{"id":30182,"date":"2026-03-12T12:03:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T12:03:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/mufgden-lloyd-chan-irak-ve-hurmuz-riskleri-ieanin-rezerv-salimi-etkisini-golgede-birakirken-brent-90-dolarin-uzerine-cikti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T12:03:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T12:03:10","slug":"mufgden-lloyd-chan-irak-ve-hurmuz-riskleri-ieanin-rezerv-salimi-etkisini-golgede-birakirken-brent-90-dolarin-uzerine-cikti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/mufgden-lloyd-chan-irak-ve-hurmuz-riskleri-ieanin-rezerv-salimi-etkisini-golgede-birakirken-brent-90-dolarin-uzerine-cikti\/","title":{"rendered":"MUFG\u2019den Lloyd Chan: Irak ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskleri, IEA\u2019n\u0131n rezerv sal\u0131m\u0131 etkisini g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131rken Brent 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"Brent petrol, Irak ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ba\u011fl\u0131 arz endi\u015felerinin, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (IEA) acil durum stoklar\u0131ndan 400 milyon varil petrol piyasaya s\u00fcrme plan\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakmas\u0131yla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Haberlere g\u00f6re Irak\u2019\u0131n petrol limanlar\u0131, Irak karasular\u0131nda iki petrol tankerinin hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan faaliyetlerini durdurdu.\n\nIEA\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 400 milyon varillik sat\u0131\u015f, \u015fimdiye kadarki en b\u00fcy\u00fck acil stok sat\u0131\u015f\u0131. Bu rakam, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgalinin ard\u0131ndan 2022\u2019de yap\u0131lan 183 milyon varillik sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. 400 milyon varil, k\u00fcresel petrol talebinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 g\u00fcn\u00fcne denk geliyor.\n\n<h3>H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 Arz Riski<\/h3>\nK\u00fcresel deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si her g\u00fcn H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7iyor; bu da kabaca g\u00fcnl\u00fck 20 milyon varil demek. Buradaki bir kesintinin, uzun s\u00fcreli olmas\u0131 halinde yerine koyman\u0131n zor oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.\n\n400 milyon varil 120 g\u00fcne yay\u0131larak piyasaya verilirse, g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,3 milyon varil eder. Bu miktar; Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131 gibi y\u00f6nlendirmeler (petrol\u00fcn ba\u015fka hatlara kayd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131) hesaba kat\u0131lsa bile, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 10\u201313 milyon varillik g\u00fcnl\u00fck arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihtimaline k\u0131yasla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>T\u00fcrev Stratejisi (T\u00fcrev \u00dcr\u00fcnler) A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h3>\nT\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn: de\u011feri petrol gibi bir dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek belirgin fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinin al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bullish) stratejiler, \u00f6rne\u011fin yaz aylar\u0131 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) 100 dolar civar\u0131nda al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyattan uzak, hemen k\u00e2rda olmayan) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) satmak da, prim (premium: opsiyon bedeli\/geliri) toplamak i\u00e7in uygun bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc belirgin bir fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\n2022\u2019de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgali sonras\u0131 piyasada da benzer bir tepki g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: \u0130lk stok sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 durdurmakta yetersiz kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek seviyede. Bu, opsiyon almay\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, opsiyon satarak elde edilebilecek geliri art\u0131rabilir. Y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k, piyasan\u0131n jeopolitik haberlere, koordineli arz ad\u0131mlar\u0131ndan daha fazla tepki vermeye devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Brent petrol 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: Irak limanlar\u0131n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski, IEA\u2019n\u0131n 400 milyon varillik dev stok sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakt\u0131. T\u00fcrevde geri \u00e7ekilmeler al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131; oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30182","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30182"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30182\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30182"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30182"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30182"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}