde-dort-haftalik-ortalama-ilk-issizlik-maasi-basvurulari-mart-basinda-215-binlik-beklentinin-altinda-kalarak-212-bine-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abdde-dort-haftalik-ortalama-ilk-issizlik-maasi-basvurulari-mart-basinda-215-binlik-beklentinin-altinda-kalarak-212-bine-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019de d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalama ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 mart ba\u015f\u0131nda 215 binlik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalarak 212 bine geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019de ilk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131, 6 Mart\u2019ta sona eren haftada 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamada 212 bin oldu. Bu seviye, 215 binlik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.\n\n6 Mart 2025 tarihli i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verisine, \u00f6nemli bir tarihsel g\u00f6sterge olarak geri d\u00f6nmek gerekiyor. 4 haftal\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n 212 bin gelmesi, o d\u00f6nemde beklenenden \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyordu. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz politikas\u0131nda \u201cpivot\u201du (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faiz indirimine d\u00f6nme beklentisi) 2025 boyunca geciktirdi.\n\n<h3>\u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131ndan Tarihsel Sinyal<\/h3>\nBug\u00fcne, 12 Mart 2026\u2019ya geldi\u011fimizde benzer bir tablo olu\u015fuyor. Ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n \u201cContinuing Claims\u201d verisi (i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 almaya devam edenlerin say\u0131s\u0131) 1,91 milyon ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131. En son \u015fubat ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; enflasyonun temel g\u00f6stergesi) ise y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 ile %3,2 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. Bu durum, enflasyonun \u201csticky\u201d (kal\u0131c\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc zor) oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nEkonomideki bu kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7, Fed\u2019in i\u015fini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Piyasa, bu y\u0131l olas\u0131 bir \u201ceasing cycle\u201d\u0131n (gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc; faiz indirimlerinin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem) zamanlamas\u0131 ve boyutu konusunda fazla iyimser olabilir. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda karar al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n \u201chigher-for-longer\u201d (faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 beklenebilir.\n\nYat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate; ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 repo i\u015flemlerine dayal\u0131 referans faiz) vadeli i\u015flemleri gibi faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda \u201cput\u201d (sat\u0131m opsiyonu; fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu pozisyon, piyasan\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in bekledi\u011fi 1-2 faiz indirimini fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Bu opsiyonlar\u0131n maliyeti, olas\u0131 fiyat hareketine k\u0131yasla h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.\n\nBu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, hisse endekslerinde daha savunmac\u0131 bir duru\u015fu da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. SPDR S&#038;P 500 ETF (SPY; S&#038;P 500 endeksini takip eden borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) \u00fczerinde may\u0131s vadeli \u201cput spread\u201d (sat\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in bir sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir sat\u0131m opsiyonu satma stratejisi) almak, faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fiyle piyasada ya\u015fanabilecek geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir. Bu strateji, hem ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini hem de azami zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar.\n\nSon olarak, ekonomik veriler ile piyasa beklentileri aras\u0131ndaki uyumsuzluk, piyasada \u201cchoppiness\u201di (dalgal\u0131, y\u00f6ns\u00fcz sert fiyat hareketleri) art\u0131rabilir. 30-45 g\u00fcn vadeli VIX (CBOE Volatilite Endeksi; S&#038;P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) \u00fczerinde \u201ccall\u201d (al\u0131m opsiyonu; fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) al\u0131nmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. B\u00f6yle bir i\u015flem, piyasan\u0131n Fed beklentilerini yeniden fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde belirsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131yla VIX\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek s\u0131\u00e7ramadan faydalanabilir.\n\n<h3>Faizlerin Uzun S\u00fcre Y\u00fcksek Kalmas\u0131na G\u00f6re Pozisyon Alma<\/h3>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S\u00fcrpriz i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon, Fed\u2019in \u201cpivot\u201dunu yine \u00f6teler mi? Piyasa erken gev\u015femeyi fiyatl\u0131yor; higher-for-longer riski art\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar SOFR ve SPY put\u2019lar\u0131, VIX call\u2019lar\u0131yla korunabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30199","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30199","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30199"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30199\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30199"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30199"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30199"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}