{"id":30187,"date":"2026-03-12T14:03:51","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T14:03:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/brzeski-orta-dogudaki-savasin-petrol-fiyatlarina-iliskin-endiseleri-artirmasiyla-ecbnin-mart-ayinda-faizleri-sabit-tutmasini-ancak-sahin-bir-ton-benimsemesini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T14:03:51","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T14:03:51","slug":"brzeski-orta-dogudaki-savasin-petrol-fiyatlarina-iliskin-endiseleri-artirmasiyla-ecbnin-mart-ayinda-faizleri-sabit-tutmasini-ancak-sahin-bir-ton-benimsemesini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/brzeski-orta-dogudaki-savasin-petrol-fiyatlarina-iliskin-endiseleri-artirmasiyla-ecbnin-mart-ayinda-faizleri-sabit-tutmasini-ancak-sahin-bir-ton-benimsemesini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Brzeski, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri art\u0131rmas\u0131yla ECB\u2019nin Mart ay\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131, ancak \u015fahin bir ton benimsemesini bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"ING, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) 19 Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131, ancak enflasyon risklerine ili\u015fkin daha sert bir dil kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Kurum, bu de\u011fi\u015fimi Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu tablo, 2022\u2019deki enerji \u015fokunu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.\n\nG\u00fcndemin, faiz indirimi s\u00f6yleminden uzakla\u015f\u0131p enflasyon riskleri ve enflasyon beklentilerine (hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin gelecekte fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesi; bu beklenti fiyat ve \u00fccret kararlar\u0131n\u0131 etkiler) kaymas\u0131 bekleniyor. ING\u2019ye g\u00f6re, enflasyonun tahminlerin alt\u0131na inmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k toplant\u0131n\u0131n ana konular\u0131ndan biri olmayabilir.\n\n

Oil Prices And Inflation Risks<\/h3> \nING, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n zaten y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve piyasadaki yeni hareketlerin ECB\u2019nin son tahminlerini a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra eski hale getirmi\u015f olabilece\u011fini belirtiyor. ECB\u2019nin, petrol fiyat\u0131na dair farkl\u0131 senaryolarla (farkl\u0131 fiyat d\u00fczeylerine g\u00f6re enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme etkisini \u00f6l\u00e7en alternatif varsay\u0131mlar) \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 muhtemel.\n\nING, \u00fccret\u2011fiyat sarmal\u0131 riskinin (\u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n maliyetleri y\u00fckseltip fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131, fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n da yeni \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesi) \u015fu anda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Kurum ayr\u0131ca, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki (d\u00fcnya petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f) aksaman\u0131n uzamas\u0131 halinde petrol\u00fcn birka\u00e7 ay boyunca varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini; bunun da ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k, g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 ve tedarik zincirleri (\u00fcr\u00fcnlerin \u00fcretimden t\u00fcketiciye kadar uzanan lojistik a\u011f\u0131) \u00fczerinde zincirleme etkiler yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekliyor.\n\nBu durumda ING, ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 (faizleri y\u00fckseltmek; kredi maliyetini art\u0131r\u0131p talebi so\u011futarak enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi ama\u00e7lar) de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fini, bunun bir ya da iki ad\u0131m olabilece\u011fini belirtiyor. ING, ECB\u2019nin beklentileri \u201c\u00e7apalamak\u201d i\u00e7in (piyasay\u0131 enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak y\u00fckselmeyece\u011fine ikna etmek) ileti\u015fimi kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor ve Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n \u201cgood place\u201d ifadesini tekrarlamas\u0131n\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor.\n\nMart 2025\u2019te Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ECB\u2019den ani bir \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha sert, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n duru\u015f) de\u011fi\u015fime yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ayn\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Petrol \u015foku riski faiz indirimi ihtimalini g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f, oda\u011f\u0131 yeniden enflasyona \u00e7evirmi\u015fti. Bu deneyim, bug\u00fcn olu\u015fan tablo i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir referans niteli\u011finde.\n\n

Implications For Rate Volatility<\/h3> \nBenzer bir dinamik, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki gerilimin kritik deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131n\u0131 aksatmas\u0131yla ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; bu da petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itiyor. Brent petrol son bir ayda %12\u2019den fazla y\u00fckseldi; varil fiyat\u0131 87 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve psikolojik \u00f6neme sahip 90 dolar seviyesini (piyasan\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi e\u015fik) a\u015fma riski ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu art\u0131\u015f, piyasalar\u0131n birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nce bekledi\u011finden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor.\n\nBu enerji kaynakl\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131, hassas bir d\u00f6neme denk geliyor. \u015eubat ay\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,6 ile \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d (kolay gerilemeyen) seyre i\u015faret ederek ECB\u2019nin %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. 2022 enerji krizinin \u00fccret\u2011fiyat sarmal\u0131na nas\u0131l zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131rken, ECB\u2019nin benzer bir s\u00fcreci tekrarlamak istemedi\u011fi vurgulan\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, yeni faiz indirimleri tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n rafa kalkmas\u0131 olas\u0131.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in (dayanak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n fiyat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6r. vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon) bu, EUR faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Piyasa bu y\u0131l d\u00fczenli faiz indirimi patikas\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon alm\u0131\u015f olabilir; bu da ani bir duraklama ya da ters y\u00f6nde hareketten faydalanacak opsiyonlar (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. Yakla\u015fan ECB bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131, fiyatlaman\u0131n yeniden \u015fekillenmesi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir tetikleyici olabilir.\n\nOdak, Euribor vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki k\u0131sa vadeli faiz opsiyonlar\u0131 gibi enstr\u00fcmanlarda olmal\u0131. Biz, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131ndan ve k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentilerindeki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn durmas\u0131ndan faydalanan pozisyonlar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon beklentilerini \u201c\u00e7apalamak\u201d i\u00e7in \u015fahin bir dil kullanmak zorunda kalmas\u0131 riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge; olumsuz senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131 maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlama) sa\u011flar.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrol \u015foku geri mi d\u00f6n\u00fcyor? ING, ECB\u2019nin 19 Mart\u2019ta faizi sabit tutup Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve y\u00fckselen Brent nedeniyle daha \u015fahinle\u015fmesini, indirim s\u00f6yleminin rafa kalkmas\u0131n\u0131; oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30187","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30187"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30187\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30187"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30187"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}