{"id":30147,"date":"2026-03-12T04:01:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T04:01:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/commerzbanktan-moses-lim-petrol-fiyati-soklari-wonu-oynak-tutuyor-kore-merkez-bankasi-bant-araliginda-seyir-surerken-destek-veriyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T04:01:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T04:01:10","slug":"commerzbanktan-moses-lim-petrol-fiyati-soklari-wonu-oynak-tutuyor-kore-merkez-bankasi-bant-araliginda-seyir-surerken-destek-veriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/commerzbanktan-moses-lim-petrol-fiyati-soklari-wonu-oynak-tutuyor-kore-merkez-bankasi-bant-araliginda-seyir-surerken-destek-veriyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019tan Moses Lim: Petrol fiyat\u0131 \u015foklar\u0131 wonu oynak tutuyor; Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyir s\u00fcrerken destek veriyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin Orta Do\u011fu ham petrol\u00fcne olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, won\u2019da dalgalanmay\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. USD\/KRW Aral\u0131k 2025\u2019ten bu yana 1.420 ile 1.500 aras\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.\n\nY\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana KRW, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %1,8 de\u011fer kaybetti. Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoK), son won hareketlerini \u201cekonomik temeller\u201dden (b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon, d\u0131\u015f denge gibi ana g\u00f6stergeler) kopuk g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in, piyasaya m\u00fcdahale risklerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.\n\nMerkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdilik faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi bekleniyor. D\u00f6viz kuru istikrar\u0131na odaklan\u0131rken \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 benimsemesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nPiyasa deste\u011fi, hem yurti\u00e7i (onshore) hem de yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 (offshore) KRW piyasalar\u0131nda \u201cyumu\u015fatma\u201d i\u015flemlerini (kur hareketini sert ve ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar yerine daha kademeli hale getirmek i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) i\u00e7erebilir. Bu ad\u0131mlar merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervleriyle desteklenebilir.\n\nBrent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekte teslimat i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyatlanan petrol s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken, ithal petrole y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k nedeniyle Kore wonu \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 art\u0131yor. 2025 sonundaki veriler, ham petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %70\u2019inin Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bu durum, USD\/KRW paritesinin (iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki kur) 1.420\u20131.500 band\u0131nda dalgal\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor ve wonu k\u00fcresel enerji \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor.\n\nBoK, won\u2019daki de\u011fer kayb\u0131nda art\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 veriyor. Bu y\u0131l dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki %1,8\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n daha sert (hawkish: enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu vurgulayan) uyar\u0131lar\u0131, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale etme iste\u011finin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Banka, wonun mevcut seviyesini \u00fclkenin sa\u011flam ekonomik temelleriyle uyumsuz g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nT\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler: de\u011feri kur\/fiyat gibi bir ba\u015fka varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler), USD\/KRW\u2019de 1.500 seviyesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tavan gibi \u015fekilleniyor. 1.500\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak (call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131: kur y\u00fckselmezse prim geliri elde etmeyi hedefler) veya ay\u0131 call spread\u2019i kurmak (bear call spread: s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle y\u00fckseli\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda etkili bir strateji olabilir. BoK\u2019nin duru\u015fu, paritedeki daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015fin kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6rece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\n\nSon verilere g\u00f6re d\u00f6viz rezervleri 415 milyar dolar seviyesinde. 2022 ve 2023\u2019teki oynakl\u0131k d\u00f6nemlerinde benzer \u201cyumu\u015fatma\u201d ad\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu da m\u00fcdahale yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na dair ge\u00e7mi\u015f bir \u00f6rnek sunuyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc mali tampon, s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar\u0131 daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nMerkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n tonu sert olsa da, \u015fimdilik faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u015eubat ay\u0131 man\u015fet enflasyonunun %3,5\u2019e h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 bu s\u00f6ylemi destekliyor; ancak BoK, d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 (\u00f6rne\u011fin enerji fiyatlar\u0131) para politikas\u0131yla (faiz) de\u011fil, rezerv kullan\u0131m\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131lamay\u0131 tercih ediyor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesine dair i\u015faretleri takip etmek olmal\u0131.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Petrol 115 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde: Kore wonu yeniden bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya %70 ham petrol ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 USD\/KRW\u2019yi 1.420\u20131.500 band\u0131na kilitliyor; BoK faiz sabit, rezervle m\u00fcdahale sinyali veriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30147","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30147"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30147\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30147"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30147"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30147"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}