{"id":30140,"date":"2026-03-12T03:09:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T03:09:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/commerzbanktan-ghose-ab-fonlarina-veto-endiseleri-ve-2027deki-asiri-sag-meydan-okumasi-golgesinde-polonyadaki-siyasi-belirsizlik-zlotiyi-baskilayabilir\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T03:09:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T03:09:08","slug":"commerzbanktan-ghose-ab-fonlarina-veto-endiseleri-ve-2027deki-asiri-sag-meydan-okumasi-golgesinde-polonyadaki-siyasi-belirsizlik-zlotiyi-baskilayabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/commerzbanktan-ghose-ab-fonlarina-veto-endiseleri-ve-2027deki-asiri-sag-meydan-okumasi-golgesinde-polonyadaki-siyasi-belirsizlik-zlotiyi-baskilayabilir\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019tan Ghose: AB fonlar\u0131na veto endi\u015feleri ve 2027\u2019deki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011f meydan okumas\u0131 g\u00f6lgesinde Polonya\u2019daki siyasi belirsizlik zlotiyi bask\u0131layabilir"},"content":{"rendered":"Polonya\u2019da siyasi belirsizlik art\u0131yor. AB\u2019nin savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmeye y\u00f6nelik mevzuat\u0131nda (yasa tasar\u0131s\u0131) olas\u0131 bir veto g\u00fcndemde. H\u00fck\u00fcmet, veto tasar\u0131y\u0131 engellerse alternatif bir \u201cB plan\u0131\u201dna ihtiya\u00e7 duyabilece\u011fini belirtti.\n\nMuhalefetteki Hukuk ve Adalet Partisi (PiS), 2027 sonbahar\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak genel se\u00e7im i\u00e7in eski e\u011fitim bakan\u0131 Przemyslaw Czarnek\u2019i ba\u015fbakan aday\u0131 se\u00e7ti. Banka, PiS\u2019in eski ba\u015fbakan Mateusz Morawiecki\u2019ye yak\u0131n, daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 kanattan bir ismi tercih etmedi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti.\n\nCommerzbank, i\u00e7 siyasetteki riskler nedeniyle Polonya zlotisinin (PLN) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l b\u00f6lgedeki benzer para birimlerinin gerisinde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nPolonya\u2019da artan siyasi gerilim, zlotinin b\u00f6lgedeki di\u011fer para birimlerine k\u0131yasla zay\u0131f performans\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Muhalefetin 2027 se\u00e7imi i\u00e7in sert sa\u011f bir ismi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131, uzla\u015fmadan \u00e7ok \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma stratejisini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da aylard\u0131r izlenen siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 derinle\u015ftiriyor.\n\nBu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Polonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (NBP) politika faizini (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomideki kredi maliyetini belirleyen ana faiz oran\u0131) bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir %5,75\u2019te y\u00fcksek seviyede tutmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ge\u00e7erli. Enflasyon 2025\u2019teki zirvelerinden gerilese de, h\u00e2l\u00e2 merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hedefinin \u00fczerinde ve diren\u00e7li. Zlotinin, y\u00fcksek faiz getirisinin (faiz oran\u0131 y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in teorik olarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 \u00e7ekme g\u00fcc\u00fc) deste\u011fine ra\u011fmen g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanamamas\u0131, siyasetin para birimi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nBu ko\u015fullarda, zlotiyi benzer para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 (\u00f6rne\u011fin \u00c7ek korunas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda) \u201csatmak\u201d (k\u0131sa pozisyon almak; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedeflemek) makul bir strateji olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2025\u2019in son aylar\u0131nda zlotinin korunaya g\u00f6re daha zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 izlendi ve bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Bu \u201cg\u00f6reli de\u011fer i\u015flemi\u201d (iki varl\u0131k aras\u0131ndaki performans fark\u0131na oynayan i\u015flem), b\u00f6lge genelindeki havadan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak Polonya\u2019ya \u00f6zg\u00fc siyasi riski \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.\n\nArtan belirsizlik, kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n daha sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fckselmesine de i\u015faret ediyor. Euro-zloti paritesinde \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %6\u2019dan %8\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. Zloti \u00fczerine \u201csat\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (put; belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131, kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar) almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131na pozisyon almak i\u00e7in etkili olabilir.\n\nYak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde izlenecek ba\u015fl\u0131ca tetikleyici, AB fonlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin mevzuat\u0131n veto edilme ihtimali. 2025 boyunca \u201chukukun \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki benzer anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar hat\u0131rlan\u0131rken, yeni bir blokaj\u0131n kurda olumsuz tepkiyi b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla tetikleyece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu nedenle zlotide d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar \u015fu a\u015famada daha \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Polonya\u2019da siyaset \u0131s\u0131n\u0131yor: AB savunma fonu yasas\u0131nda olas\u0131 veto ve PiS\u2019in sert aday tercihi zlotiyi bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Commerzbank, PLN\u2019nin geri kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, volatilitenin artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30140","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30140"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30140\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}