{"id":30141,"date":"2026-03-12T03:09:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T03:09:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abn-amro-analistleri-cin-iran-baglantili-petrol-ve-lng-arz-kesintisi-riskleriyle-karsi-karsiya-ancak-rezervler-yenilenebilirler-ve-cesitlendirilmis-ithalatla-tamponlaniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T03:09:50","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T03:09:50","slug":"abn-amro-analistleri-cin-iran-baglantili-petrol-ve-lng-arz-kesintisi-riskleriyle-karsi-karsiya-ancak-rezervler-yenilenebilirler-ve-cesitlendirilmis-ithalatla-tamponlaniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abn-amro-analistleri-cin-iran-baglantili-petrol-ve-lng-arz-kesintisi-riskleriyle-karsi-karsiya-ancak-rezervler-yenilenebilirler-ve-cesitlendirilmis-ithalatla-tamponlaniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABN AMRO analistleri: \u00c7in, \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 petrol ve LNG arz kesintisi riskleriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; ancak rezervler, yenilenebilirler ve \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmi\u015f ithalatla tamponlan\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"\u00c7in, ithal enerjiye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan gelen petrol ile LNG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz; ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck s\u0131cakl\u0131kta s\u0131v\u0131 hale getirilen do\u011fal gaz) tedarikinde, \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 riskler dahil, kesintilerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilir. \u00c7in petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %73\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc ithal ediyor; bu ithalat\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %40\u2019\u0131 ba\u015fta Suudi Arabistan ve Irak olmak \u00fczere Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan, yakla\u015f\u0131k %10\u2019u ise \u0130ran\u2019dan geliyor.\n\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te biri ve LNG\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte biri \u00c7in\u2019e gidiyor. \u00c7inli yetkililer, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131nda \u201ct\u00fcm taraflara\u201d askeri faaliyetleri azaltma, gerilimi t\u0131rmand\u0131rmama ve bo\u011fazdan gemilerin g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015fini sa\u011flama \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131.\n\n

Enerji Arz\u0131nda Tamponlar ve \u00c7e\u015fitlendirme<\/h3>\n\u00c7in, fiyatlar daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckken enerji stoklayarak tampon olu\u015fturdu; toplam petrol rezervinin t\u00fcketimi yakla\u015f\u0131k 80 g\u00fcn kar\u015f\u0131layabildi\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. \u0130thalat kaynaklar\u0131 \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmi\u015f durumda ve Rusya\u2019dan petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.\n\n\u00c7in, fosil yak\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (k\u00f6m\u00fcr, petrol ve gaz d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki kaynaklar) elektrik kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 da y\u00fckseltiyor; yenilenebilir kaynaklardan elektrik \u00fcretimi 2025\u2019te yakla\u015f\u0131k %40\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya kar\u015f\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmet, b\u00fcy\u00fck rafinerilere dizel ve benzin ihracat\u0131n\u0131 durdurma talimat\u0131 verdi.\n\nDaha y\u00fcksek petrol ve gaz fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyonu art\u0131rabilir. \u00c7in\u2019in ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 enflasyon seviyesi ABD ve Avrupa\u2019ya g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Enflasyonun daha kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi, \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (PBoC; para politikas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcten kurum) k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 faiz indirimleri konusunda daha temkinli yapabilir.\n\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131ldan beri s\u00fcren Orta Do\u011fu gerginli\u011fi nedeniyle enerji maliyetlerinin PBoC \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Brent petrol (k\u00fcresel petrol fiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in referans) bu ay varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, ithal enflasyon (d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan al\u0131nan \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin pahalanmas\u0131yla fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi) riski belirgin. \u00c7in\u2019in \u015fubat T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisi %1,8 ile bu e\u011filimi do\u011frulad\u0131 ve \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti.\n\n

Politika ve Varl\u0131klar \u0130\u00e7in Piyasa Etkileri<\/h3>\nBu s\u00fcren fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131, PBoC\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ek parasal gev\u015feme (faiz indirimi ve likidite art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi ad\u0131mlar) konusunda \u00e7ok temkinli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. 2022 enerji krizinden sonra g\u00f6r\u00fclen geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli gev\u015femenin aksine, mevcut ko\u015fullar bankan\u0131n hareket alan\u0131n\u0131 daralt\u0131yor. Bu nedenle faiz indirimi beklentileri yeniden ayarlanabilir; bu durum yuan cinsinden faiz oran\u0131 swaplar\u0131na (faiz takas\u0131; sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin de\u011fi\u015f toku\u015f edildi\u011fi t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) yans\u0131yabilir.\n\nKur piyasas\u0131nda, gev\u015feme alan\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131 yuana destek sa\u011flayabilir ve sert de\u011fer kayb\u0131na oynayan pozisyonlar\u0131 daha riskli hale getirebilir. ABD dolar\u0131yla faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n (iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki faiz getirisi fark\u0131) buradan belirgin bi\u00e7imde a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bu durum, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yatay ya da hafif g\u00fc\u00e7lenen yuan senaryosundan faydalanan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.\n\nBu tablo, \u00c7in hisseleri i\u00e7in de olumsuz bir unsur; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasalar \u0447\u0430\u0441\u0442\u043e politika deste\u011fiyle y\u00fckseliyor. S\u00fcren belirsizlik, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131na yans\u0131yor: Hang Seng Endeksi opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %15 artt\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, hisse portf\u00f6ylerini put opsiyonlar\u0131yla (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) korumas\u0131 beklenebilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski masada: \u00c7in, Orta Do\u011fu ve \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 petrol-LNG kesintileriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. 80 g\u00fcnl\u00fck stok tamponu var; ancak y\u00fcksek Brent enflasyonu art\u0131r\u0131p PBoC gev\u015femesini k\u0131s\u0131tlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30141","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30141"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30141\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30141"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30141"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30141"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}