{"id":30133,"date":"2026-03-12T00:07:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T00:07:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/standard-chartereddan-bader-al-sarraf-misir-merkez-bankasinin-fy26ya-kadar-faizi-%19da-tutmasini-ardindan-2026-sonuna-kadar-%13e-indirmesini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T00:07:32","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T00:07:32","slug":"standard-chartereddan-bader-al-sarraf-misir-merkez-bankasinin-fy26ya-kadar-faizi-%19da-tutmasini-ardindan-2026-sonuna-kadar-%13e-indirmesini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/standard-chartereddan-bader-al-sarraf-misir-merkez-bankasinin-fy26ya-kadar-faizi-%19da-tutmasini-ardindan-2026-sonuna-kadar-%13e-indirmesini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Standard Chartered\u2019dan Bader Al Sarraf, M\u0131s\u0131r Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n FY26\u2019ya kadar faizi %19\u2019da tutmas\u0131n\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 2026 sonuna kadar %13\u2019e indirmesini bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Standard Chartered, M\u0131s\u0131r Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (CBE) politika faizini 2026 mali y\u0131l\u0131 (Haziran\u2019da bitiyor) boyunca %19\u2019da tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bu, yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentisinin \u00f6telendi\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Banka yine de 2026 sonuna kadar politika faizinin %13\u2019e inmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; ko\u015fullar dengelenirse gev\u015femenin (faiz indirimlerinin) 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\nEnflasyon yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. Yak\u0131t fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda ula\u015ft\u0131rma ve \u00fcretim maliyetlerine yans\u0131mas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu durum, enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz riskini ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 (kredi\/finansmana eri\u015fimin zorla\u015fmas\u0131 ve maliyetlerin artmas\u0131) art\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>M\u0131s\u0131r Poundu \u00dczerindeki Bask\u0131 Art\u0131yor<\/h3>\nM\u0131s\u0131r poundu yeniden bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. USD\/EGP (ABD dolar\u0131\/M\u0131s\u0131r poundu) kurunun resmi piyasada son d\u00f6nemde 53 seviyesine yak\u0131n, rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeylerde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor. Portf\u00f6y \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n tahvil\/hisse gibi varl\u0131klardan para \u00e7ekmesi) da bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00f6viz likiditesi (piyasada kullan\u0131labilir d\u00f6viz bulunabilirli\u011fi) ve iyile\u015fen net yabanc\u0131 varl\u0131klar (bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminin d\u00f6viz varl\u0131klar\u0131 eksi y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri) kur piyasas\u0131n\u0131 dengeleyebilecek unsurlar olarak g\u00f6steriliyor. Bu tamponlar, \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamaya ve 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde daha fazla faiz indirimine alan a\u00e7maya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.\n\nM\u0131s\u0131r Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Haziran\u2019da biten mali y\u0131l boyunca politika faizini %19\u2019da tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu tablo, yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi bekleyenler i\u00e7in dengeleri de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. K\u0131sa s\u00fcrede gev\u015feme bekleyen pozisyonlar\u0131n yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekecek.\n\nBu duraklaman\u0131n ana nedeni, piyasan\u0131n temel hassasiyeti olan enflasyondaki toparlanma. CAPMAS\u2019\u0131n (M\u0131s\u0131r resmi istatistik kurumu) verilerine g\u00f6re \u015eubat\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k kentsel enflasyon %36,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminden d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131. Bu s\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015f, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu a\u015famada faiz indirmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>Faiz ve Kur \u0130\u015flemlerine Etkiler<\/h3>\nM\u0131s\u0131r poundu \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; kur bu hafta dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 53 seviyesinin \u00fczerine zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bu seviye, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fer kayb\u0131 sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen dipleri hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. \u0130\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, temkinli olma gere\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor ve k\u0131sa vadede EGP aleyhine pozisyonlar\u0131n (poundun de\u011fer kayb\u0131na oynayan i\u015flemler) kazan\u00e7l\u0131 kalabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\n\nBelirsizlik nedeniyle USD\/EGP\u2019de opsiyonlarla \u201cvolatilite\u201d almak (kurun sert hareketinden faydalanmak) mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte alma) stratejisi, kurun hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011fini tahmin etmeden, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefler. Son d\u00f6rt haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,2 milyar dolarl\u0131k portf\u00f6y \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011fu tahmin ediliyor; bu da piyasada oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n) s\u00fcrmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.\n\nFaiz t\u00fcrevleri (faize ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) taraf\u0131nda ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyonlar\u0131n g\u00fcncellenmesi gerekebilir. Buna yak\u0131n vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (futures) sat\u0131\u015f ya da payer swap (faizin y\u00fckselmesine\/sabit faiz \u00f6demeye dayal\u0131 swap; faiz y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) gibi ara\u00e7lar dahil olabilir. H\u0131zl\u0131 bir gev\u015femeye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f beklentisi, en az\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na kadar rafa kalkm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n\n2026 sonuna kadar %13\u2019e ini\u015f beklentisi korunuyor olsa da bu hedef \u015fu an i\u00e7in uzak. Yak\u0131n vadede odak, enflasyon ve son yak\u0131t zamlar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar olacak. Bu unsurlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 belirlemesi bekleniyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u015eok senaryo: Standard Chartered, M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da CBE\u2019nin faizi 2026 mali y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca %19\u2019da tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, enflasyon-kur bask\u0131s\u0131yla indirimlerin \u00f6telenip 2026 sonuna do\u011fru %13 hedeflenece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30133","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30133"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30133\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30133"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30133"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30133"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}