{"id":30185,"date":"2026-03-12T12:05:18","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T12:05:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-rbanin-faizleri-iki-kez-artirarak-politika-faizini-yeniden-435e-cikarmasini-bekliyor-bu-da-avustralya-dolarini-aud-destekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T12:05:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T12:05:18","slug":"td-securities-rbanin-faizleri-iki-kez-artirarak-politika-faizini-yeniden-435e-cikarmasini-bekliyor-bu-da-avustralya-dolarini-aud-destekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-rbanin-faizleri-iki-kez-artirarak-politika-faizini-yeniden-435e-cikarmasini-bekliyor-bu-da-avustralya-dolarini-aud-destekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities, RBA&#8217;n\u0131n faizleri iki kez art\u0131rarak politika faizini yeniden %4,35&#8217;e \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; bu da Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 (AUD) destekliyor."},"content":{"rendered":"TD Securities, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) martta politika faizini (nakit faiz\/cash rate) 25 baz puan ve may\u0131sta bir 25 baz puan daha art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. (Baz puan: Faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim.) B\u00f6ylece ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki indirimler geri al\u0131nacak ve politika faizi may\u0131sta yeniden %4,35\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kacak.\n\nGerek\u00e7e olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin (GSYH) ekonominin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretmesi, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve enflasyon risklerinin artmas\u0131 g\u00f6steriliyor. Para politikas\u0131n\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, i\u015fsizlikten ziyade enflasyon beklentilerine (hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin gelecekteki fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahminleri) kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.\n\n<h3>Avustralya\u2019da Talep Sinyalleri G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc<\/h3>\nS&#038;P Global\u2019in Bile\u015fik Yeni Sipari\u015fler verileri, Avustralya\u2019da yeni sipari\u015flerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; endeksin 50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor. (50 e\u015fi\u011fi: 50 \u00fcst\u00fc geni\u015fleme, 50 alt\u0131 daralma.) Ayr\u0131ca geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda en y\u00fcksek seviyede oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor. NAB\u2019\u0131n \u015fubat ay\u0131 \u0130\u015f D\u00fcnyas\u0131 Anketi\u2019nde ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck sipari\u015flerin (gelecek d\u00f6nem beklenen sipari\u015fler) 2022 sonundan bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nYaz\u0131da ekonomide \u201cbo\u015f kapasitenin\u201d (\u00fcretim ve istihdam\u0131n, enflasyon yaratmadan art\u0131r\u0131labilecek k\u0131sm\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa ve NAIRU tahminlerinin (enflasyonu h\u0131zland\u0131rmadan g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131) \u00e7ok farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor. Hazine i\u00e7in %4,25 seviyesi an\u0131l\u0131rken, RBA\u2019n\u0131n Ekonomi Mevzuat\u0131 Komitesi\u2019ne verdi\u011fi ifadede %4,6 referans al\u0131n\u0131yor.\n\nAyr\u0131ca yurt i\u00e7i verilerdeki geli\u015fmelerin ve \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 risklerin enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc etkileyebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Son verilerin enflasyon taraf\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sinyaller verdi\u011fi ve ekonomide bo\u015f kapasitenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.\n\n<h3>Faiz Volatilitesi ve Kur (FX) A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u0130\u015flem Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/h3>\nAvustralya ekonomisi yeniden \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nma\u201d (talebin arz\u0131 zorlamas\u0131 ve fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131 yaratmas\u0131) i\u015faretleri veriyor. Mart ay\u0131 Judo Bank \u00f6nc\u00fc (flash) Bile\u015fik PMI 52,4 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi; bu, faaliyet ve sipari\u015flerde art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. (PMI: Sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme.) \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 da s\u0131k\u0131; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 son veride %3,9 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede.\n\nBu tablo, enflasyon sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yor. Son \u00e7eyreklik T\u00dcFE %3,8 ile beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelerek h\u0131zlanmaya i\u015faret etti ve RBA\u2019n\u0131n %2-3 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Bu veri, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 emebilecek bo\u015f alan\u0131n \u00e7ok az oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, piyasan\u0131n mevcut %4,35 seviyesinden ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riskini yeterince fiyatlam\u0131yor olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz swap\u0131nda sabit faiz \u00f6demek (swap: de\u011fi\u015fken faize kar\u015f\u0131 sabit faizin takas\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu pozisyon, RBA\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in bu y\u0131l bir ya da iki kez daha faiz art\u0131rmak zorunda kalmas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.\n\nOpsiyon piyasas\u0131nda belirsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek volatiliteye (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131) i\u015faret ediyor. Avustralya 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zararla y\u00fckselen faizlere (tahvil getirilerinin artmas\u0131) pozisyon alma yolu sunar. Bu strateji, RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha \u015fahin (enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f) bir tona kaymas\u0131ndan faydalan\u0131r.\n\nBu ortam, di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 faiz indirimlerini konu\u015furken Avustralya dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in de destekleyici olabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir para birimine pozisyon almak i\u00e7in AUD\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. (Faiz fark\u0131: iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131.) Avustralya ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, bu i\u015flemi cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S\u00fcrpriz kap\u0131da: TD Securities, RBA\u2019n\u0131n mart ve may\u0131sta 25\u2019er baz puan faiz art\u0131r\u0131p oran\u0131 %4,35\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep, s\u0131k\u0131 istihdam, y\u00fckselen enflasyon AUD\u2019yi destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30185"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30185\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}