{"id":30183,"date":"2026-03-12T12:03:54","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T12:03:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/uob-stratejistleri-yukselen-abd-tahvil-getirilerinin-destegiyle-usd-jpynin-15945-16000-bandini-test-etmesini-bekliyor-ancak-asiri-alim-kosullari-daha-fazla-yukselisi-sinirliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T12:03:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T12:03:54","slug":"uob-stratejistleri-yukselen-abd-tahvil-getirilerinin-destegiyle-usd-jpynin-15945-16000-bandini-test-etmesini-bekliyor-ancak-asiri-alim-kosullari-daha-fazla-yukselisi-sinirliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/uob-stratejistleri-yukselen-abd-tahvil-getirilerinin-destegiyle-usd-jpynin-15945-16000-bandini-test-etmesini-bekliyor-ancak-asiri-alim-kosullari-daha-fazla-yukselisi-sinirliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"UOB stratejistleri, y\u00fckselen ABD tahvil getirilerinin deste\u011fiyle USD\/JPY\u2019nin 159,45\u2013160,00 band\u0131n\u0131 test etmesini bekliyor; ancak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131 daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, ABD tahvil getirilerindeki (faiz getirisi) y\u00fckseli\u015fin deste\u011fiyle 159,00 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131na kadar y\u00fckseldi. Parite a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde (fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede fazla y\u00fckselmesi) kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da ek y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.\n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 24 saatte 158,55 seviyesi korunursa parite 159,45 direncini test edebilir. 158,75 seviyesinde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck destek bulunuyor. 160,00\u2019a do\u011fru hareketin yak\u0131n vadede olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fi belirtiliyor.\n\n<h3>Near Term Outlook<\/h3>\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1\u20133 haftada 159,45\u2019in \u00fczerine k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, oda\u011f\u0131 160,00\u2019a \u00e7evirebilir. 158,00\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na ini\u015f; daha \u00f6nce g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen 157,20 ile birlikte, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder.\n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1\u20133 ayda USD\/JPY 159,45\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilir ancak momentumun (y\u00fckseli\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n) zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor. Ek y\u00fckseli\u015fin, 2024 zirvesi 162,00\u2019\u0131 zorlamas\u0131 beklenmiyor. 06 Mart 2026 tarihli 157,45 seviyesi referans olarak veriliyor.\n\nUSD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki beklenmedik ekonomik dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD getirilerinin artmas\u0131yla s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u015eubat 2026 ABD enflasyonu beklentiden y\u00fcksek gelerek %3,4 oldu; bu da Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz indiriminde acele etmeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadede odak 159,45 diren\u00e7 seviyesinde bulunuyor.\n\n<h3>Options Strategy Considerations<\/h3>\nBu tabloya g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, vadesi k\u0131sa al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011fu fiyat) 160,00\u2019a yak\u0131n se\u00e7meyi de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu strateji, 159,45 direncinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (zarar\u0131n \u00f6nceden bilindi\u011fi) kazan\u00e7 hedefler. Bu hafta z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanma) g\u00f6rece sakin; bu da opsiyon primlerini (opsiyonun bedeli) daha ula\u015f\u0131labilir k\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nBununla birlikte piyasa a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131mda ve 160,00 seviyesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc psikolojik e\u015fik. Bu seviye 2024\u2019te Japon yetkililerin m\u00fcdahalesini (kur hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 ad\u0131m) \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Yetkililer bu hafta s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lara ba\u015flad\u0131; bu da ani ve sert geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, uzun pozisyonlara kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) veya ay\u0131 put spread\u2019i (bear put spread: put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put satma) tercih edilebilir.\n\nDaha dengeli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak bo\u011fa call spread\u2019i (bull call spread: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla call satma) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin 159,50 call al\u0131p ayn\u0131 anda 160,50 call satmak, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ve 160,00\u2019a do\u011fru hareketten faydalan\u0131r; ayr\u0131ca \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 160,00 \u00fczeri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir s\u0131\u00e7rama beklenmedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumludur. Fed\u2019in hazirana kadar faiz indirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemesi dolar\u0131 destekliyor; ancak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketleri de s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.\n\n158,00 seviyesi kritik destek taban\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor; bu seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. 158,00\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 nakit teminatl\u0131 put satmak (cash-secured put: olas\u0131 al\u0131m i\u00e7in nakit ay\u0131rarak put satmak), prim geliri elde etme yolu olabilir. Bu, parite geri \u00e7ekilse bile faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n (iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131t\u0131r.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD tahvil getirileriyle USD\/JPY 159\u2019a dayand\u0131; a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. 24 saatte 158,55 \u00fcst\u00fc 159,45 test edilebilir. 158,00 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa risk zay\u0131flar; opsiyonda 160 yak\u0131n call\/call spread, putla koruma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30183","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30183","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30183"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30183\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30183"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30183"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30183"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}