{"id":30180,"date":"2026-03-12T11:05:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T11:05:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bny-stratejisti-geoff-yu-snb-mudahale-edebilir-ancak-reel-efektif-kurlar-dikkate-alindiginda-frankin-gucunu-tolere-edebilir\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T11:05:32","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T11:05:32","slug":"bny-stratejisti-geoff-yu-snb-mudahale-edebilir-ancak-reel-efektif-kurlar-dikkate-alindiginda-frankin-gucunu-tolere-edebilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bny-stratejisti-geoff-yu-snb-mudahale-edebilir-ancak-reel-efektif-kurlar-dikkate-alindiginda-frankin-gucunu-tolere-edebilir\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY stratejisti Geoff Yu: SNB m\u00fcdahale edebilir; ancak reel efektif kurlar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda frank\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc tolere edebilir"},"content":{"rendered":"2 Mart\u2019ta \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB), Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya at\u0131fla d\u00f6viz (FX, yani para birimi) piyasalar\u0131na \u201cgiderek daha fazla m\u00fcdahale etmeye haz\u0131r\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Banka, para biriminin h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 ve \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskten ka\u00e7\u0131p y\u00f6neldi\u011fi varl\u0131k) giri\u015flerinin fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 (enflasyonun kontrol alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131) tehdit edebilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti.\n\n\u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131n euro b\u00f6lgesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ticaret ba\u011flar\u0131 var; bu durum, kurdaki de\u011fi\u015fimin fiyatlara h\u0131zl\u0131 yans\u0131mas\u0131na (kur ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi) yol a\u00e7abiliyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyonun daha y\u00fcksek seyretmesi, enflasyon fark\u0131 son y\u0131llarda geni\u015f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, euronun franga g\u00f6re reel efektif kurunu (REER: enflasyon fark\u0131 ve ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f \u201creel\u201d kur g\u00f6stergesi) yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebiliyor.\n\n

Nominal G\u00fc\u00e7 ve REER Dinamikleri<\/h3>\nFrank yeni nominal zirvelere (enflasyon dikkate al\u0131nmadan, \u201cetiket\u201d kur seviyeleri) yakla\u015f\u0131rken, REER son iki y\u0131lda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6sterdi. Bu tablo, SNB\u2019nin frang\u0131n nominal olarak bir miktar g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini tolere etmesine alan a\u00e7abilir.\n\nSNB\u2019nin gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda, daha geni\u015f bir politika de\u011fi\u015fimi sinyali vermekten \u00e7ok, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik taktik ad\u0131mlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. G\u00fcndeme gelen se\u00e7enekler aras\u0131nda, SNB\u2019nin bor\u00e7 kalemlerini azaltmas\u0131 i\u00e7in kendi \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 (SNB bills) geri almas\u0131 veya geri al\u0131m anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 (repo: menkul k\u0131ymet teminatl\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma\/bor\u00e7 verme i\u015flemi) vadesi geldi\u011finde yenilememesi yer al\u0131yor.\n\nPiyasa hareketi nominal s\u0131\u00e7rama \u00e7ok sert olursa, \u00f6rne\u011fin tek seansta birka\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck kademe (kurda belirgin, h\u0131zl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse gelebilir. Olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale, geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yumu\u015fatmay\u0131 hedefler.\n\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l da bu d\u00f6nemde, Mart 2025\u2019te, SNB d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu belirtmi\u015fti. Jeopolitik gerilimler nedeniyle \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131na g\u00fcvenli liman giri\u015fleri artm\u0131\u015f, banka da fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 bozabilecek h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011ferlenmeyi y\u00f6netmeyi ama\u00e7lam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\n\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ve Oynakl\u0131k \u00dczerindeki Etkiler<\/h3>\nSNB\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc franga tolerans\u0131, o d\u00f6nemde de \u015fimdi de REER dinamikleriyle destekleniyor. \u015eubat 2026\u2019da Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,4\u2019te kal\u0131rken \u0130svi\u00e7re t\u00fcketici enflasyonu (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) %1,3\u2019e yak\u0131n seyrediyor; bu enflasyon fark\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam ediyor. Bu da, frang\u0131n \u201creel\u201d olarak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli hale gelmeden nominal olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine SNB\u2019nin daha fazla alan tan\u0131mas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor.\n\n2025\u2019te bankan\u0131n hamleleri taktik nitelikteydi: ama\u00e7 belirli bir kur seviyesini hedeflemek de\u011fil, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamakt\u0131. 2025\u2019in ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde baz\u0131 seanslarda EUR\/CHF g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde sert hareketler g\u00f6stermi\u015f, ard\u0131ndan h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde yat\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, SNB\u2019nin \u201ckesin bir seviye savunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d, daha \u00e7ok oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 frenlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.\n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu, frang\u0131n sert ve d\u00fczensiz hareketlerinin m\u00fcdahaleyle kar\u015f\u0131lanabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. SNB\u2019nin \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc deste\u011fi, k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131kta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan stratejileri (k\u0131sa vadeli volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131: yak\u0131n vadeli opsiyonlarda \u201coynakl\u0131k primi\u201d kazanmay\u0131 hedefleyen yakla\u015f\u0131m) daha cazip hale getirebilir. \u00d6zellikle EUR\/CHF\u2019te 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi oynakl\u0131k) %4,8 civar\u0131nda; 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki dalgalanma d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclen %7 \u00fczeri zirvelere g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.\n\nBu nedenle, fiyat\u0131n bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131ndan (dar aral\u0131kta hareket) veya frang\u0131n yava\u015f ve istikrarl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev (derivative: de\u011feri kur\/faiz gibi bir ba\u015fka varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) pozisyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. EUR\/CHF veya USD\/CHF \u00fczerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d call (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m opsiyonu) satmak, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n opsiyon primi (opsiyonu satan\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelir) toplamas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir; bu da SNB\u2019nin sert oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 engelleme iste\u011finden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler. Ana risk, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n taktik yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fabilecek \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ani ve b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015fok geli\u015fmedir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar dikkat: SNB, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimiyle g\u00fcvenli liman frang\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse FX\u2019e daha s\u0131k m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r. REER sakin; hedef seviye de\u011fil oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bast\u0131rma. EUR\/CHF\u2019te volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 cazip.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30180","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30180"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30180\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30180"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30180"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30180"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}